Opec+ has agreed to increase its monthly oil output at 411,000 barrels per day for July, the same as in May and June, as it boosts supply at a time of trade tension-induced economic uncertainty.
Analysts say the move may be a gesture to mollify US President Donald Trump, who has spoken of his desire for lower crude prices.
The increase marks the third month in a row that the group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will raise production at the same level, Opec+ said in a statement following a virtual meeting on Saturday.
The decision was "in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories", the group said.
Opec+ noted that gradual increases may be paused or reversed "subject to evolving market conditions", giving them the "flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability".
The accelerated unwinding of Opec+'s own restriction programme is expected to boost the market's supply surplus into the second half of 2025 "when demand prospects are fragilised by trade tensions", Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, told The National.
Mr Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly called for lower oil prices to boost the domestic US oil industry.
"We don’t yet know if Opec+'s latest moves are to please Mr Trump or to [align] certain members" with the group's quotas, Ms Ozkardeskaya said.
"Yet the rising supply will likely continue to apply negative pressure on prices – unless there is a sudden shift in the tariff picture like ruling of the tariffs."
Oil prices started 2025 strongly. The closing price of Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, peaked at more than $82 a barrel on January 15, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, hit almost $79 per barrel also on that day.
However, crude prices have since waffled and have been particularly jolted by Mr Trump's sweeping global tariffs that he announced on April 2, which have disrupted stock markets and reignited fears of a global recession, especially as US trade partners – most notably China – unleashed retaliatory levies.
Since then, Brent and WTI have slipped more than 16 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively, and the uncertainty surrounding Mr Trump's flip-flopping over his tariff policies have put pressure on oil prices.
In March, Opec+ said it would proceed with a “gradual and flexible” unwinding of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd starting in April, adding 138,000 bpd per month until September 2026.
The planned return of production cuts – originally made by eight Opec+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE and Iraq, in November 2023 – had been pushed back several times amid concerns about growing supply in the market.
In March, the alliance released a new schedule for seven member nations to make further oil output cuts to compensate for exceeding their quotas. The plan includes monthly cuts ranging from 189,000 bpd to 435,000 bpd, with the reductions scheduled to last until June 2026.
Opec has been losing global market share in recent years. In 2024, their output was less than 27 million bpd, down from 30 million bpd a decade ago and after having peaked of 34 million bpd in 2016.
"In addition to trying to enforce stronger discipline within the group, Opec sees [increasing output] as a good opportunity to place pressure on higher cost oil producers, including US shale, and win back some market share," analysts at Jadwa Investment said.
"This policy has the added benefit of bolstering good relations with the US given President Trump’s stated desire for lower oil prices to bring down inflation in the US and force a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine war."
How Opec+ policy evolves during 2025 will largely depend on internal compliance issues and the broader developments in the oil market, with hikes seen to scale down should global crude inventories start to build up, they added.
The UAE's Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Suhail Al Mazrouei, this week said Opec+ should be “mindful” about oil demand, and that the group is “doing their best” to balance the market and ensure there is enough investment into the supply.
Mr Al Mazrouei's comments are "constructive", said Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at Swiss bank UBS.
"Opec+ crude exports are stable versus April, suggesting higher compliance and domestic demand keeps exports in check," the told The National.
At its ministerial meeting on Wednesday, Opec reiterated its "continued commitment ... to achieve and sustain a stable oil market".
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
SHADOWS%20AND%20LIGHT%3A%20THE%20EXTRAORDINARY%20LIFE%20OF%20JAMES%20MCBEY
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Alasdair%20Soussi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20300%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Scotland%20Street%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20December%201%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ON%20TRACK
%3Cp%3EThe%20Dubai%20Metaverse%20Assembly%20will%20host%20three%20main%20tracks%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEducate%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Consists%20of%20more%20than%2010%20in-depth%20sessions%20on%20the%20metaverse%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInspire%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Will%20showcase%20use%20cases%20of%20the%20metaverse%20in%20tourism%2C%20logistics%2C%20retail%2C%20education%20and%20health%20care%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EContribute%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Workshops%20for%20metaverse%20foresight%20and%20use-case%20reviews%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
Salah in numbers
€39 million: Liverpool agreed a fee, including add-ons, in the region of €39m (nearly Dh176m) to sign Salah from Roma last year. The exchange rate at the time meant that cost the Reds £34.3m - a bargain given his performances since.
13: The 25-year-old player was not a complete stranger to the Premier League when he arrived at Liverpool this summer. However, during his previous stint at Chelsea, he made just 13 Premier League appearances, seven of which were off the bench, and scored only twice.
57: It was in the 57th minute of his Liverpool bow when Salah opened his account for the Reds in the 3-3 draw with Watford back in August. The Egyptian prodded the ball over the line from close range after latching onto Roberto Firmino's attempted lob.
7: Salah's best scoring streak of the season occurred between an FA Cup tie against West Brom on January 27 and a Premier League win over Newcastle on March 3. He scored for seven games running in all competitions and struck twice against Tottenham.
3: This season Salah became the first player in Premier League history to win the player of the month award three times during a term. He was voted as the division's best player in November, February and March.
40: Salah joined Roger Hunt and Ian Rush as the only players in Liverpool's history to have scored 40 times in a single season when he headed home against Bournemouth at Anfield earlier this month.
30: The goal against Bournemouth ensured the Egyptian achieved another milestone in becoming the first African player to score 30 times across one Premier League campaign.
8: As well as his fine form in England, Salah has also scored eight times in the tournament phase of this season's Champions League. Only Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo, with 15 to his credit, has found the net more often in the group stages and knockout rounds of Europe's premier club competition.
Three ways to get a gratitude glow
By committing to at least one of these daily, you can bring more gratitude into your life, says Ong.
- During your morning skincare routine, name five things you are thankful for about yourself.
- As you finish your skincare routine, look yourself in the eye and speak an affirmation, such as: “I am grateful for every part of me, including my ability to take care of my skin.”
- In the evening, take some deep breaths, notice how your skin feels, and listen for what your skin is grateful for.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Brief scores:
Scotland 371-5, 50 overs (C MacLeod 140 no, K Coetzer 58, G Munsey 55)
England 365 all out, 48.5 overs (J Bairstow 105, A Hales 52; M Watt 3-55)
Result: Scotland won by six runs
RACE CARD
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 – Group 1 (PA) $65,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (Turf) 1,800m
7.40pm: Meydan Classic – Listed (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $195,000 (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (T) 2,000m
9.25pm: Meydan Challenge – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,400m
RESULT
Leeds United 1 Manchester City 1
Leeds: Rodrigo (59')
Man City: Sterling (17')
Man of the Match: Rodrigo Moreno (Leeds)
European arms
Known EU weapons transfers to Ukraine since the war began: Germany 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Luxembourg 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents as well as air transport capacity. Belgium 2,000 machine guns, 3,800 tons of fuel. Netherlands 200 Stinger missiles. Poland 100 mortars, 8 drones, Javelin anti-tank weapons, Grot assault rifles, munitions. Slovakia 12,000 pieces of artillery ammunition, 10 million litres of fuel, 2.4 million litres of aviation fuel and 2 Bozena de-mining systems. Estonia Javelin anti-tank weapons. Latvia Stinger surface to air missiles. Czech Republic machine guns, assault rifles, other light weapons and ammunition worth $8.57 million.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Read more from Mina Al-Oraibi
Results
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group 1 (PA) US$75,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Ziyadd, Richard Mullen (jockey), Jean de Roualle (trainer).
7.05pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Barney Roy, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm: Meydan Cup Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,810m
Winner: Secret Advisor, Tadhg O’Shea, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Plata O Plomo, Carlos Lopez, Susanne Berneklint.
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
9.25pm: Al Shindagha Sprint Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
Fourth Arab Economic and Social Development Summit
As he spoke, Mr Aboul Gheit repeatedly referred to the need to tackle issues affecting the welfare of people across the region both in terms of preventing conflict and in pushing development.
Lebanon is scheduled to host the fourth Arab Economic and Social Development Summit in January that will see regional leaders gather to tackle the challenges facing the Middle East. The last such summit was held in 2013. Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki told The National that the Beirut Summit “will be an opportunity for Arab leaders to discuss solely economic and social issues, the conference will not focus on political concerns such as Palestine, Syria or Libya". He added that its slogan will be “the individual is at the heart of development”, adding that it will focus on all elements of human capital.
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Sreesanth's India bowling career
Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40
ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55
T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12
Cherry
Directed by: Joe and Anthony Russo
Starring: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo
1/5
Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Pakhtoons 137-6 (10 ov)
Fletcher 68 not out; Cutting 2-14
Sindhis 129-8 (10 ov)
Perera 47; Sohail 2-18
Palestine and Israel - live updates
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Scoreline
Bournemouth 2
Wilson 70', Ibe 74'
Arsenal 1
Bellerin 52'
