Jordan risks a sharper economic slowdown this year, as the kingdom is the most dependent on US exports among Middle East and North African countries, making it the region's most exposed nation to US tariffs.
The Washington ally is subject to a 20 per cent levy on its exports to the US, despite the free trade agreement between the two countries since 2010, which could hamper its economic growth and widen its current account deficit, according to a new report by BMI.
The Fitch company forecasts Jordan's economy will grow 2.1 per cent in 2025, down from 2.2 per cent last year, and a current account deficit at 7.4 per cent of its gross domestic product in 2025.
"Within the Mena region, Jordan is the economy most dependent on exports to the US, followed by Israel, Libya, Iraq, Bahrain and Tunisia," BMI said in an April report.
"The tariffs will lead to an even more pronounced slowdown in Jordan … and wider current account deficit."
Despite the 20 per cent tariff charged by the US on imports from Jordan, this rate is still lower than almost all countries that export similar products to the US, which could put the kingdom at an advantage, BMI added.
Jordan's exports to the US make up 6.6 per cent of the kingdom's GDP and comprise 28.4 per cent of the kingdom's total exports, according to BMI.
The US total goods trade with Jordan stood at an estimated $5.4 billion in 2024, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.
The US imports of goods from Jordan totalled $3.4 billion in 2024, up 15.4 per cent from 2023, according to the US government body's data. Meanwhile, US goods exports to Jordan in 2024 were $2 billion, up 30.9 per cent from last year.
This means the US goods trade deficit with Jordan was $1.3 billion in 2024, a 2.3 per cent decrease over 2023.
The US administration's tariffs on Jordan come despite the two countries signing a free-trade agreement (FTA), which entered into force on December 17, 2001, and eliminated duties on January 1, 2010.
Jordan’s main exports to the US include garments, jewellery, fertilisers, pharmaceuticals, IT services, food products, live animals, and engineering goods, according to Jordan's Petra news agency. On the other hand, imports from the US consist of mineral products, transportation equipment, machinery, electrical appliances, grains, chemicals, medical devices, processed foods, wood pulp, animal products, furniture, iron and steel products, vegetable oils, and wood items.
The economic shock to Jordan's economy from US tariffs comes after the aid-dependent Arab country was cut off from United States Agency for International Development (USAID) assistance. In February, US President Donald Trump ordered the shutdown of USAID, which sent “ripple effects” across Jordan's economy. The impact is “devastating” for the most vulnerable groups – from refugees to people with disabilities – in the agency's third-biggest aid recipient, the head of one of Jordan's larger non-government organisations told The National at the time.
In March, ratings agency S&P Global said that Jordan's economy has remained resilient amid regional security risks and being cut off from USAID assistance, resulting in a stable outlook for the aid-reliant economy. The kingdom's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit rating was maintained at BB.
'Significant' economic shocks across Mena
Gulf countries, Egypt, Morocco, Lebanon, Iran and Sudan will have a US tariff rate of 10 per cent. That is lower than levies on Israel of 17 per cent.
Tunisia has a tariff rate of 28 per cent, Algeria 30 per cent and Libya 31 per cent.
Syria and Iraq are now subject to tariffs of 41 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively, indicating that Middle East countries will have varying fortunes with how their economies are affected by the US tariffs announced on Wednesday.
"The US tariff announcement made on April 2 will create a significant negative economic shock to economies across Mena. The US will impose steep tariffs on imports from across the region, particularly from the Levant and North Africa," BMI said in its report.
For Tunisia, given the diversified exports to the US, Trump's tariffs will exacerbate the pressure on its already weak external position and lead to slower growth than the currently expected expansion of 1.2 per cent, BMI said.
In Israel, the government has removed all its tariffs on US products, and "we think the Israeli government and the US will reach an agreement to reduce the rate on Israeli exports to the US," BMI said.
The exemption of oil from the US tariffs means that nearly all of Libya, Iraq and Kuwait's exports to the US will not be affected, nor will about 80 per cent of Saudi Arabia and Algeria’s exports to the US, the report said.
The Atlantic Council in an April 3 report said the Mena region faces a "complex mix of risks" based on two categories: the Gulf oil exporters and the import-reliant economies of North Africa and the Levant.
One per cent contraction in global goods trade volumes
The World Trade Organisation's initial estimates show that the new US tariffs, coupled with those introduced since January, could lead to an overall contraction of around one per cent in global merchandise trade volumes in 2025, the body said in an April 3 statement. This represents a downwards revision of nearly four percentage points from previous projections.
"I'm deeply concerned about this decline and the potential for escalation into a tariff war with a cycle of retaliatory measures that lead to further declines in trade," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the WTO, said.
"Many members have reached out to us and we are actively engaging with them in response to their questions about the potential impact on their economies and the global trading system."
She warned that the tariffs have the potential to create "significant" trade diversion effects.
The Geneva-based WTO, which upholds a free-trade mandate, said that it currently administers 74 per cent of global trade, down from around 80 per cent at the beginning of the year.
Vulnerable economies most impacted
Economies with the least responsibility for global trade imbalances are facing severe penalties – despite being the least equipped to absorb new shocks, according to the United Nations Trade and Development (Unctad).
Just 10 of the nearly 200 US trade partners account for almost 90 per cent of its trade deficit, but the least developed countries and small island developing states – responsible for just 1.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent of the trade deficit, respectively – are being affected, the UN agency said.
They will neither help balance the trade deficit nor generate significant revenue, it added.
Many low-income economies now face a “perfect storm” of worsening external conditions, unsustainable debt levels, and slowing domestic growth.
The global trade system is entering a "critical phase" that is threatening growth, investment, and development progress, particularly for the most vulnerable economies, Unctad said.
“This hurts the vulnerable and the poor,” Rebeca Grynspan, Unctad's secretary-general, said. “Trade must not become another source of instability. It should serve development and global growth.”
Ms Grynspan said this is the time for "co-operation – not escalation" and urged trade reforms while protecting the most vulnerable.
Unctad called on decisions makers to "urgently reconsider" the tariffs imposed on the vulnerable countries, as these measures could "inflict great pain on millions of people."
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
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Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight, Wednesday, BeIN Sports
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
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%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
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Stree
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Profile of Foodics
Founders: Ahmad AlZaini and Mosab AlOthmani
Based: Riyadh
Sector: Software
Employees: 150
Amount raised: $8m through seed and Series A - Series B raise ongoing
Funders: Raed Advanced Investment Co, Al-Riyadh Al Walid Investment Co, 500 Falcons, SWM Investment, AlShoaibah SPV, Faith Capital, Technology Investments Co, Savour Holding, Future Resources, Derayah Custody Co.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
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Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
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Bournemouth 0
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
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Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
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