Our energy future is a summation of cycles, secular trends and shocks. Though next year will be no exception, the rhythm of cycles increasingly struggles to be heard above the roar of long-term shifts and the shrieks of surprises.
Cyclicity in energy is created by the intersection of the business cycle and the investment cycle. Energy and mineral projects are typically expensive, long-term, capital-intensive ventures. Deepwater oilfields, liquefied natural gas plants, nuclear power plants or mines for uranium or copper take a decade or more to conceive and construct.
They are typically approved at times of high energy prices, which bring plentiful cash flow to their proponents and urgency to governments. By the time they begin operations, the economic environment may be completely different.
The global economy, meanwhile, runs on its own pulse. Sometimes this runs alongside the energy cycle, as when Chinese growth in the early 2000s met a long period of underinvestment, to drive soaring oil and gas prices. At other times, it collides, as in the 1970s stagflation of high energy bills, inflation and unemployment, or the booming 1990s economy with low energy costs.
Recently, cyclicity has been less pronounced. Since the recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis, global economic growth has been mediocre but fairly stable, leaving aside the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic and the 2021 rebound.
In the oil and gas business, there has been no fundamental resurgence from the 2016 price crash, again leaving aside the Covid years, then the further shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Oil prices have been unusually stable since late 2022, helped by Opec policy.
The accumulation of Opec spare capacity, and the expected continuing growth in non-Opec production next year, suggests that the Vienna-based organisation has underwritten excessive investment in upstream oil, as it did in the early 1980s and the mid-2000s. The leading lights of Opec may tire of this strategy in 2025, or co-operation may simply break down.
The strong wave of LNG expansion, by contrast, mostly in Qatar and the US, will not arrive in earnest until 2027 or even later. The critical European gas market remains finely balanced, at risk from a cold winter, from windless weather, from further measures against Russian gas, and from climate and human rights policies that turn away suppliers such as Qatar.
So trends will swamp cycles. The key intersecting trends include climate change, the rapid progress of new energy technologies, the rise of electricity-hungry uses such as artificial intelligence, lower international co-operation and trade growth, and spreading economic and demographic maturity.
On the whole, these tend to lower economic growth and energy demand, particularly for oil. With electric vehicles now making up more than half of car sales in China, leading refiner Sinopec predicts a peak for Chinese oil demand in 2027. Though India will pick up some of the slack, that probably means a global plateau is not far behind. US tariffs on Chinese EVs will just push these increasingly cheap and sophisticated machines into other global markets.
Coal use, too, should be declining, but its role as a secure domestic source of energy for China, India and other Asian nations has made it remarkably persistent.
Electricity, though, is the bright spark. Not just AI, but heat pumps, air-conditioning, electric transport and electrified industry will push its use. That is good for renewables, nuclear power and gas.
For all the talk that the energy transition has “failed” or is slowing down, it is actually accelerating in key ways – but this is driven by better economics and technical performance, not by Western government or corporate policies. The GCC in particular is benefiting both at home and abroad from its rapidly-rising renewable capacity.
Though they will not have an impact in 2025, there is also the prospect of breakthroughs in areas such as small nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion, advanced geothermal energy, hydrogen and new battery systems.
Finally, we come to surprises.
Some of the shocks are more predicable than usual, at least in general terms. Most notably, the incoming administration of Donald Trump in the US promises instability. In foreign policy, it looks hawkish on China and Iran, perhaps appeasing Russia.
Mr Trump has already threatened four important global energy players who are traditional US allies: Mexico and Canada, important oil suppliers, with tariffs; Panama, holder of the critical canal waterway; and Greenland, a host of potentially important rare earths and other minerals. He has demanded Europe buy more American oil and gas, which it neither wants to nor can co-ordinate, or face tariffs.
Even if most of these are bluster or negotiating tactics, they raise uncertainty for trade and business. They cut in favour of self-sufficiency, or of regional blocs that can stand against the US, China, Russia or other bullies.
Economically, the combination of tax cuts, tariffs, expulsion of migrants from the US, a curbing of Federal Reserve independence, and grandstanding on Congressional budget talks, promises inflation, economic instability, and a slowdown in growth, or a boom-bust syndrome.
Tighter sanctions on Iran, an effort to capitalise on Tehran’s recent setbacks, and to diminish its influence in Iraq, looks likely. But more of the same will not diminish Iran’s oil exports much: it will take more aggressive action, such as targeting the “shadow fleet” that also carries Russian oil, or going after Chinese buyers. That in turn will heighten tensions with Beijing, at a time that China looks the most predictable and stable of the main international players.
Direct military confrontation between Washington and Iran is the most obvious risk to energy supplies. The latest damage to a subsea Baltic electric cable, likely by a suspect Russian tanker, is a reminder of the continuing energy risks in Europe. These may escalate if Moscow continues to stall on the battlefield and its war economy runs out of steam.
Even these “predictable surprises” can trip us up. Ahead of Covid, the US was ranked as the nation best-prepared to tackle a pandemic. Eight days before Hamas’s attack on Israel, which caused a multi-front war, terrible human suffering, the near-closure of the Red Sea, and arguably the fall of the Assad regime, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan opined that, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”
In 2025, the big energy surprise might be turmoil in an overlooked geopolitical hotspot such as the Arctic, Central Asia or outer space. It might be a huge natural disaster such as a volcano, earthquake or tsunami, a major climatic deterioration, or an economic crisis emanating from Congress, China or cryptocurrency. Shocks are inevitable. The problem for 2025 is that a conspiracy-minded and uncooperative world order will not handle them well.
Favourite things
Luxury: Enjoys window shopping for high-end bags and jewellery
Discount: She works in luxury retail, but is careful about spending, waits for sales, festivals and only buys on discount
University: The only person in her family to go to college, Jiang secured a bachelor’s degree in business management in China
Masters: Studying part-time for a master’s degree in international business marketing in Dubai
Vacation: Heads back home to see family in China
Community work: Member of the Chinese Business Women’s Association of the UAE to encourage other women entrepreneurs
MATCH INFO
Liverpool 4 (Salah (pen 4, 33', & pen 88', Van Dijk (20')
Leeds United 3 (Harrison 12', Bamford 30', Klich 66')
Man of the match Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
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SPECS
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The biog
Name: Capt Shadia Khasif
Position: Head of the Criminal Registration Department at Hatta police
Family: Five sons and three daughters
The first female investigator in Hatta.
Role Model: Father
She believes that there is a solution to every problem
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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Scoreline
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 17
Jebel Ali Dragons 20
Harlequins Tries: Kinivilliame, Stevenson; Cons: Stevenson 2; Pen: Stevenson
Dragons Tries: Naisau, Fourie; Cons: Love 2; Pens: Love 2
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
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How it works
1) The liquid nanoclay is a mixture of water and clay that aims to convert desert land to fertile ground
2) Instead of water draining straight through the sand, it apparently helps the soil retain water
3) One application is said to last five years
4) The cost of treatment per hectare (2.4 acres) of desert varies from $7,000 to $10,000 per hectare
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
How to turn your property into a holiday home
- Ensure decoration and styling – and portal photography – quality is high to achieve maximum rates.
- Research equivalent Airbnb homes in your location to ensure competitiveness.
- Post on all relevant platforms to reach the widest audience; whether you let personally or via an agency know your potential guest profile – aiming for the wrong demographic may leave your property empty.
- Factor in costs when working out if holiday letting is beneficial. The annual DCTM fee runs from Dh370 for a one-bedroom flat to Dh1,200. Tourism tax is Dh10-15 per bedroom, per night.
- Check your management company has a physical office, a valid DTCM licence and is licencing your property and paying tourism taxes. For transparency, regularly view your booking calendar.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Team: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Ben Te'o, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Dylan Hartley, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Joe Launchbury, 5 Maro Itoje, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Chris Robshaw, 8 Sam Simmonds
Replacements 16 Jamie George, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Harry Williams, 19 George Kruis, 20 Sam Underhill, 21 Danny Care, 22 Jonathan Joseph, 23 Jack Nowell
MATCH INFO
Scotland 59 (Tries: Hastings (2), G Horne (3), Turner, Seymour, Barclay, Kinghorn, McInally; Cons: Hastings 8)
Russia 0
MATCH INFO
Argentina 47 (Tries: Sanchez, Tuculet (2), Mallia (2), De La Fuente, Bertranou; Cons: Sanchez 5, Urdapilleta)
United States 17 (Tries: Scully (2), Lasike; Cons: MacGinty)
The specs
BMW M8 Competition Coupe
Engine 4.4-litre twin-turbo V8
Power 625hp at 6,000rpm
Torque 750Nm from 1,800-5,800rpm
Gearbox Eight-speed paddleshift auto
Acceleration 0-100kph in 3.2 sec
Top speed 305kph
Fuel economy, combined 10.6L / 100km
Price from Dh700,000 (estimate)
On sale Jan/Feb 2020
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
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MATCH INFO
Liverpool v Manchester City, Sunday, 8.30pm UAE
Virtuzone GCC Sixes
Date and venue Friday and Saturday, ICC Academy, Dubai Sports City
Time Matches start at 9am
Groups
A Blighty Ducks, Darjeeling Colts, Darjeeling Social, Dubai Wombats; B Darjeeling Veterans, Kuwait Casuals, Loose Cannons, Savannah Lions; C Awali Taverners, Darjeeling, Dromedary, Darjeeling Good Eggs
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Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
Race card
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m.
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m.
The National selections:
1.45pm: Galaxy Road – So Hi Speed
2.15pm: Majestic Thunder – Daltrey
2.45pm: Call To War – Taamol
3.15pm: Eqtiraan - Bochart
3.45pm: Kidd Malibu – Initial
4.15pm: Arroway – Arch Gold
4.35pm: Compliance - Muqaatil
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
MATCH INFO
Group B
Bayern Munich v Tottenham, midnight (Thursday)
If you go
The flights
The closest international airport for those travelling from the UAE is Denver, Colorado. British Airways (www.ba.com) flies from the UAE via London from Dh3,700 return, including taxes. From there, transfers can be arranged to the ranch or it’s a seven-hour drive. Alternatively, take an internal flight to the counties of Cody, Casper, or Billings
The stay
Red Reflet offers a series of packages, with prices varying depending on season. All meals and activities are included, with prices starting from US$2,218 (Dh7,150) per person for a minimum stay of three nights, including taxes. For more information, visit red-reflet-ranch.net.
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
Dubai World Cup Carnival card
6.30pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
8.15pm: Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
8.50pm: Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
9.25pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
The National selections
6.30pm: Final Song
7.05pm: Pocket Dynamo
7.40pm: Dubai Icon
8.15pm: Dubai Legacy
8.50pm: Drafted
9.25pm: Lucius Tiberius
FIXTURES (all times UAE)
Sunday
Brescia v Lazio (3.30pm)
SPAL v Verona (6pm)
Genoa v Sassuolo (9pm)
AS Roma v Torino (11.45pm)
Monday
Bologna v Fiorentina (3.30pm)
AC Milan v Sampdoria (6pm)
Juventus v Cagliari (6pm)
Atalanta v Parma (6pm)
Lecce v Udinese (9pm)
Napoli v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
