Opec has raised its 2023 oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day amid expectations of an economic rebound in China, the world's largest crude importer.
The group expects global oil demand to grow by 2.3 million bpd this year, which is higher than its previous estimate of 2.2 million bpd growth for 2023.
“Key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be the return of China from its mandated mobility restrictions and the effect this will have on the country,” the group of oil-producing countries said in its monthly oil market report on Tuesday.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, reopened its borders last month after adhering to a strict zero-Covid policy for about three years.
“Much will depend on how the government plans to manoeuvre the delicate balance of curbing Covid-19 infections versus opening up for business,” Opec said.
“Moreover, a number of global economic concerns — including the inflation levels, monetary tightening measures, sovereign debt levels, as well as geopolitical tensions — will weigh on global oil demand prospects.”
Opec also revised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.6 per cent on “better-than-anticipated” economic performance in key countries in the second half of 2022.
It previously estimated growth of 2.5 per cent.
The group lowered its 2023 output estimate for non-Opec production by 100,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd on expectations of a drop in output in Russia and Mexico.
Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, said it would cut oil production by 500,000 bpd, or about 5 per cent of its crude output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian crude and oil products.
On February 5, the G7 and the EU agreed to set the price cap at $100 a barrel for products that trade at a premium to crude, such as diesel, and $45 a barrel for products that trade at a discount, such as naphtha and fuel oil.
The price cap was introduced along with an EU ban on Russian diesel and other refined products.
“Large uncertainties remain over the impact of ongoing geopolitical developments, as well as US shale output in 2023,” Opec said.
At its last meeting, the Opec+ alliance of 23 oil-producing countries agreed to roll over its existing oil output cuts of two million bpd.
“It is important for the countries of the Declaration of Co-operation to continue co-ordinating efforts to support a balanced and stable oil market to help navigate these uncertainties,” the group said on Tuesday.
The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to surge to record levels this year on China’s recovery.
Oil demand will rise by 1.9 million bpd to 101.7 million bpd in 2023, said the IEA, which previously estimated a growth of 1.7 million bpd.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund recently raised its global economic growth estimate for this year to 2.9 per cent from a previous forecast of 2.7 per cent.
Global economic growth may be reaching a “turning point”, supported by falling inflation and China’s reopening, IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday.
“While this is encouraging, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside. China’s recovery could stall [and] inflation could remain higher than expected,” she said.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 1.28 per cent lower at $85.50 a barrel at 10.09pm UAE time.
West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 1.31 per cent at $79.09 a barrel.
RESULTS
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Brraq, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Jean-Claude Pecout (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Taamol, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Eqtiraan, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Soft Whisper, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Hypothetical, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner: Etisalat, Sando Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
8 traditional Jamaican dishes to try at Kingston 21
- Trench Town Rock: Jamaican-style curry goat served in a pastry basket with a carrot and potato garnish
- Rock Steady Jerk Chicken: chicken marinated for 24 hours and slow-cooked on the grill
- Mento Oxtail: flavoured oxtail stewed for five hours with herbs
- Ackee and salt fish: the national dish of Jamaica makes for a hearty breakfast
- Jamaican porridge: another breakfast favourite, can be made with peanut, cornmeal, banana and plantain
- Jamaican beef patty: a pastry with ground beef filling
- Hellshire Pon di Beach: Fresh fish with pickles
- Out of Many: traditional sweet potato pudding
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
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Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
