Singapore's bad data comes ahead of China trade figures and quarterly GDP numbers that are likely to show a clear weakening in the economy. REUTERS
Singapore's bad data comes ahead of China trade figures and quarterly GDP numbers that are likely to show a clear weakening in the economy. REUTERS
Singapore's bad data comes ahead of China trade figures and quarterly GDP numbers that are likely to show a clear weakening in the economy. REUTERS
Singapore's bad data comes ahead of China trade figures and quarterly GDP numbers that are likely to show a clear weakening in the economy. REUTERS

Singapore's economy contracts as global trade hits new lows


  • English
  • Arabic

An unexpected contraction in Singapore’s economy in the second quarter sent a warning shot to the world economy as simmering trade tensions wilt business confidence and activity.

Gross domestic product in the export-reliant city-state shrank an annualised 3.4 per cent in the quarter from the first three months of the year, the biggest decline since 2012. That was worse than the 0.5 per cent expansion forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists and followed growth of 3.8 per cent in the first quarter.

Like South Korea’s economy -- which already contracted in the first quarter -- Singapore is often held up as a bellwether for global demand given its heavy reliance on foreign trade. The bad data comes ahead of China trade figures later Friday and quarterly GDP numbers on Monday, which will likely show a clear weakening in the economy.

“Singapore is the canary in the coal mine, being very open and sensitive to trade,” said Chua Hak Bin, an economist at Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte in Singapore. The data “points to the risk of a deepening slowdown for the rest of Asia.”

Across Asia and Europe, factory activity shrank in June while the US showed only a meager economic expansion. Asia is the world’s growth engine and contributes more than 60 per cent of global GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Rob Subbaraman, head of global macro research and co-head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc, concurred, saying the “large downside GDP miss does not bode well for the rest of Asia.”

Singapore’s complicated integration in regional and global supply chains makes it vulnerable to a slowdown in world growth and tariff wars. Exports have already taken a big hit over the past few months, with shipments plunging in May by the most since early 2013.

“I thought the numbers would be bad, but this is ugly,” Chua said. “The whiff of a technical recession is real. We thought it might be shallow, but the risk now is that it might be deeper.”

Compared with a year ago, Singapore's GDP growth slowed to 0.1 per cent in the second quarter, lower than the 1.1 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The Ministry of Trade's figures are advanced estimates based on the first two months' data, and will likely be revised when the final estimates are published next month.

The Singapore dollar fell as much as 0.1 per cent to 1.3588 against the US dollar after the data.

Aside from trade tensions, a cooling technology boom is weighing on the outlook. About 40 per cent of Singapore’s exports are integrated circuits alone, according to Tuuli McCully, head of Asia-Pacific economics at Scotiabank in Singapore.

“The downturn in the global semiconductor sector is reflected in Singapore more than in most countries in the region,” McCully said.

The slump wasn’t restricted to Singapore’s export sector only. While manufacturing contracted an annualized 6 per cent in the second quarter from the previous three months, construction plunged 7.6 per cent, reversing a 13.3 per cent expansion in the first quarter. The services industry shrank 1.5 per cent in the second quarter.

That weakness may prompt the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the nation’s central bank, to keep policy unchanged in October or possibly ease. The MAS uses the exchange rate as its main tool and left policy settings steady in April.

“If by October there is a recession and the U.S.-China trade war still fails to find a resolution, the MAS would probably have to ease policy,” Chua said.

The government sees the economy expanding 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent this year, compared with 3.1 per cent in 2018. Officials are set to revise that projection in August, trade and industry minister Chan Chun Sing told parliament this week, adding that Singapore was “well-placed to weather the storm” given its sound economic fundamentals, strong fiscal position, and progress in restructuring the economy.

A restart to US-China trade negotiations has done little to convince economists that the global economy can skirt a slowdown through the end of 2019 and perhaps beyond. Morgan Stanley analysts last month cut both their 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts by 20 basis points each, to 3 per cent and 3.2 per cent.

“With a resolution of the US-China trade conflict and a rebound in the global tech cycle both still elusive, the downside risks to growth in the region are mounting,” said Krystal Tan, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore.

Tips on buying property during a pandemic

Islay Robinson, group chief executive of mortgage broker Enness Global, offers his advice on buying property in today's market.

While many have been quick to call a market collapse, this simply isn’t what we’re seeing on the ground. Many pockets of the global property market, including London and the UAE, continue to be compelling locations to invest in real estate.

While an air of uncertainty remains, the outlook is far better than anyone could have predicted. However, it is still important to consider the wider threat posed by Covid-19 when buying bricks and mortar. 

Anything with outside space, gardens and private entrances is a must and these property features will see your investment keep its value should the pandemic drag on. In contrast, flats and particularly high-rise developments are falling in popularity and investors should avoid them at all costs.

Attractive investment property can be hard to find amid strong demand and heightened buyer activity. When you do find one, be prepared to move hard and fast to secure it. If you have your finances in order, this shouldn’t be an issue.

Lenders continue to lend and rates remain at an all-time low, so utilise this. There is no point in tying up cash when you can keep this liquidity to maximise other opportunities. 

Keep your head and, as always when investing, take the long-term view. External factors such as coronavirus or Brexit will present challenges in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains strong. 

Finally, keep an eye on your currency. Whenever currency fluctuations favour foreign buyers, you can bet that demand will increase, as they act to secure what is essentially a discounted property.

Racecard

5pm: Al Maha Stables – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m

5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m

6pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m

6.30pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m

7pm: The President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m

7.30pm: The President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m

FIXTURES

December 28
Stan Wawrinka v Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Milos Raonic v Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm

December 29 - semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Stan Wawrinka / Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic / Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm

December 30
3rd/4th place play-off, 5pm
Final, 7pm

Honeymoonish
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elie%20El%20Samaan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENour%20Al%20Ghandour%2C%20Mahmoud%20Boushahri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dunki
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rajkumar%20Hirani%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Taapsee%20Pannu%2C%20Vikram%20Kochhar%20and%20Anil%20Grover%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Tottenham's 10 biggest transfers (according to transfermarkt.com):

1). Moussa Sissokho - Newcastle United - £30 million (Dh143m): Flop

2). Roberto Soldado - Valencia -  £25m: Flop

3). Erik Lamela - Roma -  £25m: Jury still out

4). Son Heung-min - Bayer Leverkusen -  £25m: Success

5). Darren Bent - Charlton Athletic -  £21m: Flop

6). Vincent Janssen - AZ Alkmaar -  £18m: Flop

7). David Bentley - Blackburn Rovers -  £18m: Flop

8). Luka Modric - Dynamo Zagreb -  £17m: Success

9). Paulinho - Corinthians -  £16m: Flop

10). Mousa Dembele - Fulham -  £16m: Success

AUSTRALIA%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EPat%20Cummins%20(capt)%2C%20Scott%20Boland%2C%20Alex%20Carey%2C%20Cameron%20Green%2C%20Marcus%20Harris%2C%20Josh%20Hazlewood%2C%20Travis%20Head%2C%20Josh%20Inglis%2C%20Usman%20Khawaja%2C%20Marnus%20Labuschagne%2C%20Nathan%20Lyon%2C%20Mitchell%20Marsh%2C%20Todd%20Murphy%2C%20Matthew%20Renshaw%2C%20Steve%20Smith%2C%20Mitchell%20Starc%2C%20David%20Warner%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.4-litre%2C%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeight-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E617hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E750Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh630%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Meatless Days
Sara Suleri, with an introduction by Kamila Shamsie
​​​​​​​Penguin 

%3Cp%3EMATA%0D%3Cbr%3EArtist%3A%20M.I.A%0D%3Cbr%3ELabel%3A%20Island%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EXare%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJanuary%2018%2C%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPadmini%20Gupta%2C%20Milind%20Singh%2C%20Mandeep%20Singh%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20Raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2410%20million%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E28%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMS%26amp%3BAD%20Ventures%2C%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Astra%20Amco%2C%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%2C%20Fintech%20Fund%2C%20500%20Startups%2C%20Khwarizmi%20Ventures%2C%20and%20Phoenician%20Funds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

Dubai Women's Tour teams

Agolico BMC
Andy Schleck Cycles-Immo Losch
Aromitalia Basso Bikes Vaiano
Cogeas Mettler Look
Doltcini-Van Eyck Sport
Hitec Products – Birk Sport 
Kazakhstan National Team
Kuwait Cycling Team
Macogep Tornatech Girondins de Bordeaux
Minsk Cycling Club 
Pannonia Regional Team (Fehérvár)
Team Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Team Ciclotel
UAE Women’s Team
Under 23 Kazakhstan Team
Wheel Divas Cycling Team

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A