Oil prices posted their first quarterly loss in two years at the end of a volatile trading week on Friday, as investors weighed up possible output cuts by the Opec+ super group of crude producers against the weakening global economic outlook and increasing inflation.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, settled 2.34 per cent lower at $85.14. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, fell more than 2.14 per cent to $79.49 a barrel.
Both benchmarks made slight gains for the week, their first in five weeks.
However, their quarterly losses were more pronounced, with Brent falling about 22 per cent in the three months to the end of September, and WTI shedding nearly 25 per cent.
“It has been over two years since oil posted a quarterly loss, but a miserable quarter filled with a doom and gloom global economic outlook meant crude’s losses were going to be severe,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
“The crude demand outlook is not getting any favours from economic data or corporate reports.”
Oil prices have taken a battering in recent weeks, pulled down by a strong US dollar and a worsening global economic outlook.
Falling prices are a concern for Opec+ producers, who are meeting in Vienna on Wednesday to discuss market dynamics and are likely to agree on further output cuts to support prices.
“Opec+ will have an easy job … but oil prices won’t catch a bid until energy traders are confident an aggressive reduction of output at around 1 million bpd [barrels per day] will be delivered,” Mr Moya said.
“Oil will get tighter in the winter and now that most of the crude demand destruction has been priced in, prices should stabilise going into the year-end.”
The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the greenback against a weighted basket of major currencies, dropped last week, supporting oil prices.
However, with a market lacking catalysts to rally higher, a potential cut needs to be substantial to change sentiment, according to Edward Bell, senior director of market economics at Emirates NBD.
“Any cut would need to be meaningfully larger than the 100,000 bpd agreed for October if it is to shift sentiment in the market,” Mr Bell said.
Most brokerages have said that Opec+ has to make oil cuts between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd to keep Brent above $90 a barrel.
“To address prevailing oil demand concerns, stop the negative price momentum and set a floor to prices, we think the group has to announce a production cut of at least 0.5 million bpd over the coming days,” UBS analysts Giovanni Staunovo and Wayne Gordon said in a research note earlier in the week.
Global recession fears have continued to weigh on the market as the world's central banks tighten monetary policy to curb soaring inflation.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects global growth to fall to 2.2 per cent in 2023, compared with its 2022 estimate of 3 per cent.
“GDP growth has stalled in many economies and economic indicators point to an extended slowdown,” OECD secretary general Mathias Cormann said in a report.
Monday's results
- UAE beat Bahrain by 51 runs
- Qatar beat Maldives by 44 runs
- Saudi Arabia beat Kuwait by seven wickets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The biog
Family: Parents and four sisters
Education: Bachelor’s degree in business management and marketing at American University of Sharjah
A self-confessed foodie, she enjoys trying out new cuisines, her current favourite is the poke superfood bowls
Likes reading: autobiographies and fiction
Favourite holiday destination: Italy
Posts information about challenges, events, runs in other emirates on the group's Instagram account @Anagowrunning
Has created a database of Emirati and GCC sportspeople on Instagram @abeermk, highlight: Athletes
Apart from training, also talks to women about nutrition, healthy lifestyle, diabetes, cholesterol, blood pressure
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