What are, in theory, some key US strategic objectives? To diminish Russian energy earnings, bolster an anti-Russian coalition, build up India as a counterweight to China, open the Indian market to American exports, keep oil prices moderate, and promote global economic growth. Its latest oil sanctions policy pursues the first goal at the cost of all the others.
US President Donald Trump’s latest executive order adds a 25 per cent tariff on India’s goods, because of its purchase of Russian oil, on top of the general 25 per cent levy. “I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,” he posted.
The sanctions threat has already had an effect. Russia’s Urals crude blend had been sold in India almost at parity to the international benchmark, Brent, a two weeks ago; now it is discounted by more than $5 per barrel. Indian refineries have stopped spot buys of Russian crude and secured at least 22 million barrels of non-Russian oil for September and October.
If India cuts back on Russian oil, perhaps as part of a compromise deal, China will pick up some of the slack. But for logistical reasons, it is unlikely that it can take all the spare Russian crude. That will cut Russian energy earnings.
Mr Trump announced on Friday he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the former Russian territory of Alaska. On its own, further sanctions pressure will not force Mr Putin into serious negotiations. But it will add to other strains on the Russian economy, and perhaps slow its war machine. Europe, finally, is taking measures against other Russian exports, particularly in phasing out imports of its adversary’s gas.
So far, so good. What about the other effects of this policy?
India has not taken the news well, to say the least.
Its position on Russia’s war against Ukraine has been morally questionable, its refiners have jumped on the chance to profit from discounted crude, and it is not smart to condone invasion when China has occupied Indian-claimed land since 1962.
India’s purchases of Russian oil rose from 0.2 per cent of its needs before the invasion of Ukraine, to 36 per cent now, selling some of the products back to Europe. New EU measures will indeed clamp down on that loophole.
But New Delhi rightly points out that the whole structure of US and European sanctions was designed to allow it, and China, to continue buying Russian oil to avoid escalating oil prices. By restricting Russian sales, it was hoped its customers could extract discounts – as they have, although these have diminished over time. And sales using western shipping or services were supposed to abide by a price cap. This has proved hard to enforce, but that is not India’s responsibility.
India is far from the only country buying Russian oil. While India imports about 1.8 million barrels from Russia, last month, China bought about 1 million barrels per day by sea and a similar amount by overland pipeline, and Turkey took about 300,000 bpd. Even in Europe, Hungary and Slovakia have exemptions to continue buying some Russian crude. In June, Japan imported its first Russian oil for three years.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promptly invited Mr Putin to visit India for an annual summit later in the year. India signed agreements to co-operate with Russia on aerospace as well as in various strategic minerals, while suspending purchases of American weapons. And Mr Modi plans to visit China for the first time in seven years later this month.
Beijing will not bow to similar threats. If necessary, it will endure even higher US tariffs. It cannot afford to seem weak; making Chinese goods unaffordable will push up prices and empty shelves in the US, piling political pressure on Mr Trump. It has cut exports of critical minerals to stress US technology and defence corporations. The Middle Kingdom now buys almost no American oil, gas or coal. It will no doubt snap up additional Russian barrels at a discount.
India’s domestic market is indeed the most protected among major economies, or was, before the US began walling itself off. But Mr Trump’s tariffs are imposed, varied, exempted and withdrawn so frequently and for so many ostensible reasons – safeguarding national security, boosting domestic manufacturing, raising revenue, forcing others to open their markets, stopping drug smuggling – that they cease to be useful as a negotiating tool.
Cutting Russian oil exports will raise world oil prices. Mr Trump has shown himself very sensitive to domestic pump prices and inflation. His trade adviser and tariff fan Peter Navarro has said the President favours oil prices of about $50 per barrel.
Yet this part of the tariffs and sanctions threats actually may not work out too badly. If China holds firm, then the maximum loss to the market from the “secondary tariffs” will be the 2.1 million bpd of recent Indian and Turkish imports, and probably less. That would boost oil prices to the mid-80s per barrel.
The oil market is expected to soften in the final part of the year – partly because of economic uncertainty caused by the US trade offensive. Opec+ has made large increases in allowable production. The group, of course, includes Russia, but it still holds dry powder.
Having now in principle eliminated the 2.2 million bpd of “voluntary” cuts by a subgroup of eight countries, it has a further voluntary tranche of 1.65 million barrels per day, then 2 million bpd of cuts committed by all Opec+ members, which is due to expire at the end of next year.
Not all of these are real barrels. Members will increasingly find that they cannot raise production to target levels, particularly at short notice. But Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq still have significant room to expand, and Kazakhstan continues overproducing substantially. They will be glad to fill a market gap in India, from which Russian oil had squeezed them out. That assumes that Russia does not retaliate by blocking Kazakh exports too, which go through its territory, or that US sanctions do not inadvertently catch Kazakh barrels.
Somewhat higher prices would also encourage growth in US output, compensation for the Texan drillers who have been disgruntled by their president’s pursuit of cheaper oil even as they cheer his pro-fossil fuel agenda.
A more skilful policy would agree with India that it would steadily reduce purchases of Russian oil, issuing waivers to Indian refiners who comply, and sanctioning those who do not. That is what was previously done with Iranian oil exports.
But otherwise, insulting India, and using the tariff sledgehammer instead of the sanctions scalpel, will prove counterproductive. The US is pushing the dominant power in South Asia, a natural ally, into the arms of its two Eurasian rivals. It will advantage the Chinese economy while it makes Beijing seem the more reasonable international partner. Or, Mr Trump may back down in Alaska and hand Mr Putin another economic and diplomatic win.
Batti Gul Meter Chalu
Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
%3Cp%3EElena%20Rybakina%20(Kazakhstan)%0D%3Cbr%3EOns%20Jabeur%20(Tunisia)%0D%3Cbr%3EMaria%20Sakkari%20(Greece)%0D%3Cbr%3EBarbora%20Krej%C4%8D%C3%ADkov%C3%A1%20(Czech%20Republic)%0D%3Cbr%3EBeatriz%20Haddad%20Maia%20(Brazil)%0D%3Cbr%3EJe%C4%BCena%20Ostapenko%20(Latvia)%0D%3Cbr%3ELiudmila%20Samsonova%0D%3Cbr%3EDaria%20Kasatkina%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EVeronika%20Kudermetova%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3ECaroline%20Garcia%20(France)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EMagda%20Linette%20(Poland)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3ESorana%20C%C3%AErstea%20(Romania)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EAnastasia%20Potapova%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EAnhelina%20Kalinina%20(Ukraine)%E2%80%AF%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EJasmine%20Paolini%20(Italy)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3EEmma%20Navarro%20(USA)%E2%80%AF%0D%3Cbr%3ELesia%20Tsurenko%20(Ukraine)%0D%3Cbr%3ENaomi%20Osaka%20(Japan)%20-%20wildcard%0D%3Cbr%3EEmma%20Raducanu%20(Great%20Britain)%20-%20wildcard%3Cbr%3EAlexandra%20Eala%20(Philippines)%20-%20wildcard%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand
October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Background: Chemical Weapons
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Racecard
6.35pm: The Madjani Stakes – Group 2 (PA) Dh97,500 (Dirt) 1,900m
7.10pm: Evidenza – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,200m
7.45pm: The Longines Conquest – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 2,000m
8.20: The Longines Elegant – Conditions (TB) Dh82,500 (D)
8.35pm: The Dubai Creek Mile – Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 1,600m
9.30pm: Mirdif Stakes – Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,400m
10.05pm: The Longines Record – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,900m
Selected fixtures
All times UAE
Wednesday
Poland v Portugal 10.45pm
Russia v Sweden 10.45pm
Friday
Belgium v Switzerland 10.45pm
Croatia v England 10.45pm
Saturday
Netherlands v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Denmark 10.45pm
Sunday
Poland v Italy 10.45pm
Monday
Spain v England 10.45pm
Tuesday
France v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Wales 10.45pm
Coming soon
Torno Subito by Massimo Bottura
When the W Dubai – The Palm hotel opens at the end of this year, one of the highlights will be Massimo Bottura’s new restaurant, Torno Subito, which promises “to take guests on a journey back to 1960s Italy”. It is the three Michelinstarred chef’s first venture in Dubai and should be every bit as ambitious as you would expect from the man whose restaurant in Italy, Osteria Francescana, was crowned number one in this year’s list of the World’s 50 Best Restaurants.
Akira Back Dubai
Another exciting opening at the W Dubai – The Palm hotel is South Korean chef Akira Back’s new restaurant, which will continue to showcase some of the finest Asian food in the world. Back, whose Seoul restaurant, Dosa, won a Michelin star last year, describes his menu as, “an innovative Japanese cuisine prepared with a Korean accent”.
Dinner by Heston Blumenthal
The highly experimental chef, whose dishes are as much about spectacle as taste, opens his first restaurant in Dubai next year. Housed at The Royal Atlantis Resort & Residences, Dinner by Heston Blumenthal will feature contemporary twists on recipes that date back to the 1300s, including goats’ milk cheesecake. Always remember with a Blumenthal dish: nothing is quite as it seems.
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
Results
2pm: Serve U – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m; Winner: Violent Justice, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
2.30pm: Al Shafar Investment – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,400m; Winner: Desert Wisdom, Bernardo Pinheiro, Ahmed Al Shemaili
3pm: Commercial Bank of Dubai – Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Fawaareq, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
3.30pm: Shadwell – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
4pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Rakeez, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
4.30pm: Al Redha Insurance Brokers – Handicap (TB) Dh78,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Capla Crusader, Bernardo Pinheiro, Rashed Bouresly
Avengers: Endgame
Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin
4/5 stars
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
