The US Federal Reserve kept a broadly united front in cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, despite a mounting pressure campaign from President Donald Trump.
Analysts had anticipated Wednesday's decision could lead to dissents within the Federal Open Market Committee, with one group arguing for a larger rate cut and a second favouring no cut at all.
In the end, Fed Chair Jerome Powell secured a near-unanimous decision.
“[Mr Powell] has done a good job of building consensus,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.
Only Stephen Miran, a top economic ally of Mr Trump who was sworn on to the Fed board on Tuesday, dissented against the result in favour of a 50-basis-point cut.
Mr Powell said there “wasn't widespread support at all” for a rate cut that large. “The only way a single voter can drive change is by making an incredibly persuasive argument,” he said.
The near-unanimous result showed some reprieve amid concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, which economists hold as sacrosanct in maintaining financial stability.
Mr Trump has repeatedly demanded aggressive interest rate cuts this year, with those demands largely being ignored by Mr Powell and his colleagues. On Monday, he said the Fed should deliver a much larger rate cut than the quarter-point reduction markets had priced in.
Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who dissented against holding rates steady in July, voted with Mr Powell on Wednesday. Both are under consideration to replace Mr Powell when his term as Fed chairman expires next year.
“The fact that there was only one dissenter means there's only one active member of the Federal Open Market Committee who is interviewing for the job of Fed chair next year,” Mr Hogan said.
“Having that one dissent is almost like having an asterisk.”
The fact that there was only one dissenter means there's only one active member of the Federal Open Market Committee who is interviewing for the job of Fed chair next year
Art Hogan,
chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth
But Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management, said Mr Powell is in a “no-win position to cut rates”.
“I think his credibility has been put at risk with this rate cut because he's trying to navigate what he should be doing, but there's this spectre of relentless pressure of trump to cut rates,” Mr Andersen said.
Divisions in the fine print
Mr Miran was also an outlier in the Fed's updated quarterly economic forecasts. According to the so-called dot plot, where every member on the 19-person committee predicts where interest rates will fall, economists believe the lone dot sitting between 2.5 and 3 per cent for 2025 to be his.
“The addition of his dot pushed down the median rate projection for this year to 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent,” Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote to clients.
“That median hides the deep split on the FOMC – nine of 19 members don't anticipate further cuts this year."
Those divisions underscore the predicament the Fed faces, which is that there are risks to both sides of its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
Wednesday's cut indicated Mr Powell was able to steer the committee towards buttressing the labour market, but he said the FOMC is not hurrying to return to the rate at which policy neither restricts nor loosens the economy.
Derek Tang, an economist at LHMeyer / Monetary Policy Analytics, said that even without Mr Miran, the Fed is “leaning a little more” towards two additional rate cuts this year as opposed to one.
“It’s not that heavy of a lean … but for us it’s enough to tip the balance when it comes to October,” he wrote.
The Fed is due to hold its next meeting on October 28 and 29, where futures markets anticipate a second consecutive 25-basis-point cut, according to CME Group data.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20front-axle%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E218hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E402km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh215%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Bloomberg Billionaire Index in full
1 Jeff Bezos $140 billion
2 Bill Gates $98.3 billion
3 Bernard Arnault $83.1 billion
4 Warren Buffett $83 billion
5 Amancio Ortega $67.9 billion
6 Mark Zuckerberg $67.3 billion
7 Larry Page $56.8 billion
8 Larry Ellison $56.1 billion
9 Sergey Brin $55.2 billion
10 Carlos Slim $55.2 billion
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Results:
5pm: Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Tahoonah, Richard Mullen (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,400m | Winner: Ajwad, Gerald Avranche, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: Duc De Faust, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 2,200m | Winner: Shareef KB, Fabrice Veron, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,500m | Winner: Bainoona, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel
Abu Dhabi GP starting grid
1 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2 Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
3 Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
4 Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
5 Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)
6 Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
7 Romain Grosjean (Haas)
8 Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
9 Esteban Ocon (Force India)
10 Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
11 Carlos Sainz (Renault)
12 Marcus Ericsson (Sauber)
13 Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
14 Sergio Perez (Force India)
15 Fernando Alonso (McLaren)
16 Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
17 Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
18 Stoffe Vandoorne (McLaren)
19 Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)
20 Lance Stroll (Williams)
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
DUBAI WORLD CUP RACE CARD
6.30pm Meydan Classic Trial US$100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
7.05pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Group Three $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
8.15pm Dubai Sprint Listed Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,200m
8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group Two $450,000 (D) 1,900m
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,800m
10pm Handicap $135,000 (T) 1,400m
The National selections
6.30pm Well Of Wisdom
7.05pm Summrghand
7.40pm Laser Show
8.15pm Angel Alexander
8.50pm Benbatl
9.25pm Art Du Val
10pm: Beyond Reason
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
hall of shame
SUNDERLAND 2002-03
No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.
SUNDERLAND 2005-06
Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.
HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19
Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.
ASTON VILLA 2015-16
Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.
FULHAM 2018-19
Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.
LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.
BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Specs
Engine: 3.0L twin-turbo V6
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 405hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 562Nm at 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.2L/100km
Price: From Dh292,845 (Reserve); from Dh320,145 (Presidential)
On sale: Now
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 2-litre 4-cylinder and 3.6-litre 6-cylinder
Power: 220 and 280 horsepower
Torque: 350 and 360Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh136,521 VAT and Dh166,464 VAT
On sale: now
