A large outflow of migrants from the UK last year will help to keep unemployment in check in the short term, but could weaken the economy if sustained, ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service said.
The number of foreign-born workers in the UK fell by about 795,000 last year – a 13.7 per cent annual decline, the Office for National Statistics’ Labour Force Survey showed.
Although there is some uncertainty over the accuracy of data gathered in the midst of a pandemic, “it is clear that there has been a sizeable outflow of non-residents, likely driven by a combination of the coronavirus-induced shock and Brexit”, Moody’s said in a report.
The departure of large numbers of foreign workers, coupled with the government stimulus measures such as furlough schemes, is helping to keep unemployment in check, despite the significant hit to the economy as a result of Covid-19. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 per cent in March, from 4.9 per cent in February, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.
This is despite the UK economy shrinking by a further 1.5 per cent in the first quarter, on top of a 9.5 per cent contraction last year, official figures show.
However, if the outflow is sustained in the long term it could present challenges, with shortages of workers expected in industries such as construction, healthcare and hospitality.
Work-related immigration flows from the EU had already been declining since the 2016 Brexit referendum, which has only partially been offset by an inflow from workers outside the EU. The Bank of England is also forecasting a strong recovery this year, with annual gross domestic product growth of 7.25 per cent.
"If migration outflows are sustained, we expect to see labour shortages emerge across sectors such as transport and health and social care,” Evan Wohlmann, senior credit officer at Moody's Investors Service, said.
"Sustained net emigration would also weigh on UK growth potential by further slowing growth in the labour force and intensifying the impact of population ageing."
Foreign-born workers are more likely to be younger, with 80 per cent of them of working age, compared to 60 per cent of the overall population. They have supported economic growth, adding 0.4 percentage points on average to the UK's potential output growth between 2004 and 2018, Moody's said, citing figures from the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility.
The ratings agency estimates that if net migration flows from the EU remain at half of their recent historic levels between now and 2028, this could shave 0.1 per cent off the UK's potential growth rate.
Migration outflows are also likely to be detrimental to national and government finances.
"Net migration of working age individuals has tended to have an overall positive impact on the UK's public finances, raising revenue proportionately more than spending," the Moody's report said.
European Economic Area and Swiss nationals paid £20.7 billion ($29.36bn) more income tax and national insurance than they received in tax credits and child benefits in 2017 and 2018, figures from Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs showed. Non-EEA and Swiss nationals paid £17.8bn more than they received.
Outflows are therefore likely to reduce this taxable income and will mean local authorities witness a contraction in the council tax base, the ratings agency said.
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
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More on animal trafficking
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
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The years Ramadan fell in May
Opening Premier League fixtures, August 14
- Brentford v Arsenal
- Burnley v Brighton
- Chelsea v Crystal Palace
- Everton v Southampton
- Leicester City v Wolves
- Manchester United v Leeds United
- Newcastle United v West Ham United
- Norwich City v Liverpool
- Tottenham v Manchester City
- Watford v Aston Villa
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Manchester United v Liverpool
Premier League, kick off 7.30pm (UAE)
The specs: 2018 Mazda CX-5
Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 188hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 251Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.1L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Afghanistan fixtures
- v Australia, today
- v Sri Lanka, Tuesday
- v New Zealand, Saturday,
- v South Africa, June 15
- v England, June 18
- v India, June 22
- v Bangladesh, June 24
- v Pakistan, June 29
- v West Indies, July 4
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Previous men's records
- 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
- 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
- 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
- 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
- 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
- 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
- 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
- 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
- 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
- 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Paltan
Producer: JP Films, Zee Studios
Director: JP Dutta
Cast: Jackie Shroff, Sonu Sood, Arjun Rampal, Siddhanth Kapoor, Luv Sinha and Harshvardhan Rane
Rating: 2/5
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
