The trend of globalisation will continue, despite the election of Donald Trump as the next US president, while trade will also keep growing with the Gulf region set to benefit from its safe haven status, according to analysts.
Mr Trump has vowed to impose US tariffs of between 10 per cent to 20 per cent on all imported goods – which has raised fears of a global trade war and supply chain disruptions. There are concerns that it will reignite inflation and lead to stagnant growth.
“US presidents come and go, so I wouldn't see that the whole world is changing. Globalisation is here to stay,” said Dr Frank Jurgen Richter, chairman of think tank Horasis.
“The whole order based on trade, on intellectual property exchange, manufacturing in one place, services on the other side, I don't really think that the tariffs [that Mr Trump plans to impose] will change a lot of things,” he told The National on the sidelines of the Horasis event in Dubai on Tuesday.
I wouldn't underestimate the capacity of mankind to find solutions, even with President Trump in power
Dr Frank Jurgen Richter,
chairman of think tank Horasis
There is a lot of uncertainty in places like Europe, with manufacturers fearing that tariffs might suddenly go up for them, he said. However, in the long run, they will have to revise their strategies and “find solutions that can overcome the situation”, maybe moving some of the manufacturing to the US, or discovering new places for trade, like in Asia or Africa.
“I wouldn't underestimate the capacity of mankind to find solutions, even with President Trump in power.”
The US president-elect has also pledged to impose tariffs of between 60 per cent to 100 per cent on Chinese imports as part of its "America First" trade measures.
But, all of this is “political puffery”, said Mishal Kanoo, chairman of the Kanoo Group, with the impact likely to be felt by American consumers rather than by China.
“I've never seen sanctions benefit or harm one country over the other, but I have seen them harm or benefit societies or populations,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the event.
While China has not recovered back to the double-digit growth rates post Covid, mainly due to domestic challenges such as its real estate sector crash, the country will find alternative markets to deal with the tariffs, said Mr Richter.
“China is also re-adapting its economic policies. In the past, it was just enough to put money into infrastructure. I think this time is over, and also the era of cheap manufacturing. Now, this cheap manufacturing is moving to places like Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, and they [China] only keep high value-added services in telecom, in electric cars, in AI – actually China is like a main leader and challenging the US. So, competition is good. It can't be that just one country is leading.”
Supply chains and trade have been heavily disrupted since last year due to geopolitical tensions such as the Red Sea crisis. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking shipping vessels in the Red Sea, a critical conduit for 30 per cent of the world's container traffic, in a show of solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, forcing mariners to take long-haul alternative routes.
“Sometimes the [trade] cycle is going to be positive, [sometimes] it is going to be negative,” Mr Kanoo said.
“The overall picture is, is trade happening globally? The answer is yes. Is it continuing to grow? The answer is yes. Is it costing more? Perhaps, depending on where you are, it costs more. Is it stopping business? No. As more and more people demand more and more, there'll be more demand for growth in freight and global shipping.”
Meanwhile, the Gulf region continues to maintain its safe-haven appeal and is “going to continue to grow as far as the economy is concerned, on the backs of both India and China, because of the demand for energy … [it] should be very good for us”, the Emirati businessman said.
Mr Richter agreed that amid all the uncertainty, “one winner is the Gulf region”, which is attractive for India, China and Russia, among others. “It's like the modern trading place, where everybody is welcome to join hands and to work together,” he said.
Ads on social media can 'normalise' drugs
A UK report on youth social media habits commissioned by advocacy group Volteface found a quarter of young people were exposed to illegal drug dealers on social media.
The poll of 2,006 people aged 16-24 assessed their exposure to drug dealers online in a nationally representative survey.
Of those admitting to seeing drugs for sale online, 56 per cent saw them advertised on Snapchat, 55 per cent on Instagram and 47 per cent on Facebook.
Cannabis was the drug most pushed by online dealers, with 63 per cent of survey respondents claiming to have seen adverts on social media for the drug, followed by cocaine (26 per cent) and MDMA/ecstasy, with 24 per cent of people.
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Keita 5', Firmino 26'
Porto 0
The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
THE DRAFT
The final phase of player recruitment for the T10 League has taken place, with UAE and Indian players being drafted to each of the eight teams.
Bengal Tigers
UAE players: Chirag Suri, Mohammed Usman
Indian: Zaheer Khan
Karachians
UAE players: Ahmed Raza, Ghulam Shabber
Indian: Pravin Tambe
Kerala Kings
UAE players: Mohammed Naveed, Abdul Shakoor
Indian: RS Sodhi
Maratha Arabians
UAE players: Zahoor Khan, Amir Hayat
Indian: S Badrinath
Northern Warriors
UAE players: Imran Haider, Rahul Bhatia
Indian: Amitoze Singh
Pakhtoons
UAE players: Hafiz Kaleem, Sheer Walli
Indian: RP Singh
Punjabi Legends
UAE players: Shaiman Anwar, Sandy Singh
Indian: Praveen Kumar
Rajputs
UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed
Indian: Munaf Patel
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
%3Cp%3EMATA%0D%3Cbr%3EArtist%3A%20M.I.A%0D%3Cbr%3ELabel%3A%20Island%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Of Love & War'
Lynsey Addario, Penguin Press
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Silkhaus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aahan%20Bhojani%20and%20Ashmin%20Varma%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Property%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247.75%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nuwa%20Capital%2C%20VentureSouq%2C%20Nordstar%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20Yuj%20Ventures%20and%20Whiteboard%20Capital%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jewel of the Expo 2020
252 projectors installed on Al Wasl dome
13.6km of steel used in the structure that makes it equal in length to 16 Burj Khalifas
550 tonnes of moulded steel were raised last year to cap the dome
724,000 cubic metres is the space it encloses
Stands taller than the leaning tower of Pisa
Steel trellis dome is one of the largest single structures on site
The size of 16 tennis courts and weighs as much as 500 elephants
Al Wasl means connection in Arabic
World’s largest 360-degree projection surface
TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
When December 14-17
