Open fighting between Israel and Iran, and missile and drone strikes on oil and gas facilities would once have triggered crisis in energy markets.
Yet after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, joined by the US, oil prices are lower than when it started. Has the oil and gas industry learnt lessons from this brief conflict? More importantly, has it learnt the right lessons?
First, the market is not worried about disruption to energy supplies from the Gulf. Despite two of the Middle East's key military and political powers lobbing missiles at each other, despite the US directly bombing Iran for the first time ever and Tehran also countering for the first time by attacking the territory of a Gulf state, oil prices are lower now than before the conflict broke out.
After a brief 20 per cent rise, gas prices in Europe have also dropped to below their pre-June 12 levels, even though the continent needs Gulf liquefied natural gas (LNG) to make up for the loss of Russian imports.
Following much more nervous periods in the early 2000s, when a whiff of gunpowder could put $10 on the oil price, four factors are at play.
The rise of the US’s shale oil and gas output has diversified supplies, and it could increase output further in the case of a prolonged disruption and price spike.
Opec members hold major spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq, while Iran’s own output has stagnated.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have built or expanded pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
And the world economy is less oil-dependent – a barrel of oil generates $2,500 of world gross domestic product today, up from $1,725 in 2000. Renewable energy and electric vehicles are now genuine alternatives at commercial scale to oil and gas.
But perhaps all these factors are secondary to the fable of the “boy who cried wolf”. Iranian politicos and military officials have often threatened to “close the Strait of Hormuz” at times of geopolitical tension and analysts have studied the possible threats, implications and countermeasures to exhaustion.
Of course, the fighting had some impacts on specific parts of the energy business, sharply pushing up diesel and jet fuel prices, tanker hire rates and insurance. But overall, the oil market appears to have decided that it will wait to see real physical disruption or destruction before reacting dramatically.
Second, there is still restraint in targeting energy sites. Probably not wanting to be blamed for causing a global energy crisis, Israel did not attack Iran’s oil export capacities. Its strikes against domestic oil depots and gas processing plants appear more in the nature of a warning and have not caused long-lasting disruption.
Iranian missiles did damage facilities at the Bazan plant in Haifa, one of Israel’s two oil refineries. But Israel’s three offshore gasfields have avoided damage, even though since October 2023, they have seemed like obvious, critical and hard-to-defend targets for missiles or drones from Iran or its allies, notably Hezbollah.
Third, the Gulf countries’ outreach to Iran, and the assistance of China in mediating the Saudi-Iran normalisation of March 2023, has been helpful in keeping them out of conflict. Doha was certainly not happy to have Iranian missiles targeted at the US’s Al Udeid base on its soil, but no serious damage was done and the Iranians were quick to make it clear that the nation of Qatar was not their target.
But what if these lessons are false? Or, at least, not teaching us what we think? Complacency in such critical matters could be catastrophic.
Restraint tends to fall away as conflicts draw on. Weapons are used with greater ingenuity and desperation. Ukraine has showed that well with its increasingly sophisticated penetration of Russian defences, its strikes against oil refineries, key bridges and rail lines, and bomber bases.
Iran and, before it, Hezbollah were taken aback by the elimination of so many key commanders early in the conflict. That may have limited their ability to execute more damaging retaliation this time. Aerial and maritime drones give capacity for much more precise strikes than were possible in previous periods of panic in the early 2000s.
Israel and the US have given mixed messages on whether their goal was the elimination or setback of Iran’s nuclear programme, or regime change. If the Islamic Republic were seriously in danger of destruction, though, it would become far more likely to use whatever remaining leverage over world energy supplies it had. The boy who cried wolf, of course, was eventually eaten by a wolf.
The region and the key external players need to move beyond fragile ceasefires, containment and the rule of the gun, to multilateral peacebuilding
In some ways, the global energy system is more robust than in the early 2000s. In others, it has become more vulnerable – because of the loss of Russian gas to Europe, the much greater reliance globally on Gulf LNG, and the disruption of shipping through the southern Red Sea.
As former Egyptian president Anwar Sadat used to say, “the US holds 99 per cent of the cards in the Middle East”. It may not be so high these days, and Sadat himself admitted in private, “The United States actually holds only 60 per cent”.
But neither of Iran’s backers, China or Russia, seem to hold even 10 per cent, nor were of any obvious use in halting the Israeli or American attacks. Concern for what Beijing thinks might hold back Tehran from attacking its Gulf neighbours, but the fear of US retaliation remains a bigger restraining factor.
We have, so far, got away with an exceptionally dangerous situation. The solutions are threefold.
First, regional states including the Gulf should continue building energy security and resilience, including better defences, and diversified infrastructure.
Second, energy importers should accelerate their efforts on non-petroleum technologies, bringing environmental as well as security gains.
Third, the region and the key external players need to move beyond fragile ceasefires, containment and the rule of the gun, to multilateral peacebuilding.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The specs: 2018 Honda City
Price, base: From Dh57,000
Engine: 1.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 118hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 146Nm @ 4,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.8L / 100km
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
The five types of long-term residential visas
Obed Suhail of ServiceMarket, an online home services marketplace, outlines the five types of long-term residential visas:
Investors:
A 10-year residency visa can be obtained by investors who invest Dh10 million, out of which 60 per cent should not be in real estate. It can be a public investment through a deposit or in a business. Those who invest Dh5 million or more in property are eligible for a five-year residency visa. The invested amount should be completely owned by the investors, not loaned, and retained for at least three years.
Entrepreneurs:
A five-year multiple entry visa is available to entrepreneurs with a previous project worth Dh0.5m or those with the approval of an accredited business incubator in the UAE.
Specialists
Expats with specialised talents, including doctors, specialists, scientists, inventors, and creative individuals working in the field of culture and art are eligible for a 10-year visa, given that they have a valid employment contract in one of these fields in the country.
Outstanding students:
A five-year visa will be granted to outstanding students who have a grade of 95 per cent or higher in a secondary school, or those who graduate with a GPA of 3.75 from a university.
Retirees:
Expats who are at least 55 years old can obtain a five-year retirement visa if they invest Dh2m in property, have savings of Dh1m or more, or have a monthly income of at least Dh20,000.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
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Hotel Silence
Auður Ava Ólafsdóttir
Pushkin Press
Bio:
Favourite Quote: Prophet Mohammad's quotes There is reward for kindness to every living thing and A good man treats women with honour
Favourite Hobby: Serving poor people
Favourite Book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite food: Fish and vegetables
Favourite place to visit: London
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KLOPP%20AT%20LIVERPOOL
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Mane 51', Salah 53'
Chelsea 0
Man of the Match: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The biog
Favourite food: Fish and seafood
Favourite hobby: Socialising with friends
Favourite quote: You only get out what you put in!
Favourite country to visit: Italy
Favourite film: Lock Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.
Family: We all have one!
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
The biog
Favourite film: Motorcycle Dairies, Monsieur Hulot’s Holiday, Kagemusha
Favourite book: One Hundred Years of Solitude
Holiday destination: Sri Lanka
First car: VW Golf
Proudest achievement: Building Robotics Labs at Khalifa University and King’s College London, Daughters
Driverless cars or drones: Driverless Cars
Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Feb 7-9: Mubadala Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Mar 9-10: Copper Box Arena in London, UK
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania
Verdict: 4 Stars
Copa del Rey
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Semi-final, first leg
Wednesday (midnight UAE)
Scoreline:
Manchester City 1
Jesus 4'
Brighton 0
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
Biography
Favourite book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
Holiday choice: Anything Disney-related
Proudest achievement: Receiving a presidential award for foreign services.
Family: Wife and three children.
Like motto: You always get what you ask for, the universe listens.
