The global economy is on “firmer footing”, supported by $16 trillion in fiscal support and rapid Covid-19 vaccination campaigns, according to the International Monetary Fund.
As a result, the fund is set to upgrade its growth forecast for the world economy for this year and 2022.
The IMF, which in January forecast global growth of 5.5 per cent this year, said the pace of recovery was different for developed and emerging economies, fuelling uncertainty.
“We now expect a further acceleration, partly because of additional policy support – including the new fiscal package in the US – and partly because of the expected vaccine-powered recovery in many advanced economies later this year,” said the fund's managing director Kristalina Georgieva on Tuesday.
"This allows for an upward revision to our global forecast for this year and for 2022, as you will see in our World Economic Outlook next week."
Mass inoculation programmes have been introduced worldwide to limit the spread of the pandemic, which pushed the global economy into its deepest recession since the 1930s last year.
Global trade has since recovered, with faster-than-expected growth in China and other markets such as the US improving the outlook.
This recovery would not have been possible without “exceptional measures” from governments in the form of $16tn in fiscal support, including a $1.9tn pandemic relief package from the Biden administration this month, said Ms Georgieva.
Significant liquidity injections by central banks also helped to put a floor under the global economy, she said.
“Without these synchronised measures, the global contraction last year would have been at least three times worse. Just think about it – this could have been another Great Depression,” said Ms Georgieva.
While the overall outlook has brightened, recovery prospects are “diverging dangerously” – not only within nations but also between countries and regions.
“In fact, what we see is a multi-speed recovery, increasingly powered by two engines – the US and China,” she said.
"They are part of a small group of countries that will be well ahead of their pre-crisis gross domestic product levels by the end of 2021. But they are the exception, not the rule.”
The cumulative loss in per capita income, relative to pre-crisis projections, will be 11 per cent in advanced economies by next year. For emerging and developing countries excluding China, the loss will be 20 per cent.
“This loss of income means millions of people will face destitution, homelessness and hunger,” said Ms Georgieva.
“Indeed, one of the greatest dangers facing us is extremely high uncertainty.”
There could also be additional pressure on vulnerable emerging markets and poor and fragile states that have limited fiscal firepower to fight the crisis, she said.
Poor countries will have to use about $200 billion over five years to fight the pandemic and will require another $250bn to return them on the path of growth, said Ms Georgieva as she cited new IMF research.
However, these countries will be able to cover only a portion of that amount on their own. Nations in distress have received $107bn in assistance from the IMF under the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative.
The fund’s members are evaluating a plan to come up with as much as $650bn in additional reserve assets to help developing economies cope with the pandemic, said Ms Georgieva.
The fund expressed its strong support for a proposal to extend the G20 initiative, which has so far provided $5.7bn in relief to debt-laden countries, to the end of this year.
This is currently “under consideration by G20 members [and] I hope they will say yes to that”, she said.
Ms Georgieva also said countries need to continue adopting monetary accommodation and targeted fiscal measures to support vulnerable households and viable companies amid the pandemic.
There should also be additional support for small and medium enterprises through equity injections.
“SMEs are the world’s biggest employer. Yet, our research shows that the share of insolvent SMEs could rise sharply this year as support is scaled back – threatening one in 10 jobs in this vital sector,” she said.
Winners
Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)
Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)
Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)
Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)
Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)
Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)
Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)
VERSTAPPEN'S FIRSTS
Youngest F1 driver (17 years 3 days Japan 2014)
Youngest driver to start an F1 race (17 years 166 days – Australia 2015)
Youngest F1 driver to score points (17 years 180 days - Malaysia 2015)
Youngest driver to lead an F1 race (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest driver to set an F1 fastest lap (19 years 44 days – Brazil 2016)
Youngest on F1 podium finish (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest F1 winner (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest multiple F1 race winner (Mexico 2017/18)
Youngest F1 driver to win the same race (Mexico 2017/18)
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
BABYLON
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Damien%20Chazelle%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Jean%20Smart%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Two-step truce
The UN-brokered ceasefire deal for Hodeidah will be implemented in two stages, with the first to be completed before the New Year begins, according to the Arab Coalition supporting the Yemeni government.
By midnight on December 31, the Houthi rebels will have to withdraw from the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Al Saqef, coalition officials told The National.
The second stage will be the complete withdrawal of all pro-government forces and rebels from Hodeidah city, to be completed by midnight on January 7.
The process is to be overseen by a Redeployment Co-ordination Committee (RCC) comprising UN monitors and representatives of the government and the rebels.
The agreement also calls the deployment of UN-supervised neutral forces in the city and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to ensure distribution of aid across the country.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
Klopp at the Kop
Matches 68; Wins 35; Draws 19; Losses 14; Goals For 133; Goals Against 82
- Eighth place in Premier League in 2015/16
- Runners-up in Europa League in 2016
- Runners-up in League Cup in 2016
- Fourth place in Premier League in 2016/17
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
