Brent crude could average $50 per barrel in 2021 on the back of a faster-than-expected demand recovery in sectors such as transportation as well as strong supply cuts from Opec, according to the Bank of America. The lender revised its estimate for the world’s most widely-traded crude benchmark upwards by $7.
Brent is expected to average $43.70 per barrel this year, an increase on its earlier estimate of $37 per barrel as many countries lift movement restrictions that were put in place to limit the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
"Global oil market fundamentals have shifted significantly since we last adjusted our oil price forecasts on March 8, the bank said in a note on Sunday.
"As we head into next year, mobility demand could recover at a faster rate than we initially anticipated. Also, Opec+ will likely hold back larger supply volumes than we pencilled in three months ago,” the lender added. The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is cutting back 9.7 million barrels per day until July, with tapered cuts in place until 2022.
A tighter scenario for oil supply and demand also means an improved outlook for West Texas Intermediate, the key US gauge. BofA revised its forecast for WTI up to $47 per barrel for 2021 and $50 per barrel in 2022. The bank based its assumptions on the return of US shale output to the market in the second half of 2021.
The recent rally in oil prices over the past few weeks tailed off at the end of last week as Covid-19 cases surged globally leading to concerns about the possibility of a second wave of the pandemic.
Brent ended the week down marginally at $41.02 on Friday, while WTI fell 0.6 per cent, settling at $38.49 per barrel.
"The rally in oil prices has started to stall as an acceleration in the number of Covid-19 cases globally threatens the viability of demand recovery,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD.
"The reopening of several major US states has been put on hold as Covid-19 cases are increasing and in some instances posting record single-day numbers,” he added.
Global cases of the novel coronavirus passed the 10 million mark on Sunday. Many US states such as Florida posted their highest daily counts last week, while states such as Texas reimposed lockdowns after a surge in new infections.
Markets worry about the US undergoing another "extensive lockdown", Emirates NBD said in its latest note.
If that were to take place, a repeat of April’s demand slump is likely to follow with a new collapse in jet fuel demand as well as a steep drop in gasoline consumption.
"However, we doubt state governments would be ready to order as severe a shutdown of their local economies only a few weeks into reopening, despite the risks to public health," it added.
RESULTS
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner: Najem Al Rwasi, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Fandim, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Harbh, Pat Cosgrave, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham
4pm: Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jawaal, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
4.30pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Cup (TB) Dh200,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Results:
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,400m.
Winner: Walking Thunder, Connor Beasley (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap (rated 72-87) Dh 165,000 1,600m.
Winner: Syncopation, George Buckell, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,400m.
Winner: Big Brown Bear, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap (75-95) Dh 190,000 1,200m.
Winner: Stunned, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Handicap (85-105) Dh 210,000 2,000m.
Winner: New Trails, Connor Beasley, Ahmad bin Harmash.
9.25pm: Handicap (75-95) Dh 190,000 1,600m.
Winner: Pillar Of Society, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
Teaching in coronavirus times
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Mobile phone packages comparison
About RuPay
A homegrown card payment scheme launched by the National Payments Corporation of India and backed by the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank
RuPay process payments between banks and merchants for purchases made with credit or debit cards
It has grown rapidly in India and competes with global payment network firms like MasterCard and Visa.
In India, it can be used at ATMs, for online payments and variations of the card can be used to pay for bus, metro charges, road toll payments
The name blends two words rupee and payment
Some advantages of the network include lower processing fees and transaction costs
more from Janine di Giovanni
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
MATCH INFO
Bayern Munich 2 Borussia Monchengladbach 1
Bayern: Zirkzee (26'), Goretzka (86')
Gladbach: Pavard (37' og)
Man of the Match: Breel Embolo (Borussia Monchengladbach)
Five hymns the crowds can join in
Papal Mass will begin at 10.30am at the Zayed Sports City Stadium on Tuesday
Some 17 hymns will be sung by a 120-strong UAE choir
Five hymns will be rehearsed with crowds on Tuesday morning before the Pope arrives at stadium
‘Christ be our Light’ as the entrance song
‘All that I am’ for the offertory or during the symbolic offering of gifts at the altar
‘Make me a Channel of your Peace’ and ‘Soul of my Saviour’ for the communion
‘Tell out my Soul’ as the final hymn after the blessings from the Pope
The choir will also sing the hymn ‘Legions of Heaven’ in Arabic as ‘Assakiroo Sama’
There are 15 Arabic speakers from Syria, Lebanon and Jordan in the choir that comprises residents from the Philippines, India, France, Italy, America, Netherlands, Armenia and Indonesia
The choir will be accompanied by a brass ensemble and an organ
They will practice for the first time at the stadium on the eve of the public mass on Monday evening
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre, 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: CVT
Power: 170bhp
Torque: 220Nm
Price: Dh98,900
