Energy was one of the most freely traded goods in the post-Second World War era, even behind the Iron Curtain. A flood of sanctions has eroded that in recent years. But are the latest EU-US trade deal and Donald Trump’s tariff threats an even greater danger?
Under Thursday’s trade pact, the EU has agreed to buy an extra $250 billion of US energy each year until 2027, and invest $600 billion in the US by 2028.
Separately, Mr Trump has proposed “secondary tariffs” on countries buying Russian oil, notably India. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told China that it would face 100 per cent tariffs if it continued to purchase Russian oil, for which it is the biggest customer.
The reality of the European deal can be dismissed in detail.
Impossible numbers
The bloc imported $76 billion of American coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil last year. The US exported $318 billion of energy to all its customers, and EU customers imported nearly $407 billion of energy from all suppliers. So, the US would have to divert all its energy exports to Europe, and Europe would in turn have to buy almost exclusively from America.
Yes, US LNG exports are set to rise substantially. Here are some easy gains in energy trade for the EU. The last remnants of the old Russian gas empire will be swept away, as Brussels plans to end imports from its hostile neighbour by 2027.
But prices are likely to fall as new supply comes online over the next five years, from Qatar, the UAE, Canada and elsewhere as well as the US. Japan and South Korea have also agreed to buy more American energy products. Meanwhile, the EU’s bulk energy buys will probably keep falling, as renewables and electric vehicles meet more of its needs.
“Europe” does not buy energy – its companies and consumers do. There is no way for Brussels to redirect energy trade on the massive scale required to meet these commitments. Big chunks of the imports are from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan, tied into the EU by gas pipelines. These are not going to be diverted elsewhere, whatever the White House tries to dictate.
Similarly, US companies decide whom to sell to on commercial, not political grounds. Here, admittedly, some combination of arm-twisting and subsidies might divert trade. But that is more likely to relate to large, visible, single inward investments such as Japan’s reported interest in the $44 billion Alaska LNG project.
One-trick trade pony
European companies would invest in renewable, hydrogen and electric vehicle projects in the US – but these are undercut by the current administration’s hostility. The withdrawal of tax incentives, increased barriers to receiving permits, and onerous rules on foreign content, make them unappealing. As Nippon Steel found out in its purchase of US Steel, sizeable foreign acquisitions of American companies are also likely to face unreasonable opposition and an opaque process of lobbying to win approval.
The reliance on energy sales shows the US to be a one-trick trade pony – or at best, three tricks, including agricultural goods and weapons. Its other goods are not very competitive – gas-guzzling cars and planes that fall out of the sky – and will become even less so as tariffs drive up input costs for key materials such as aluminium, steel and copper.
Ultimately, such trade commitments by Europe are not going to raise US oil and gas output. So, even if fulfilled, they just shuffle energy trade around.
Sanctions could be a different matter. Mr Trump could execute his threat of 100 per cent tariffs against India and China if they persist in buying Russian oil. This is a bizarre approach to defeating Moscow’s war against Ukraine, instead of imposing stronger sanctions on specific customers and shippers, which is the same approach used against Iran.
Beijing will not back down; it cannot allow its economic model, its foreign policy, its alignment with Moscow, to be dictated by Washington. It buys about two million barrels per day of Russian oil.
New Delhi might concede, though. It has not changed its policy yet, but Reuters reported that Indian oil refineries had paused purchases of Russian oil while matters are worked out. India’s imports of Russian oil averaged 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of this year. The third major customer, Turkey, takes about 250,000 barrels daily.
If India and Turkey drop out, China would no doubt step up its purchases of Russian oil, but it would not take all the remainder. This is partly for logistical reasons, but also political. It would gain further leverage over its junior ally, and could extract generous discounts, as it does from Iran, where it is essentially the only customer.
So, there would probably be an overall reduction in Russian oil exports. The gap would be filled by Opec+, depending on its policy decisions, and potentially by higher US output. But US oil production will only increase if prices rise substantially. Mr Trump has shown himself acutely sensitive to inflation and to the concerns of American drivers, preferring lower rather than higher prices, to the discomfort of his supporters in Texas.
So how does this all tie together? Less Russian oil and gas means more room for Gulf suppliers. If they end up sending less to Europe to fill a gap in India, or if prices rise enough to boost American production, the US may then supply more to Europe, cosmetically satisfying part of the trade deal.
The inconsistency and volatile, contradictory messages emanating from the White House make all this very hard to evaluate. There’s a good chance that the impending “secondary tariffs” never materialise. Yet what is clear that a free and liquid energy market is being replaced by a constrained and politicised one.
Specs
Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
The Indoor Cricket World Cup
When: September 16-23
Where: Insportz, Dubai
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi T10
*November 15 to November 24
*Venue: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
*Tickets: Start at Dh10, from ttensports.com
*TV: Ten Sports
*Streaming: Jio Live
*2017 winners: Kerala Kings
*2018 winners: Northern Warriors
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (all kick-offs UAE time)
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (10.30pm)
Saturday
Freiburg v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Sunday
Schalke v Augsburg (3.30pm)
Mainz v RB Leipzig (5.30pm)
Cologne v Fortuna Dusseldorf (8pm)
Results
Ashraf Ghani 50.64 per cent
Abdullah Abdullah 39.52 per cent
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 3.85 per cent
Rahmatullah Nabil 1.8 per cent
The biog
Favourite book: Animal Farm by George Orwell
Favourite music: Classical
Hobbies: Reading and writing
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Company profile
Date started: January, 2014
Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe
Based: Dubai
Sector: Education technology
Size: Five employees
Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.
Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
Fast%20X
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MATCH INFO
Liverpool 3
Sadio Man 28'
Andrew Robertson 34'
Diogo Jota 88'
Arsenal 1
Lacazette 25'
Man of the match
Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
Liverpool’s fixtures until end of 2019
Saturday, November 30, Brighton (h)
Wednesday, December 4, Everton (h)
Saturday, December 7, Bournemouth (a)
Tuesday, December 10, Salzburg (a) CL
Saturday, December 14, Watford (h)
Tuesday, December 17, Aston Villa (a) League Cup
Wednesday, December 18, Club World Cup in Qatar
Saturday, December 21, Club World Cup in Qatar
Thursday, December 26, Leicester (a)
Sunday, December 29, Wolves (h)
Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
MATCH INFO
Manchester United v Brighton, Sunday, 6pm UAE
What is hepatitis?
Hepatitis is an inflammation of the liver, which can lead to fibrosis (scarring), cirrhosis or liver cancer.
There are 5 main hepatitis viruses, referred to as types A, B, C, D and E.
Hepatitis C is mostly transmitted through exposure to infective blood. This can occur through blood transfusions, contaminated injections during medical procedures, and through injecting drugs. Sexual transmission is also possible, but is much less common.
People infected with hepatitis C experience few or no symptoms, meaning they can live with the virus for years without being diagnosed. This delay in treatment can increase the risk of significant liver damage.
There are an estimated 170 million carriers of Hepatitis C around the world.
The virus causes approximately 399,000 fatalities each year worldwide, according to WHO.
The%C2%A0specs%20
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UAE%20ILT20
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MATCH INFO
Osasuna 1 Real Madrid 4
Osasuna: García (14')
Real Madrid: Isco (33'), Ramos (38'), Vázquez (84'), Jovic (90' 2)
Autumn international scores
Saturday, November 24
Italy 3-66 New Zealand
Scotland 14-9 Argentina
England 37-18 Australia
'Joker'
Directed by: Todd Phillips
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix
Rating: Five out of five stars
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SCE%20Studio%20Cambridge%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%2C%20PlayStation%204%20and%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Karnataka Tuskers 110-5 (10 ovs)
Tharanga 48, Shafiq 34, Rampaul 2-16
Delhi Bulls 91-8 (10 ovs)
Mathews 31, Rimmington 3-28
Karnataka Tuskers win by 19 runs
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
A cheaper choice
Vanuatu: $130,000
Why on earth pick Vanuatu? Easy. The South Pacific country has no income tax, wealth tax, capital gains or inheritance tax. And in 2015, when it was hit by Cyclone Pam, it signed an agreement with the EU that gave it some serious passport power.
Cost: A minimum investment of $130,000 for a family of up to four, plus $25,000 in fees.
Criteria: Applicants must have a minimum net worth of $250,000. The process take six to eight weeks, after which the investor must travel to Vanuatu or Hong Kong to take the oath of allegiance. Citizenship and passport are normally provided on the same day.
Benefits: No tax, no restrictions on dual citizenship, no requirement to visit or reside to retain a passport. Visa-free access to 129 countries.
