The final phase in Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's inflation battle is set to collide with another obstacle – the 2024 presidential election.
This sits ahead of a tipping point expected on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will announce whether it will cut interest rates for the first time since March 2020.
Interest rates are already a partisan issue going into November, where the economy and inflation are seen as the big issue for voters. Republican politicians warn that cutting rates would harm the Federal Reserve's credibility. Democrats have called on the Fed to cut rates for months.
Mr Powell has paid those directions little notice, instead using public appearances to repeat his data-driven narrative.
Today, the data points towards a rate cut. The Fed's preferred inflation measure is at 2.5 per cent and seen as on a sustainable path back to the Fed's 2 per cent goal. The labour market is softening, with the unemployment rate now at 4.2 per cent.
Now, Mr Powell aims to stick to the landing.
Doing so will require a careful calibration of interest rate cuts to not send the economy tipping into a recession.
But looming behind the 2024 election is the potential return to office for Donald Trump, whose recent comments threaten to undermine the Fed's independence.
“I feel the president should have at least [a] say in” monetary policy decisions, Mr Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, about a month ago.
“I think that in my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman,” said the former president on August 8.
Should he return to office, Mr Trump could dismantle the guardrails that have protected the Fed for decades, said David Wilcox, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and director of US economic research at Bloomberg Economics.
“The potential for institutional damage is quite great, and the task of repairing any damage along those lines would be the work of many, many years, if not decades,” Mr Wilcox told The National.
A near-sacred principle
The consensus among economists is clear – politicians should not interfere with central banks.
Mainstream economists argue independent central banks are best equipped to tackle inflation because of their long-term view, as opposed to an electoral focus. Independent central banks also help to anchor inflation expectations, which is critical to price stability.
“The record is pretty clear that that's a good, intentional arrangement that serves the public well,” Mr Powell told politicians in July.
While the Fed is accountable to Congress, it enjoys broad independence to implement monetary policy decisions, and for the most part, without political pressure. This level of independence helps to secure the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.
The Fed's independence is “critical”, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist Oxford Economics.
"A tremendous amount of research has shown that countries with independent central banks have more economic stability," he said.
"When inflation is typically lower, the labour markets perform better. So shielding ... any central bank from political pressure is typically in the best interest of the economy."
Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has said she would never interfere with the Fed's independence.
When politics interfere
The Fed has not always taken the long-term view.
This year's electoral cycle conjures memories of former Fed chairman Arthur Burns, who caved in under pressure by president Richard Nixon to cut rates in 1970 even when the economy showed signs of overheating. Mr Nixon won re-election two years later, but the resulting decades were defined by a period of stagflation.
One of the more recent examples comes from Turkey, whose inflation rate is currently 51.97 per cent as of late August, according to New York-based economic statistics monitor Trading Economics.
Under pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish central bank began cutting rates in 2021 even during a time of soaring inflation to encourage more capital investment. The gambit failed and the inflation rate climbed to a peak of 85 per cent.
Most recently, central banks in Brazil and Thailand have come under pressure from their governments, although they have so far fended off the pressure.
“The track record, both in the United States and around the globe, is pretty clear that when political figures become involved in day-to-day monetary policy decision making, the economic performance of that country tends to deteriorate,” Mr Wilcox said.
Trump's shadow looms
“This is the bad idea of all bad ideas,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US, wrote in a social media post at the time.
Mr Trump's campaign distanced itself from the report at the time, but the Republican nominee did little to downplay concerns last month.
With Mr Powell's term set to expire in 2026, the next president will have the opportunity to nominate the next Fed chairman. Mr Trump nominated Mr Powell to the position in 2018 to succeed Janet Yellen, although clashed with his appointee and went so far as to question if the Fed chairman was an enemy to the US in 2019.
Mr Trump told Bloomberg in July he would not try to fire Mr Powell, whose term as Fed chairman expires in 2026 and as governor in 2028, if he returns to the Oval Office. No Fed chairman or woman has been fired, and it is uncertain if the president has the authority to do so.
Mr Powell has said he intends to serve his full term as chairman.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
U19 World Cup in South Africa
Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies
Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe
Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE
UAE fixtures
Saturday, January 18, v Canada
Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan
Saturday, January 25, v South Africa
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
Brave CF 27 fight card
Welterweight:
Abdoul Abdouraguimov (champion, FRA) v Jarrah Al Selawe (JOR)
Lightweight:
Anas Siraj Mounir (TUN) v Alex Martinez (CAN)
Welterweight:
Mzwandile Hlongwa (RSA) v Khamzat Chimaev (SWE)
Middleweight:
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Rustam Chsiev (RUS)
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) v Christofer Silva (BRA)
Super lightweight:
Alex Nacfur (BRA) v Dwight Brooks (USA)
Bantamweight:
Jalal Al Daaja (JOR) v Tariq Ismail (CAN)
Chris Corton (PHI) v Zia Mashwani (PAK)
Featherweight:
Sulaiman (KUW) v Abdullatip (RUS)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) v Mohammad Al Katib (JOR)
Company%C2%A0profile
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
HOSTS
T20 WORLD CUP
2024: US and West Indies; 2026: India and Sri Lanka; 2028: Australia and New Zealand; 2030: England, Ireland and Scotland
ODI WORLD CUP
2027: South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia; 2031: India and
Bangladesh
CHAMPIONS TROPHY
2025: Pakistan; 2029: India
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
The specs: 2017 Porsche 718 Cayman
Price, base / as tested Dh222,500 / Dh296,870
Engine 2.0L, flat four-cylinder
Transmission Seven-speed PDK
Power 300hp @ 6,500rpm
Torque 380hp @ 1,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.9L / 100km
THE DEALS
Hamilton $60m x 2 = $120m
Vettel $45m x 2 = $90m
Ricciardo $35m x 2 = $70m
Verstappen $55m x 3 = $165m
Leclerc $20m x 2 = $40m
TOTAL $485m
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km
Price: from Dh285,000
On sale: from January 2022
Fireball
Moscow claimed it hit the largest military fuel storage facility in Ukraine, triggering a huge fireball at the site.
A plume of black smoke rose from a fuel storage facility in the village of Kalynivka outside Kyiv on Friday after Russia said it had destroyed the military site with Kalibr cruise missiles.
"On the evening of March 24, Kalibr high-precision sea-based cruise missiles attacked a fuel base in the village of Kalynivka near Kyiv," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.
Ukraine confirmed the strike, saying the village some 40 kilometres south-west of Kyiv was targeted.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
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The specs: 2019 Aston Martin DBS Superleggera
Price, base: Dh1.2 million
Engine: 5.2-litre twin-turbo V12
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 725hp @ 6,500pm
Torque: 900Nm @ 1,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.3L / 100km (estimate)
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
If you go
Flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.
The stay
Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
