An oil barrel with the Opec logo at the Cop29 UN climate change conference in Azerbaijan's capital Baku. Reuters
An oil barrel with the Opec logo at the Cop29 UN climate change conference in Azerbaijan's capital Baku. Reuters
An oil barrel with the Opec logo at the Cop29 UN climate change conference in Azerbaijan's capital Baku. Reuters
An oil barrel with the Opec logo at the Cop29 UN climate change conference in Azerbaijan's capital Baku. Reuters

How could Trump's maximum pressure campaign against Iran affect Opec cuts?


Kyle Fitzgerald
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US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he would reinstitute a maximum pressure campaign on Iran and force its oil exports to zero.

This comes as countries in the Opec alliance continue cuts in production.

Among the orders outlined in the memo on Iran issued by Mr Trump, the Treasury and State departments were directed to start a campaign “driving Iran's oil exports to zero”, Reuters reported. The memo did not describe how the US would do this.

US oil prices pared losses on Tuesday, recouping some due to the tariff friction between Washington and China earlier in the day. US West Texas Intermediate closed 0.63 per cent – or 46 cents – lower at $72.70 per barrel on Tuesday, while Brent crude futures rose 0.32 per cent – or 24 cents – to close the day at $76.20.

“The oil market has not moved substantially since this was announced, which indicates that it was already expected and priced in,” said Justin Alexander of Khalij Economics.

The announcement comes after Opec rebuffed Mr Trump's demands to lower oil prices by increasing output. The alliance announced late last year that its voluntary oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day would continue until March this year.

Once that passes, the supply curbs will be phased out each month until the end of September 2026.

“So, it's a very slow, gradual process still leaves production significantly constrained, particularly for the Gulf states that are participating in the voluntary cuts,” Mr Alexander said.

While Iran is still a long way from near-zero oil exports, experts say that Opec has enough space to absorb the about 500,000 barrels per day that would be taken off the market because of sanctions enforcement.

Rachel Ziemba, a geoeconomic and country risk expert, said real losses could allow Opec to do the easing or speed up the unwinding of the cuts. With the Trump administration still a way from bringing Iran's oil exports down to zero, Opec can afford to carry on with its plans.

Mr Trump's moves follow action by former president Joe Biden during his final weeks in office, in which he placed new energy restrictions on Russia.

“So, I do think one of the other factors is, how tough does the US move towards more extensive maximum pressure at the same time that they're trying to tighten up, put more pressure on Russia?” Ms Ziemba said.

What is Reform?

Reform is a right-wing, populist party led by Nigel Farage, a former MEP who won a seat in the House of Commons last year at his eighth attempt and a prominent figure in the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union.

It was founded in 2018 and originally called the Brexit Party.

Many of its members previously belonged to UKIP or the mainstream Conservatives.

After Brexit took place, the party focused on the reformation of British democracy.

Former Tory deputy chairman Lee Anderson became its first MP after defecting in March 2024.

The party gained support from Elon Musk, and had hoped the tech billionaire would make a £100m donation. However, Mr Musk changed his mind and called for Mr Farage to step down as leader in a row involving the US tycoon's support for far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson who is in prison for contempt of court.

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What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE

Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.

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Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

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Rating: 3/5

White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogenChromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxideUltramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica contentOphiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on landOlivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.

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Funding: Seed funding 

Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors

Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

Three ways to boost your credit score

Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:

1. Make sure you make your payments on time;

2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;

3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.

Updated: February 05, 2025, 4:03 AM