The World Bank on Thursday lowered its 2025 growth forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa largely due to the extension of voluntary Opec+ production cuts.
Growth in the region is expected to increase from 1.8 per cent last year to 3.4 per cent this year, a downgrade of 0.8 per cent from the World Bank's June forecast. Growth is expected to rise to 4.1 per cent in 2026.
“The outlook for this year has deteriorated since June, primarily due to extended oil production cuts by major oil partners,” the World Bank said in its updated Global Economic Prospects report.
Eight oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, announced in December they had agreed to extend voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until March. The group said after that date, the supply curbs will be phased out each month through to the end of September 2026.
The World Bank had expected Opec+ to lift the production cuts by the end of last year.
Growth in countries belonging to the GCC grew by 1.6 per cent last year due to strong labour markets and a recovery of capital inflows supporting strong non-oil activity.
The World Bank also lowered its growth outlook for the GCC this year by 1.4 percentage points to 3.3 per cent because of the extension of the production cuts. Growth is forecast to increase to 4.6 per cent next year.
Among oil exporters, the UAE's economy also faces a slight downgrade. The World Bank projects the UAE's economy to increase by 4.0 per cent this year (0.1 per cent lower than its June projection) after growing 3.3 per cent last year. Growth in Saudi Arabia is estimated to be 3.4 per cent this year, 2.5 per cent below the World Bank's previous forecast.
Growth for oil importers is projected to reach 3.7 per cent this year before rising to 4 per cent next year due to stronger domestic demand amid easing inflation. Egypt's economy is projected to grow to 3.5 per cent in the 2024-25 fiscal year before expanding further to 4.2 per cent the following year due to stronger private consumption as inflation continues to ease.
The World Bank also anticipates financing from the UAE will help secure investment in Egypt.
Oman and Qatar's growth forecasts were also lowered by 0.4 and 0.5 per cent. The World Bank now expects Oman's economy to grow by 2.4 per cent this year, while activity in Qatar is set to increase by 2.7 per cent.
Projections for Iraq, Kuwait and Tunisia were lowered to 3.5, 1.7 and 2.2 per cent. Forecasts for Bahrain and Jordan were unchanged at 3.3 per cent and 2.6 per cent, while Morocco's growth forecasts were upgraded by two percentage points to 3.9 per cent.
The World Bank did not produce forecasts for Lebanon, Syria and Yemen due to a “high degree of uncertainty”.
The bank said risks for the region remain tilted to the downside due to regional conflicts and policy uncertainty, pointing to so-called unexpected global policy shifts. Further protectionist policies by trading partners could also reduce exports for oil importers.
Developing countries face 'tougher slog'
In its report, the World Bank anticipates global growth to increase by 2.7 per cent this year and in 2026, the same pace as last year, as inflation continues to moderate.
However, it warned that developing nations will have a more challenging time in reaching the income levels of advanced economies. Developing economies are expected to end the first quarter of this century with the weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000, the World Bank said.
“The next 25 years will be a tougher slog for developing economies than the last 25,” Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice president for development economics, said.
The World Bank said many factors that helped these economies grow at a faster rate decades ago – such as economic integration and foreign direct investment inflows – have faded.
“In their place have come daunting headwinds: high debt burdens, weak investment and productivity growth, and the rising costs of climate change,” Mr Gill said.
Global policy uncertainty and rising trade tension also pose serious challenges for developing economies, while inflation could prolong interest rate cuts, the World Bank said.
MATCH INFO
Bangla Tigers 108-5 (10 ovs)
Ingram 37, Rossouw 26, Pretorius 2-10
Deccan Gladiators 109-4 (9.5 ovs)
Watson 41, Devcich 27, Wiese 2-15
Gladiators win by six wickets
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
The six points:
1. Ministers should be in the field, instead of always at conferences
2. Foreign diplomacy must be left to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation
3. Emiratisation is a top priority that will have a renewed push behind it
4. The UAE's economy must continue to thrive and grow
5. Complaints from the public must be addressed, not avoided
6. Have hope for the future, what is yet to come is bigger and better than before
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
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Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
Simran
Director Hansal Mehta
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey
Three stars
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
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- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Du Football Champions
The fourth season of du Football Champions was launched at Gitex on Wednesday alongside the Middle East’s first sports-tech scouting platform.“du Talents”, which enables aspiring footballers to upload their profiles and highlights reels and communicate directly with coaches, is designed to extend the reach of the programme, which has already attracted more than 21,500 players in its first three years.
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Movie: Saheb, Biwi aur Gangster 3
Producer: JAR Films
Director: Tigmanshu Dhulia
Cast: Sanjay Dutt, Jimmy Sheirgill, Mahie Gill, Chitrangda Singh, Kabir Bedi
Rating: 3 star
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 1
Alonso (62')
Huddersfield Town 1
Depoitre (50')
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
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The Gentlemen
Director: Guy Ritchie
Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant
Three out of five stars
Mobile phone packages comparison
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
JAPANESE GRAND PRIX INFO
Schedule (All times UAE)
First practice: Friday, 5-6.30am
Second practice: Friday, 9-10.30am
Third practice: Saturday, 7-8am
Qualifying: Saturday, 10-11am
Race: Sunday, 9am-midday
Race venue: Suzuka International Racing Course
Circuit Length: 5.807km
Number of Laps: 53
Watch live: beIN Sports HD
