Central bank watchers will readily agree that the policy meeting this week marked the formal end of the first attempt by Chair Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve to lead markets rather than succumb to their will. What they are less likely to agree on are the major reasons for the shift, and it is the answer to this latter question that will determine whether the Fed is likely to make another effort toward greater separation and policy independence from markets.
Early in its tenure, the Powell-led Fed sought to convey to markets a heightened focus on the further normalisation of monetary policy, as it sought to build policy flexibility in the event of a future downturn and to lower the risk of future market instability. This approach was codified in three key ways: gradual and consistent hikes in interest rates, signaling of further meaningful increases, and a predictable and clearly telegraphed reduction in the balance sheet, which had grown to an unprecedented size due to the programme of large-scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing.
Markets started to become increasingly uncomfortable with this approach amid concerns about slower growth internationally, increasing US-China trade tensions, and stretched market valuations. Even though the economy’s performance remained solid, these worries resulted in a major market sell-off when, rather than show greater sensitivity to the more uncertain context, Fed officials raised their forecasts for rate hikes and reiterated that balance-sheet normalisation was on “autopilot.”
As the sell-off intensified, it also risked getting disorderly, forcing the Fed to begin changing its narrative. A series of central bank officials came out in favoor of a less aggressive pace of future rate hikes than was formally signaled by their blue dots. Officials also hinted at the possibility of a less rigid approach to the balance sheet. And all this happened even though US labor market indicators have continued to go from strength to strength.
The Fed’s statement on Wednesday contained the two things investors most wanted to hear: that the central bank would be “patient” on future rate hikes, and that it would be flexible when it came to its balance sheet. In the process, the Fed’s announcement ticked off every one of the issues I suggested in this article earlier this week. The markets had a textbook reaction to the Fed statement: stocks soared, the dollar weakened and interest rates moved down.
Analysts will offer many explanations for the striking 180-degree shift.
Some commentators will argue that the Powell-led Fed has now learned what its two predecessors did: that a highly levered economy means that, when push comes to shove, markets end up leading central banks rather than the other way around. Others will see the change of course as evidence of the Fed succumbing to political pressure. Some will see it as an acknowledgment of the sensitivity of the US economy to spillbacks from declining economic momentum in Europe and China. And yet others may even see it as a signal that the Fed feels that the weaker gross domestic product growth that is likely to materialise this quarter is due to more than the partial government shutdown.
The first two reasons suggest that central bankers will not be overly eager to try to break their dependency on markets, at least any time soon. In other words, the “Fed put” is back in the money, and will remain so. The other two reasons suggest a higher possibility of a Fed policy reversal down the road.
To me, the most salient takeaway is that the calibrated removal of unconventional measures is proving a lot trickier than many expected. There is no reason to think that this will change anytime soon absent a marked improvement in the global economy. With that, central banks will inadvertently continue to be occasional amplifiers of market volatility, up and down — a far cry from their previous role as effective volatility repressors.
Bloomberg
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2a)
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Racecard
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RESULT
Argentina 0 Croatia 3
Croatia: Rebic (53'), Modric (80'), Rakitic (90' 1)
Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Fanney Khan
Producer: T-Series, Anil Kapoor Productions, ROMP, Prerna Arora
Director: Atul Manjrekar
Cast: Anil Kapoor, Aishwarya Rai, Rajkummar Rao, Pihu Sand
Rating: 2/5
Race card
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m.
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m.
The National selections:
1.45pm: Galaxy Road – So Hi Speed
2.15pm: Majestic Thunder – Daltrey
2.45pm: Call To War – Taamol
3.15pm: Eqtiraan - Bochart
3.45pm: Kidd Malibu – Initial
4.15pm: Arroway – Arch Gold
4.35pm: Compliance - Muqaatil
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Jordan cabinet changes
In
- Raed Mozafar Abu Al Saoud, Minister of Water and Irrigation
- Dr Bassam Samir Al Talhouni, Minister of Justice
- Majd Mohamed Shoueikeh, State Minister of Development of Foundation Performance
- Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education and Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research
- Falah Abdalla Al Ammoush, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Basma Moussa Ishakat, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Ghazi Monawar Al Zein, Minister of Health
- Ibrahim Sobhi Alshahahede, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Environment
- Dr Mohamed Suleiman Aburamman, Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth
Out
- Dr Adel Issa Al Tawissi, Minister of High Education and Scientific Research
- Hala Noaman “Basiso Lattouf”, Minister of Social Development
- Dr Mahmud Yassin Al Sheyab, Minister of Health
- Yahya Moussa Kasbi, Minister of Public Works and Housing
- Nayef Hamidi Al Fayez, Minister of Environment
- Majd Mohamed Shoueika, Minister of Public Sector Development
- Khalid Moussa Al Huneifat, Minister of Agriculture
- Dr Awad Abu Jarad Al Mushakiba, Minister of Justice
- Mounir Moussa Ouwais, Minister of Water and Agriculture
- Dr Azmi Mahmud Mohafaza, Minister of Education
- Mokarram Mustafa Al Kaysi, Minister of Youth
- Basma Mohamed Al Nousour, Minister of Culture
The specs
Engine: 2x201bhp AC Permanent-magnetic electric
Transmission: n/a
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 659Nm
Price estimate: Dh200,000
On sale: Q3 2022
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEquestrian%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdullah%20Humaid%20Al%20Muhairi%2C%20Abdullah%20Al%20Marri%2C%20Omar%20Al%20Marzooqi%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Suwaidi%2C%20and%20Ali%20Al%20Karbi%20(four%20to%20be%20selected).%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EJudo%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMen%3A%20Narmandakh%20Bayanmunkh%20(66kg)%2C%20Nugzari%20Tatalashvili%20(81kg)%2C%20Aram%20Grigorian%20(90kg)%2C%20Dzhafar%20Kostoev%20(100kg)%2C%20Magomedomar%20Magomedomarov%20(%2B100kg)%3B%20women's%20Khorloodoi%20Bishrelt%20(52kg).%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECycling%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESafia%20Al%20Sayegh%20(women's%20road%20race).%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESwimming%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMen%3A%20Yousef%20Rashid%20Al%20Matroushi%20(100m%20freestyle)%3B%20women%3A%20Maha%20Abdullah%20Al%20Shehi%20(200m%20freestyle).%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAthletics%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMaryam%20Mohammed%20Al%20Farsi%20(women's%20100%20metres).%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The past Palme d'Or winners
2018 Shoplifters, Hirokazu Kore-eda
2017 The Square, Ruben Ostlund
2016 I, Daniel Blake, Ken Loach
2015 Dheepan, Jacques Audiard
2014 Winter Sleep (Kış Uykusu), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
2013 Blue is the Warmest Colour (La Vie d'Adèle: Chapitres 1 et 2), Abdellatif Kechiche, Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux
2012 Amour, Michael Haneke
2011 The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
2010 Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Lung Bunmi Raluek Chat), Apichatpong Weerasethakul
2009 The White Ribbon (Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte), Michael Haneke
2008 The Class (Entre les murs), Laurent Cantet
If you go
The flights
Etihad flies direct from Abu Dhabi to San Francisco from Dh5,760 return including taxes.
The car
Etihad Guest members get a 10 per cent worldwide discount when booking with Hertz, as well as earning miles on their rentals. A week's car hire costs from Dh1,500 including taxes.
The hotels
Along the route, Motel 6 (www.motel6.com) offers good value and comfort, with rooms from $55 (Dh202) per night including taxes. In Portland, the Jupiter Hotel (https://jupiterhotel.com/) has rooms from $165 (Dh606) per night including taxes. The Society Hotel https://thesocietyhotel.com/ has rooms from $130 (Dh478) per night including taxes.
More info
To keep up with constant developments in Portland, visit www.travelportland.com. Good guidebooks include the Lonely Planet guides to Northern California and Washington, Oregon & the Pacific Northwest.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
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Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding
Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.
Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.
Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.
For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae
More on Quran memorisation:
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.0-litre, twin-turbocharged W12
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 626bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh1,050,000
On sale: now
