“Greetings from the Birds of the Unmanned Systems Forces,” said Ukraine’s drone leader in August, Robert Brovdi, after attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
Over the past two months, Ukraine has intensified its campaign against its enemy’s oil refineries, hitting 21 of its 38 large plants. On Friday, a drone struck the Orsk refinery on the Kazakh border more than 1,500km from Ukraine.
Why is Ukraine launching such attacks? Will they seriously hamper Russia’s war economy or its ability to fight? And what might Kyiv do next?
Stalemate on the front lines in eastern Ukraine has led both sides to seek other ways to wage war. Russia, for its part, has conducted its largest drone and missile assault ever on Ukraine’s gas sites on Friday, trying to cut off power and heating as winter approaches.
About 80 per cent of Ukraine’s long-range weapon strikes on Russia have attacked petroleum sites. Kyiv has clearly identified this as its adversary’s key vulnerability.
Attacking refineries is one way to harm Russia’s economy. They are large, vulnerable, explosive targets, but are usually away from urban areas, thus minimising civilian casualties. This is in sharp contrast to Russia’s incessant attacks on Ukrainian cities. They supply fuel to Russia’s armed forces, so they are arguably a legitimate military target. Blowing up refineries does not directly stop Russian oil flows, which could cause world prices to rise sharply and diminish European and American support.
Refineries not only supply Russia’s domestic market, but also account for a large part of its oil exports. It has only three main customers for its crude now, China, India and Turkey. In contrast, exports of products such as diesel and petrol can be marketed much more widely, in smaller quantities, and blended or laundered with other countries’ products to disguise the origin.
Ukraine waged a similar drone campaign starting in April last year. That caused damage but no serious or lengthy interruptions to Russian refining or fuel supply. It mostly hit the Rostov and Krasnodar refineries in southern Russia, relatively close to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Now Kyiv’s drones are gaining in numbers, range and payload. As well as the latest mission against Orsk, they have struck refinery and petrochemical targets as far as 1,500km away, in the Perm region in the Urals, and 2,000km distant in the far northern Komi Republic. Russia’s defensive measures do not seem to be keeping up.
This year’s offensive started in August, during the harvest and holiday season, when fuel consumption rises. Drone sightings around Russian airports have closed them down on occasion, sending more people into cars for their holidays.
Estimates suggest that 38 per cent of primary refinery capacity could be offline, and that petrol and diesel capacity has fallen 24 per cent from July to September. Fuel shortages have been reported across Russia, particularly in the Far East, and in the occupied Crimea region.
These numbers should be taken with caution, as noted by Sergey Vakulenko, formerly a senior executive at state oil major Gazprom Neft. They imply that every refinery attacked has been put out of operation, at least temporarily. Russia had about 22 per cent spare refining capacity before this campaign. Minor damage can be repaired quickly, as it was last year. Russia exports about 55 per cent of its refined products, so these attacks will not necessarily cause lasting domestic shortages, even though they affect local distribution networks.
But repeated attacks will have a cumulative effect, as plants wear out and stocks of spare parts are exhausted. If strikes damage sophisticated components such as the hydrocracker or alkylation unit, they will be expensive and hard to replace, as sanctions hamper access to international technology. Russia’s diversion of skilled technical workers to the front line or to war industries is a further problem.
US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on India has not dented that country’s purchases of cut-price Russian crude. But the EU now seems finally ready to shut off oil imports through the Druzhba pipeline, which serves two pro-Kremlin EU states, Slovakia and Hungary.
Last week, the French navy boarded a tanker, part of the Russian “shadow fleet”, suspected of launching drones that disrupted airport operations in Denmark. The shaky insurance and technical condition of the shadow fleet could give Europe further incentive to clamp down on its passage through the narrow Baltic straits.
There have also been hints of a new approach by Kyiv. On August 12 and 21 and September 7, drones struck pumping stations on the Druzhba pipeline in the Bryansk region. August 24 saw about 10 drones hit gas-condensate storage at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, near St Petersburg. On September 25, the office of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Novorossiysk was hit. Loading at the crucial Black Sea oil port was temporarily halted, although the office building is nearly 13km from the terminal.
The drone strikes have clearly been a tactical success. Rising fuel prices, up 40 per cent for wholesale since January, and long fuel queues, might combine with the futility of the campaign, and economic problems such as high inflation, to stoke public discontent.
But it will take a lot more for them to damage the Russian economy seriously, change the political calculus or undermine Moscow’s military effort. Ukraine also receives significant amounts of its diesel from refineries in Hungary and Slovakia served by the Druzhba line. Its drones will no doubt continue to improve, but Russia may devise effective countermeasures, or shift refining to more distant sites in its vast expanse. Finally, as shown on Friday, Russia will retaliate less discriminately against Ukrainian energy sites.
Still, Houthi fighters in Yemen have shown how effective quite simple weapons can be in halting maritime passage. The US is now considering providing long-range Tomahawk missiles, which have the range to hit Moscow and a much larger warhead than Ukrainian drones. Kyiv in August began using a similar domestically-made model, named Flamingo.
If Kyiv’s situation grows more urgent, or if western support falters, it could strike more aggressively against pipelines, ports such as Novorossiysk, or even shipping. The Black Sea carries about 1.8 million barrels per day, a third of oil exports from western Russia, the Baltic accounting for nearly all the rest.
If falling exports combine with a sharp drop in oil prices as the rest of the Opec+ group increases production, Moscow’s economy would bleed. Ukraine’s unmanned birds may have found a Russian Achilles heel.
Brief scores:
Kashima Antlers 0
River Plate 4
Zuculini 24', Martinez 73', 90 2', Borre 89' (pen)
Result:
1. Cecilie Hatteland (NOR) atop Alex - 31.46 seconds
2. Anna Gorbacheva (RUS) atop Curt 13 - 31.82 seconds
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) atop Cash Up - 32.81 seconds
4. Sheikha Latifa bint Ahmed Al Maktoum (UAE) atop Peanuts de Beaufour - 35.85 seconds
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) atop Benur du Romet - 37.53 seconds
6. Annika Sande (NOR) atop For Cash 2 - 31.42 seconds (4 penalties)
Overview
What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.
When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.
Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.
Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.
Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.
Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners
Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
Match info
Deccan Gladiators 87-8
Asif Khan 25, Dwayne Bravo 2-16
Maratha Arabians 89-2
Chadwick Walton 51 not out
Arabians won the final by eight wickets
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place playoff
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
match info
Manchester United 3 (Martial 7', 44', 74')
Sheffield United 0
La Mer lowdown
La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
THE%20SWIMMERS
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The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday Valladolid v Osasuna (Kick-off midnight UAE)
Saturday Valencia v Athletic Bilbao (5pm), Getafe v Sevilla (7.15pm), Huesca v Alaves (9.30pm), Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (midnight)
Sunday Real Sociedad v Eibar (5pm), Real Betis v Villarreal (7.15pm), Elche v Granada (9.30pm), Barcelona v Levante (midnight)
Monday Celta Vigo v Cadiz (midnight)
Director: Romany Saad
Starring: Mirfat Amin, Boumi Fouad and Tariq Al Ibyari
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Petrarch: Everywhere a Wanderer
Christopher Celenza,
Reaktion Books
Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021
Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.
Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.
Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.
Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.
Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.
Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.
Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”
Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI.
