There is a mystery at the heart of the global oil market. China has soaked up a torrent of oil imports this year, filling tanks and underground caverns. Without this, prices would be much lower. But why is Beijing snapping up oil it doesn’t obviously need? How much is it going to keep buying? And for how long?
The first part of the puzzle is exactly how much crude the Middle Kingdom has absorbed. It does not release figures for storage capacity or volumes, so they have to be estimated. Its aboveground tanks can be assessed by satellite, but a growing portion of its capacity is now below-ground. The amount going into storage can be approximated by looking at the difference between the sum of imports and domestic production on the one hand, and the amount refined on the other.
All of these figures have uncertainties, relating for instance to how much crude comes by pipeline from Russia, versus tanker deliveries which can be easily monitored. The quantity processed in small refineries and petrochemical plants is particularly unclear.
Overall, China seems to have built stocks this year to August at a rate of at least 500,000 barrels per day. It may have anywhere from 800 million to 1,400 million barrels in storage – a wide margin of doubt. That is equivalent to about 73 to 127 days of oil imports. The country is not part of the western-dominated International Energy Agency but, for comparison, the IEA requires its members to hold oil inventories of at least 90 days of net imports, as a cushion against disruptions.
Official media indicates that state stocks should rise to more than 1 billion barrels. Other comments suggest there may be an aim to build up to 2 billion barrels. There is plenty of room to keep filling: state-owned oil major Sinopec did let slip recently that Chinese storage was about 70 per cent occupied.
And China keeps boosting its capacity. State companies will add at least 169 million barrels across 11 sites during this year and next. Other projects, including by smaller or private companies, would swell this total further. Over the past five years, about 180-190 million barrels of capacity was built, so the pace is actually accelerating.
The effect has been profound. Opec+ output has risen by about 1.2 million barrels per day from January to August. On average, therefore, China’s inventories have soaked up nearly all the extra production. This will become harder, of course, as the oil exporters’ group has continued to add barrels from September. But certainly Chinese tanks have been vital in avoiding a sharper decline in prices.
Russell Hardy, chief executive of trading giant Vitol, observed that, despite the Opec+ boost, stocks in OECD countries have not risen. In fact, they remain well below the five-year average. The increase in global inventories is mostly accounted for by China, and by “oil on water”. This comprises crude en route in tankers, which has swelled because of sanctions on Russia and Iran, and longer voyages to avoid attacks in the Red Sea.
The size, pace and acceleration of China’s stock-builds is puzzling. Its overall oil consumption is expected to peak around 2027, as its economy matures, and it rapidly switches over to electric vehicles. It may soon be left with tankage well in excess of likely needs.
So why is China doing this? There are four levels of theory, which are not mutually exclusive.
First is the simple commercial explanation. Oil prices are well below the long-run historic average. With oil, as with other commodities, Chinese companies buy when they feel it is cheap. Especially, it makes sense to snap up as much discounted Iranian and Russian crude as possible while available.
This view has some merit. Longer-dated oil prices are in moderate contango – prices for delivery in months after April are higher than prompt prices. But the spread is not enough to cover storage costs and interest charges, making this an unprofitable trade on its own.
The extra expenditure is cheap for an economy the scale of China’s – on the order of $10 billion for this year’s purchases. However, if Beijing had not been buying so aggressively, prices would be a few dollars per barrel lower, saving it perhaps another $10 billion across all its imports. That assumes, of course, that Opec+ would still have made its bumper production increases.
The second explanation is risk mitigation. Beijing is concerned about threats from tighter US sanctions on Moscow and Tehran, and further trade restrictions. Strategic stocks are a cheap insurance policy. Storing dollar-denominated oil at home is better than making its trade surplus hostage to the US Treasury.
A third line of thought is that this is explicitly preparation for eventual conflict against the US: a war or at least embargo in which supplies from the Gulf and through the narrow Strait of Malacca would be cut off. This is a very real vulnerability, as the case of Japan in the Second World War illustrates. Maximum vulnerability is temporary, as China electrifies, but even a country driving entirely in BYDs will need petroleum for fighter jets and warships.
The fourth explanation is the most serious. Speaking at the DMCC Energy Club seminar in Dubai on Thursday, Li-Chen Sim of Khalifa University noted the “conspiracy theory” that China could be girding its loins for war against Taiwan imminently. Russia’s preparations in 2021 before its invasion of Ukraine, its throttling of natural gas supplies to Europe, were misread or ignored by many. But an invasion of the island very soon appears unlikely.
So where does Beijing lead the oil market next? Its strategic goals imply that purchases will be at least 500,000 barrels per day over the next three years, continuing to support prices but not adding extra tension. At the more aggressive end, it might buy around 900,000 barrels per day, very helpful for the aims of Opec+ to boost output without hurting prices too much.
Virtually all forecasts point to a significant surplus next year, even with this stockpiling. If a deficit or a supply shock does nevertheless materialise during the next three years, Chinese stocks would be crucial in easing a price spike. Beijing’s exact mix of motivations may remain enigmatic, but oil exporters will not complain.
THE CARD
2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m
3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m
3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m
4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m
4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
%3Cp%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%201.9km%20King%20Salman%20Boulevard%2C%20a%20Parisian%20Champs-Elysees-inspired%20avenue%2C%20is%20scheduled%20for%20completion%20in%202028%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20Royal%20Diriyah%20Opera%20House%20is%20expected%20to%20be%20completed%20in%20four%20years%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%20first%20of%2042%20hotels%2C%20the%20Bab%20Samhan%20hotel%2C%20will%20open%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20On%20completion%20in%202030%2C%20the%20Diriyah%20project%20is%20forecast%20to%20accommodate%20more%20than%20100%2C000%20people%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20%2463.2%20billion%20Diriyah%20project%20will%20contribute%20%247.2%20billion%20to%20the%20kingdom%E2%80%99s%20GDP%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20It%20will%20create%20more%20than%20178%2C000%20jobs%20and%20aims%20to%20attract%20more%20than%2050%20million%20visits%20a%20year%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20About%202%2C000%20people%20work%20for%20the%20Diriyah%20Company%2C%20with%20more%20than%2086%20per%20cent%20being%20Saudi%20citizens%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20has%20been%20moored%20off%20the%20Yemeni%20coast%20of%20Ras%20Issa%20since%201988.%3Cbr%3EThe%20Houthis%20have%20been%20blockading%20UN%20efforts%20to%20inspect%20and%20maintain%20the%20vessel%20since%202015%2C%20when%20the%20war%20between%20the%20group%20and%20the%20Yemen%20government%2C%20backed%20by%20the%20Saudi-led%20coalition%20began.%3Cbr%3ESince%20then%2C%20a%20handful%20of%20people%20acting%20as%20a%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.ae%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%26esrc%3Ds%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D%26ved%3D2ahUKEwiw2OfUuKr4AhVBuKQKHTTzB7cQFnoECB4QAQ%26url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.thenationalnews.com%252Fworld%252Fmena%252Fyemen-s-floating-bomb-tanker-millions-kept-safe-by-skeleton-crew-1.1104713%26usg%3DAOvVaw0t9FPiRsx7zK7aEYgc65Ad%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3Eskeleton%20crew%3C%2Fa%3E%2C%20have%20performed%20rudimentary%20maintenance%20work%20to%20keep%20the%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20intact.%3Cbr%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20is%20connected%20to%20a%20pipeline%20from%20the%20oil-rich%20city%20of%20Marib%2C%20and%20was%20once%20a%20hub%20for%20the%20storage%20and%20export%20of%20crude%20oil.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%E2%80%99s%20environmental%20and%20humanitarian%20impact%20may%20extend%20well%20beyond%20Yemen%2C%20experts%20believe%2C%20into%20the%20surrounding%20waters%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia%2C%20Djibouti%20and%20Eritrea%2C%20impacting%20marine-life%20and%20vital%20infrastructure%20like%20desalination%20plans%20and%20fishing%20ports.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
%3Cp%3EMATA%0D%3Cbr%3EArtist%3A%20M.I.A%0D%3Cbr%3ELabel%3A%20Island%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
MADAME%20WEB
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20S.J.%20Clarkson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Dakota%20Johnson%2C%20Tahar%20Rahim%2C%20Sydney%20Sweeney%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
MATCH INFO
Qalandars 112-4 (10 ovs)
Banton 53 no
Northern Warriors 46 all out (9 ovs)
Kumara 3-10, Garton 3-10, Jordan 2-2, Prasanna 2-7
Qalandars win by six wickets
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Vikram%20Vedha
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Gayatri%2C%20Pushkar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hrithik%20Roshan%2C%20Saif%20Ali%20Khan%2C%20Radhika%20Apte%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Rooney's club record
At Everton Appearances: 77; Goals: 17
At Manchester United Appearances: 559; Goals: 253
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041mm%2C%20352%20x%20430%3B%2045mm%2C%20396%20x%20484%3B%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%20up%20to%201000%20nits%2C%20always-on%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20S8%2C%20W3%20wireless%2C%20U1%20ultra-wideband%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20watchOS%209%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203rd-gen%20heart%20rate%20sensor%2C%20temperature%20sensing%2C%20ECG%2C%20blood%20oxygen%2C%20workouts%2C%20fall%2Fcrash%20detection%3B%20emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP6X%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%2C%20dust%20resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20308mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%2C%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinishes%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aluminium%20%E2%80%93%20midnight%2C%20Product%20Red%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3B%20stainless%20steel%20%E2%80%93%20gold%2C%20graphite%2C%20silver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Watch%20Series%208%2C%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starts%20at%20Dh1%2C599%20(41mm)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C999%20(45mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Under 19 Cricket World Cup, Asia Qualifier
Fixtures
Friday, April 12, Malaysia v UAE
Saturday, April 13, UAE v Nepal
Monday, April 15, UAE v Kuwait
Tuesday, April 16, UAE v Singapore
Thursday, April 18, UAE v Oman
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Aaron Benjamin, Akasha Mohammed, Alishan Sharafu, Anand Kumar, Ansh Tandon, Ashwanth Valthapa, Karthik Meiyappan, Mohammed Faraazuddin, Rishab Mukherjee, Niel Lobo, Osama Hassan, Vritya Aravind, Wasi Shah
EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEdinburgh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%204%20%3Cem%3E(unchanged)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBahrain%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%2015%20%3Cem%3E(from%20September%2015)%3C%2Fem%3E%3B%20second%20daily%20service%20from%20January%201%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKuwait%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%2015%20%3Cem%3E(from%20September%2016)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMumbai%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20October%2027)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAhmedabad%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20October%2027)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColombo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202%20%3Cem%3E(from%20January%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMuscat%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cem%3E%20%3C%2Fem%3EMarch%201%3Cem%3E%20(from%20December%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELyon%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20March%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20December%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBologna%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20March%201%20%3Cem%3E(from%20December%201)%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Emirates%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
THE SPECS
Aston Martin Rapide AMR
Engine: 6.0-litre V12
Transmission: Touchtronic III eight-speed automatic
Power: 595bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh999,563
Panipat
Director Ashutosh Gowariker
Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment
Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman
Rating 3 /5 stars
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Genesis G80 2020 5.0-litre Royal Specs
Engine: 5-litre V8
Gearbox: eight-speed automatic
Power: 420hp
Torque: 505Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.4L/100km
Price: Dh260,500
Duminy's Test career in numbers
Tests 46; Runs 2,103; Best 166; Average 32.85; 100s 6; 50s 8; Wickets 42; Best 4-47
%E2%80%98White%20Elephant%E2%80%99
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jesse%20V%20Johnson%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Rooker%2C%20Bruce%20Willis%2C%20John%20Malkovich%2C%20Olga%20Kurylenko%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
