The International Monetary Fund has cut its expansion forecast for Middle Eastern economies on the back of oil production caps and the Israel-Gaza war.
The world economy, which showed resilience last year, is in a “sticky spot” with the slowing pace of disinflation and prospects of a higher-for-longer interest rates regime looming large, the Washington-based fund said in the latest update of its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.
The IMF has maintained its 2024 global growth projection at 3.2 per cent and expects the world economy to expand at a slightly faster pace of 3.3 per cent in 2025, in line with its forecast released in April.
Though the economic forecast is broadly unchanged for this year and next, “under the hood, however, offsetting growth revisions have shifted the composition”, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.
“Overall, risks to the outlook remain balanced … but some near-term risks have gained prominence.”
Inflation risk
Despite the global success in taming inflation, the IMF said it remains the biggest concern.
Global inflation is broadly on track to slow to 5.9 per cent this year, from 6.7 per cent last year, as projected, but in some advanced economies, especially the US, progress on disinflation has slowed “and risks are to the upside”, the IMF said.
“The momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signalling bumps along the path.”
Further challenges to disinflation could force central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to keep borrowing costs higher for even longer, which would put overall growth at risk, with increased upward pressure on the dollar and harmful spillovers to emerging and developing economies.
“Mounting empirical evidence, including some of our own, points to the importance of global headline inflation shocks – mostly energy and food prices – in driving the inflation surge and subsequent decline across a broad range of countries,” Mr Gourinchas said.
“The good news is that, as headline shocks receded, inflation came down without a recession. The bad news is that energy and food price inflation are now almost back to pre-pandemic levels in many countries, while overall inflation is not.”
Slower Middle East growth
Though inflation remains a concern in some oil-importing economies in the Middle East, the growth prospects are largely dented by the continuing conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Middle East and North African economies face a significant degree of uncertainty this year as the conflict threatens to spill into the broader region.
The IMF, which cut its 2024 Middle East and Central Asia growth forecast in April by 0.6 percentage points to 2.7 per cent, again lowered the projection by 0.4 percentage points to 2.4 per cent expansion this year.
The fund also revised its 2025 economic growth outlook for Mena by 0.4 percentage points to 4 per cent.
Growth forecast in Saudi Arabia, the biggest Arab economy, has also been revised downward by 0.9 percentage points to 1.7 per cent for 2024 and down 1.3 percentage points to 4.7 per cent growth in 2025.
“The adjustment reflects mainly the extension of oil production cuts,” the IMF said.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter of oil, benefitted from the rally in crude prices that have risen about 10 per cent this year on the back of production cuts by the Opec+ group.
Last month, Opec+ agreed to extend output cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day, which were initially planned to end this year, until the end of 2025.
At the same time, the additional 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cuts of eight Opec+ member states were extended by three months until the end of September.
Advanced economies
The IMF’s projection for economic expansion this year is below the historical growth average of the world economy.
The fund said although the first quarter growth surprised on the upside in many countries, downside surprises in Japan and the US were notable.
“In the United States, after a sustained period of strong outperformance, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth reflected moderating consumption and a negative contribution from net trade,” the IMF said.
“In Japan, the negative growth surprise stemmed from temporary supply disruptions linked to the shutdown of a major automobile plant in the first quarter.”
The IMF expects advanced economies to overall expand by 1.7 per cent this year, and 1.8 per cent next, in line with its April forecast.
In the US, projected growth is revised downward to 2.6 per cent for this year, 0.1 percentage point lower than projected in April, reflecting the slower-than-expected start to the year.
Growth in the world’s biggest economy is expected to slow to 1.9 per cent in 2025 as the labour market cools and consumption moderates, with fiscal policy starting to tighten gradually.
In the euro area, activity appears to have bottomed out and the IMF expects a modest pickup of 0.9 per cent this year – an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point – driven by stronger momentum in services and higher-than-expected net exports in the first half of the year.
Growth in the economic bloc is projected to rise to 1.5 per cent in 2025.
Engine of global growth
The fund said Asia’s emerging market economies remain the “main engine for the global economy” this year, as it revised upwards growth projections for China and India that account for almost half of global growth.
The IMF expects emerging and middle-income economies to grow by 4.2 per cent this year and next, up 0.1 percentage point from its April forecast.
China’s economy is slated to grow by 5 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent in 2025, 0.4 percentage point faster than estimates in April.
“In China, resurgent domestic consumption propelled the positive upside in the first quarter, aided by what looked to be a temporary surge in exports belatedly reconnecting with last year’s rise in global demand,” the IMF said.
The fund expects India’s economy to expand by 7 per cent this year, 0.2 percentage points quicker than April estimates. It is set to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2025.
The five pillars of Islam
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE SPECS
GMC Sierra Denali 1500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Price: Dh232,500
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Sting & Shaggy
44/876
(Interscope)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Crime%20Wave
%3Cp%3EHeavyweight%20boxer%20Fury%20revealed%20on%20Sunday%20his%20cousin%20had%20been%20%E2%80%9Cstabbed%20in%20the%20neck%E2%80%9D%20and%20called%20on%20the%20courts%20to%20address%20the%20wave%20of%20more%20sentencing%20of%20offenders.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERico%20Burton%2C%2031%2C%20was%20found%20with%20stab%20wounds%20at%20around%203am%20on%20Sunday%20in%20Goose%20Green%2C%20Altrincham%20and%20subsequently%20died%20of%20his%20injuries.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%26nbsp%3B%E2%80%9CMy%20cousin%20was%20murdered%20last%20night%2C%20stabbed%20in%20the%20neck%20this%20is%20becoming%20ridiculous%20%E2%80%A6%20idiots%20carry%20knives.%20This%20needs%20to%20stop%2C%E2%80%9D%0D%20Fury%20said.%20%E2%80%9CAsap%2C%20UK%20government%20needs%20to%20bring%20higher%20sentencing%20for%20knife%20crime%2C%20it%E2%80%99s%20a%20pandemic%20%26amp%3B%20you%20don%E2%80%99t%20know%20how%20bad%20it%20is%20until%20%5Bit%E2%80%99s%5D%201%20of%20your%20own!%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
UAE SQUAD
Ali Khaseif, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Khalid Essa, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Salem Rashid, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Mohammed Al Attas, Walid Abbas, Hassan Al Mahrami, Mahmoud Khamis, Alhassan Saleh, Ali Salmeen, Yahia Nader, Abdullah Ramadan, Majed Hassan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Fabio De Lima, Khalil Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Muhammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani, Caio Canedo, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
The%20US%20Congress%20explained
%3Cp%3E-%20Congress%20is%20one%20of%20three%20branches%20of%20the%20US%20government%2C%20and%20the%20one%20that%20creates%20the%20nation's%20federal%20laws%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20Congress%20is%20divided%20into%20two%20chambers%3A%20The%20House%20of%20Representatives%20and%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%C2%A0The%20House%20is%20made%20up%20of%20435%20members%20based%20on%20a%20state's%20population.%20House%20members%20are%20up%20for%20election%20every%20two%20years%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20bill%20must%20be%20approved%20by%20both%20the%20House%20and%20Senate%20before%20it%20goes%20to%20the%20president's%20desk%20for%20signature%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20political%20party%20needs%20218%20seats%20to%20be%20in%20control%20of%20the%20House%20of%20Representatives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20The%20Senate%20is%20comprised%20of%20100%20members%2C%20with%20each%20state%20receiving%20two%20senators.%20Senate%20members%20serve%20six-year%20terms%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20political%20party%20needs%2051%20seats%20to%20control%20the%20Senate.%20In%20the%20case%20of%20a%2050-50%20tie%2C%20the%20party%20of%20the%20president%20controls%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
Men
1 Marius Kipserem (KEN) 2:04:04
2 Abraham Kiptum (KEN) 2:04:16
3 Dejene Debela Gonfra (ETH) 2:07:06
4 Thomas Rono (KEN) 2:07:12
5 Stanley Biwott (KEN) 2:09:18
Women
1 Ababel Yeshaneh (ETH) 2:20:16
2 Eunice Chumba (BRN) 2:20:54
3 Gelete Burka (ETH) 2:24:07
4 Chaltu Tafa (ETH) 2:25:09
5 Caroline Kilel (KEN) 2:29:14
SERIE A FIXTURES
Friday Sassuolo v Torino (Kick-off 10.45pm UAE)
Saturday Atalanta v Sampdoria (5pm),
Genoa v Inter Milan (8pm),
Lazio v Bologna (10.45pm)
Sunday Cagliari v Crotone (3.30pm)
Benevento v Napoli (6pm)
Parma v Spezia (6pm)
Fiorentina v Udinese (9pm)
Juventus v Hellas Verona (11.45pm)
Monday AC Milan v AS Roma (11.45pm)
The biog
Favourite car: Ferrari
Likes the colour: Black
Best movie: Avatar
Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy
Fixtures
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWednesday%2C%20April%203%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EArsenal%20v%20Luton%20Town%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Aston%20Villa%2C%2011.15pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EThursday%2C%20April%204%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELiverpool%20v%20Sheffield%20United%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
RESULT
Huddersfield Town 1 Manchester City 2
Huddersfield: Otamendi (45' 1 og), van La Parra (red card 90' 6)
Man City: Agüero (47' pen), Sterling (84')
Man of the match: Christopher Schindler (Huddersfield Town)
Meydan racecard:
6.30pm: Handicap | US$135,000 (Dirt) | 1,400 metres
7.05pm: Handicap | $135,000 (Turf) | 1,200m
7.40pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (T) | 2,000m
8.15pm: UAE Oaks | Group 3 | $250,000 (D) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile | Group 2 | $250,000 (T) | 1,600m
9.20pm: Handicap | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Ukraine v Portugal, Monday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE’s revised Cricket World Cup League Two schedule
August, 2021: Host - United States; Teams - UAE, United States and Scotland
Between September and November, 2021 (dates TBC): Host - Namibia; Teams - Namibia, Oman, UAE
December, 2021: Host - UAE; Teams - UAE, Namibia, Oman
February, 2022: Hosts - Nepal; Teams - UAE, Nepal, PNG
June, 2022: Hosts - Scotland; Teams - UAE, United States, Scotland
September, 2022: Hosts - PNG; Teams - UAE, PNG, Nepal
February, 2023: Hosts - UAE; Teams - UAE, PNG, Nepal
KYLIAN MBAPPE 2016/17 STATS
Ligue 1: Appearances - 29, Goals - 15, Assists - 8
UCL: Appearances - 9, Goals - 6
French Cup: Appearances - 3, Goals - 3
France U19: Appearances - 5, Goals - 5, Assists - 1
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
PFA Premier League team of 2018-19
Allison (Liverpool)
Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool)
Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City)
Andrew Robertson (Liverpool)
Paul Pogba (Manchester United)
Fernandinho (Manchester City)
Bernardo Silva (Manchester City)
Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Scorline
Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq Hussein 28’
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
