The North Sea is a stormy place. The relatively shallow body of water that lies between the eastern part of the UK, Norway, Denmark, Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium is one of the most dangerous maritime areas in the world.
Oil and gas will stop being produced simply because people won’t want them
Paul Ekins
The shallowness of the North Sea – sometimes just 30 metres deep in its southern parts – means large waves can whipped up during storms, and currents move much faster than in other seas. The conditions can become so choppy that the white tops of the waves can be seen from space.
But the North Sea has also given rise to other storms, both political and economic in nature, and the latest involves the future of its dwindling oil and gas reserves.
Donald Trump revived the debate over the sources of energy above and below the waves in the North Sea on his Truth Social platform. Commenting that Britain is “making a very big mistake” on its energy policy, as it moves away from oil and gas production, the US president-elect urged the UK government to “open up” the North Sea and get rid of “windmills”.
The North Sea Transition Authority, which licenses and regulates activity in relation to Britain's oil and gas, estimates the UK has between 10 and 15 billion barrels of oil left in the North Sea. Only about two billion barrels are in areas not currently covered by exploration and drilling licences. The authority projects UK gas production to fall by 55 per cent by 2030, and oil production by 40 per cent.
Mr Trump made the comments following the announced withdrawal of the US oil and gas company Apache from the North Sea. Apache said the UK's windfall tax on profits – the Energy Profits Levy – had made its British operations “uneconomic”.
The UK's previous Conservative government introduced a 25 per cent windfall tax, the Energy Profits Levy, on oil and gas company profits in May 2022, following the spike in energy prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That was increased to 35 per cent in November of that year.
In her budget at the end of October 2024, Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves increased the EPL from 35 per cent to 38 per cent, which took the headline rate of tax for the oil and gas companies in the sector to 78 per cent – among the highest in the world. In addition, Ms Reeves cancelled the 29 per cent investment allowance under which producers could offset tax from reinvested capital.
But even stripping out the effect of the windfall taxes on the sector, the figures point to an industry in decline. Numbers from the North Sea Transition Authority show production falling from about 600,000 barrels per day in 2024 to around 200,000 barrels per day in 2050.
Most experts contend that after nearly 50 years, the days of the UK's oil and gas industry are numbered and what is now at issue is simply the speed and nature of the transition. So, the question arises: does the UK need oil and gas from the North Sea?
Contrasting experiences
Since the first oil and gas came ashore to the UK in the mid-1970s, successive governments have debated its future direction. Historians and others often point to the contrasting experiences of Norway and the UK in dealing with what was once the bonanza of North Sea oil and gas.
Essentially, Norway squirrelled the revenue from its North Sea operations into a sovereign wealth fund, which today is one of the largest in the world, worth in the order of $1.4 trillion. Since the 1970s, Norway has made sure 70 per cent of the country's North Sea oil and gas assets remain in government hands.
The British National Oil Corporation was set up in the mid-1970s to exploit the country's North Sea oil and gas reserves. Under the Oil and Gas (Enterprise) Act of 1982, BNOC was split up and the upstream assets came under a new company called Britoil. The government subsequently sold off shares in Britoil and the privatisation of the UK's oil and gas industry took shape.
There are differing estimates of just how much the UK would have now, were it to have gone down a similar route to Norway, kept ownership of its national oil and gas assets and placed the revenue they generated into a sovereign wealth fund.
Sukhdev Johal, professor of accounting at Queen Mary University of London, puts the figure at £850 billion. That would equate to £13,000 per person – or 33 per cent of the UK’s national debt. When he was chief economist at PwC in 2008, John Hawksworth wrote a paper entitled Dude, Where's My Oil Money? which put the figure at £400 billion.
The argument some analysts make is that while Norway was putting most of its oil money away for future investment, successive British governments used its North Sea revenue as way to cut taxes, which came down dramatically during the 1980s.
“There is no doubt when you have a natural capital asset such as fossil fuels, the way that you ought to conduct your revenue raising from that is to ensure you use the proceeds to generate another capital asset which can generate a return in the future,” Paul Ekins, professor at the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and author of Stopping Climate Change: Policies for Real Zero, told The National. “It’s quite clear that the UK government did not do that in a systematic way.”
Licence to drill
Meanwhile, Norway is still exploiting its reserves. Indeed, Norwegian oil and gas companies delivered record levels of natural gas last year and will drill around 40 new wells in 2025, half of which will be in its share of the North Sea. Norway became Europe’s top supplier of natural gas in 2022 – replacing the Russian supplies that were slashed following the invasion of Ukraine – and now provides 30 per cent of the continent's needs.
The UK government's decision to end oil and gas licensing in the North Sea does tally with comments the International Energy Agency made in 2021. The intergovernmental organisation said there was no room for oil and gas expansion if the world was to have a chance of reaching net zero by 2050. Britain is not alone in this, several other countries – including France, Ireland, Portugal and Denmark – have said they will not grant new oil and gas licences.
“Developing new North Sea oil and gas projects is not in the UK public interest,” Daniel Jones, head of research and policy at Uplift, which supports efforts in the UK to transition away from oil and gas, told The National.
Mr Jones pointed to the example of the huge Rosebank oilfield, where oil and gas companies were granted drilling rights in 2023 but are still the subject of legal battles with environmental campaigners.
“It is mostly oil for export, which would do nothing to lower fuel costs or boost our energy security yet, because of huge tax breaks for new drilling, the UK public would effectively cover almost all of the costs of developing it while the oil companies walk off with the profits,” he said.
The owners of Rosebank, Norwegian energy giant Equinor and British firm Ithaca Energy, claim about 1,600 jobs will be created during its construction and the oilfield will support about 450 UK-based jobs during its lifetime.
Even with a ban on new licences, the oil and gas does not stop flowing overnight. On average it takes 28 years from the time a licence is granted to the point where it is producing oil. However, what that ignores is the demand for North Sea oil and gas, which as renewables become increasingly the norm in global energy markets, should drop off dramatically, according to Prof Ekins.
“They stop being produced, not because governments say they can’t be produced, but people simply won’t want them, because there are other zero-carbon forms of energy which they can use instead, and oil and gas prices will fall,” he said.
For Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite union, that fall-off due to government policy means oil and gas workers risk becoming the “coal workers of our generation”, a reference to the plight of Britain's coal miners during the 1980s, when pits closed. Whole communities still bear the scars of this collapse in fortunes.
For others, it is sensible that the energy transition is guided by government policies, although that comes with casualties. “If it was being driven purely by markets – if renewables were so much cheaper that effectively no one wanted oil and gas – no one would give tuppence about these oil and gas workers,” Prof Ekins said.
“They’d simply be made unemployed and they’d have to fend for themselves, as has happened in many other market transitions in the past. But this one has had to be driven by governments, because climate change is a kind of non-market process. Obviously, everybody gets terribly concerned, and it’s right that they should be.”
It is vital to ensure that workers in the oil and gas sector are not forgotten, Sam Kimmins, director of energy at international non-profit organisation Climate Group, told The National.
“What must be considered is how this [energy transition] affects workers, and we need to ensure that there is an appropriate transition to ensure no one is left behind,” said Mr Kimmins. “To do this, we must ensure there is clarity about the way forward.”
Market forces
North Sea oil and gas is exported and the gas that comes ashore in the UK does so at global wholesale gas prices. There is no discount for UK consumers who might end up using North Sea gas. For some analysts, it is an issue of control in a volatile world.
“Around 80 per cent of all the oil extracted in the North Sea is exported, and in 2023 more of the UK’s gas came from Norway than from domestic sources,” Mr Kimmins said. “It's only by creating our own renewable energy, where we have control over pricing, that the UK will achieve energy security and household bills will not be subject to the fluctuations of international markets.”
As such, many myths about the value of North Sea oil and gas to the UK economy are being dispelled as the energy transition advances. The NTSA expects spending on oil and gas production in the North Sea to drop from £11.7 billion ($14.5 billion) in 2020 to £8.5 billion by 2029.
So, while the taps will not be turned off overnight – and the windfall taxes will continue to be collected – experts say the tides are most certainly changing in the North Sea.
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
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How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Angela Bassett, Tina Fey
Directed by: Pete Doctor
Rating: 4 stars
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
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Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
T10 Cricket League
Sharjah Cricket Stadium
December 14- 17
6pm, Opening ceremony, followed by:
Bengal Tigers v Kerala Kings
Maratha Arabians v Pakhtoons
Tickets available online at q-tickets.com/t10
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes 58-10 Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers 5-39 Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons 16-56 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Results:
Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.
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Squads
India: Kohli (c), Rahul, Shaw, Agarwal, Pujara, Rahane, Vihari, Pant (wk), Ashwin, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Shami, Umesh, Siraj, Thakur
West Indies: Holder (c), Ambris, Bishoo, Brathwaite, Chase, Dowrich (wk), Gabriel, Hamilton, Hetmyer, Hope, Lewis, Paul, Powell, Roach, Warrican, Joseph
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
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What is a black hole?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
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The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
Tickets
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
Match info
Premier League
Manchester United 2 (Martial 30', Lingard 69')
Arsenal 2 (Mustafi 26', Rojo 68' OG)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
