Energy was one of the most freely traded goods in the post-Second World War era, even behind the Iron Curtain. A flood of sanctions has eroded that in recent years. But are the latest EU-US trade deal and Donald Trump’s tariff threats an even greater danger?
Under Thursday’s trade pact, the EU has agreed to buy an extra $250 billion of US energy each year until 2027, and invest $600 billion in the US by 2028.
Separately, Mr Trump has proposed “secondary tariffs” on countries buying Russian oil, notably India. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told China that it would face 100 per cent tariffs if it continued to purchase Russian oil, for which it is the biggest customer.
The reality of the European deal can be dismissed in detail.
Impossible numbers
The bloc imported $76 billion of American coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil last year. The US exported $318 billion of energy to all its customers, and EU customers imported nearly $407 billion of energy from all suppliers. So, the US would have to divert all its energy exports to Europe, and Europe would in turn have to buy almost exclusively from America.
Yes, US LNG exports are set to rise substantially. Here are some easy gains in energy trade for the EU. The last remnants of the old Russian gas empire will be swept away, as Brussels plans to end imports from its hostile neighbour by 2027.
But prices are likely to fall as new supply comes online over the next five years, from Qatar, the UAE, Canada and elsewhere as well as the US. Japan and South Korea have also agreed to buy more American energy products. Meanwhile, the EU’s bulk energy buys will probably keep falling, as renewables and electric vehicles meet more of its needs.
“Europe” does not buy energy – its companies and consumers do. There is no way for Brussels to redirect energy trade on the massive scale required to meet these commitments. Big chunks of the imports are from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan, tied into the EU by gas pipelines. These are not going to be diverted elsewhere, whatever the White House tries to dictate.
Similarly, US companies decide whom to sell to on commercial, not political grounds. Here, admittedly, some combination of arm-twisting and subsidies might divert trade. But that is more likely to relate to large, visible, single inward investments such as Japan’s reported interest in the $44 billion Alaska LNG project.
One-trick trade pony
European companies would invest in renewable, hydrogen and electric vehicle projects in the US – but these are undercut by the current administration’s hostility. The withdrawal of tax incentives, increased barriers to receiving permits, and onerous rules on foreign content, make them unappealing. As Nippon Steel found out in its purchase of US Steel, sizeable foreign acquisitions of American companies are also likely to face unreasonable opposition and an opaque process of lobbying to win approval.
The reliance on energy sales shows the US to be a one-trick trade pony – or at best, three tricks, including agricultural goods and weapons. Its other goods are not very competitive – gas-guzzling cars and planes that fall out of the sky – and will become even less so as tariffs drive up input costs for key materials such as aluminium, steel and copper.
Ultimately, such trade commitments by Europe are not going to raise US oil and gas output. So, even if fulfilled, they just shuffle energy trade around.
Sanctions could be a different matter. Mr Trump could execute his threat of 100 per cent tariffs against India and China if they persist in buying Russian oil. This is a bizarre approach to defeating Moscow’s war against Ukraine, instead of imposing stronger sanctions on specific customers and shippers, which is the same approach used against Iran.
Beijing will not back down; it cannot allow its economic model, its foreign policy, its alignment with Moscow, to be dictated by Washington. It buys about two million barrels per day of Russian oil.
New Delhi might concede, though. It has not changed its policy yet, but Reuters reported that Indian oil refineries had paused purchases of Russian oil while matters are worked out. India’s imports of Russian oil averaged 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of this year. The third major customer, Turkey, takes about 250,000 barrels daily.
If India and Turkey drop out, China would no doubt step up its purchases of Russian oil, but it would not take all the remainder. This is partly for logistical reasons, but also political. It would gain further leverage over its junior ally, and could extract generous discounts, as it does from Iran, where it is essentially the only customer.
So, there would probably be an overall reduction in Russian oil exports. The gap would be filled by Opec+, depending on its policy decisions, and potentially by higher US output. But US oil production will only increase if prices rise substantially. Mr Trump has shown himself acutely sensitive to inflation and to the concerns of American drivers, preferring lower rather than higher prices, to the discomfort of his supporters in Texas.
So how does this all tie together? Less Russian oil and gas means more room for Gulf suppliers. If they end up sending less to Europe to fill a gap in India, or if prices rise enough to boost American production, the US may then supply more to Europe, cosmetically satisfying part of the trade deal.
The inconsistency and volatile, contradictory messages emanating from the White House make all this very hard to evaluate. There’s a good chance that the impending “secondary tariffs” never materialise. Yet what is clear that a free and liquid energy market is being replaced by a constrained and politicised one.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Company info
Company name: Entrupy
Co-founders: Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder/chief executive, Ashlesh Sharma, co-founder/chief technology officer, Lakshmi Subramanian, co-founder/chief scientist
Based: New York, New York
Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.
Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius.
Total customers: Entrupy’s customers include hundreds of secondary resellers, marketplaces and other retail organisations around the world. They are also testing with shipping companies as well as customs agencies to stop fake items from reaching the market in the first place.
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KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Miss Granny
Director: Joyce Bernal
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West Ham United 2 (Antonio 73', Ogbonna 90 5')
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 36', Moura 42', Kane 49')
MATCH INFO
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Hertha Berlin 2 (Grujic 9', Piatek 82' pen)
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T20 squad against Ireland and England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Raina, Pandey, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh.
ODI squad against England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Shreyas, Rayudu, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh
SCHEDULE
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UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
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3/5
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The UAE's journey to space
Meydan race card
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Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
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TUESDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 2pm:
Malin Cilic (CRO) v Benoit Paire (FRA) [8]
Not before 4pm:
Dan Evans (GBR) v Fabio Fogini (ITA) [4]
Not before 7pm:
Pablo Carreno Busta (SPA) v Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [2]
Roberto Bautista Agut (SPA) [5] v Jan-Lennard Struff (GER)
Court One
Starting at 2pm
Prajnesh Gunneswaran (IND) v Dennis Novak (AUT)
Joao Sousa (POR) v Filip Krajinovic (SRB)
Not before 5pm:
Rajeev Ram (USA) and Joe Salisbury (GBR) [1] v Marin Cilic v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Ricardas Berankis (LTU)
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Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
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