The rising number of coronavirus infections are sparking concern over a potential slowdown in global demand growth for oil in the second half of 2020, as countries consider reimposing strict measures to contain a potential second wave of the pandemic.
Oil demand growth has slumped this year due to strict mobility measures in place across the world but measures taken by Opec and its allies to restrict supply shored up prices. Brent was down 0.57 per cent at $45.20 per barrel at 7.39am UAE time, while WTI was down 0.40 per cent at $42.72 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency last week cut demand growth projections for the first time in many months by 140,000 barrels per day, while Opec pared its forecast by 100,000 bpd.
“Demand recovery, especially for the second half of this year will be slower than the first half of this year,” said Zhuwei Wang, lead analyst, Middle East commodity analytics at S&P Global Platts.
He cited the potential for a second outbreak of the virus as a looming concern for oil markets. The coronavirus has infected more than 22 million people as of Tuesday, according to Worldometer, which tracks the pandemic. Around 778,102 have succumbed to the disease so far. Countries that contribute to significantly driving demand growth for oil, such as the US, Brazil, India, Russia and South Africa, have the highest number of infections globally.
Platts Analytics estimates that oil demand will decline by 8.2 million bpd year-on-year in 2020, but will increase again by 6.7m bpd in 2021.
“In 2021 even if we are seeing some kind of demand recovery, the absolute will still be 1.5m bpd lower than 2019,” said Mr Wang.
In comparison, the IEA has forecast an 8.1m bpd slide in demand for 2020, while Opec expects oil demand to grow by 7m bpd in 2021.
Oil demand growth is expected to remain tepid long-term once the pandemic’s impact on education and the future workforce is also considered.
“In the mid-term maybe ... 400 million [fewer] people will enter into the middle class in the next 10 to 20 years and that actually will be translated into a huge amount of demand losses,” Mr Wang said.
"Covid-19 will lead to a lot of young people dropping out of school, [resulting in a] labour force with potential lower wages, leading to lower disposable income and that will all translate into lower demand growth,” he added.
In June, the World Bank estimated a 5.2 per cent contraction in global gross domestic product for 2020 as the pandemic triggers the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie also maintains a pessimistic view of oil demand recovery in the near term, citing the continued impact of Covid-19.
“Our H1 2020 outlook anticipates an oil price rebound as demand starts rising post-coronavirus. However, a second large-scale lockdown [across major economies] would deepen the recession, and possibly delay any rebound in GDP until 2022. This would have a significant impact on the oil and gas sectors,” said Dulles Wang, director, Americas gas research at Wood Mackenzie.
The consultancy sees Brent rising to $86 per barrel by 2030 in its base scenario. However, in the event of a second wave, resulting in widespread movement restrictions, the international benchmark is forecast to fall to $70 per barrel over the same period.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, Opec+ producers are continuing to cut back production, albeit in a tapered manner. The group, which is currently slashing 7.7m bpd, is convening its joint ministerial monitoring committee on Wednesday.
The group will "reiterate the strong compliance level” but maintain focus on elevating the level of conformity in an environment where oil demand remains fragile, said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS.
Opec+ which has Saudi Arabia and Russia at the helm, will receive plans from Iraq, Angola, Kazakhstan and Nigeria on implementing compensatory cuts to make up for their lack of compliance in the second quarter.
UBS expects the markets to be undersupplied for the rest of the year, with Brent reaching $55 per barrel in the first half of 2021. Supply from the US shale basins, however, is unlikely to recover until West Texas Intermediate climbs above the $50 per barrel mark, Mr Staunovo said.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
ZAYED SUSTAINABILITY PRIZE
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
THE BIG MATCH
Arsenal v Manchester City,
Sunday, Emirates Stadium, 6.30pm
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
ARSENAL IN 1977
Feb 05 Arsenal 0-0 Sunderland
Feb 12 Manchester City 1-0 Arsenal
Feb 15 Middlesbrough 3-0 Arsenal
Feb 19 Arsenal 2-3 West Ham
Feb 26 Middlesbrough 4-1 Arsenal (FA Cup)
Mar 01 Everton 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 05 Arsenal 1-4 ipswich
March 08 Arsenal 1-2 West Brom
Mar 12 QPR 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 23 Stoke 1-1 Arsenal
Apr 02 Arsenal 3-0 Leicester
Basquiat in Abu Dhabi
One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier.
It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.
“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October
In 2018, the ICRC received 27,756 trace requests in the Middle East alone. The global total was 45,507.
There are 139,018 global trace requests that have not been resolved yet, 55,672 of these are in the Middle East region.
More than 540,000 individuals approached the ICRC in the Middle East asking to be reunited with missing loved ones in 2018.
The total figure for the entire world was 654,000 in 2018.
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYasmin%20Azad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESwift%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
No more lice
Defining head lice
Pediculus humanus capitis are tiny wingless insects that feed on blood from the human scalp. The adult head louse is up to 3mm long, has six legs, and is tan to greyish-white in colour. The female lives up to four weeks and, once mature, can lay up to 10 eggs per day. These tiny nits firmly attach to the base of the hair shaft, get incubated by body heat and hatch in eight days or so.
Identifying lice
Lice can be identified by itching or a tickling sensation of something moving within the hair. One can confirm that a person has lice by looking closely through the hair and scalp for nits, nymphs or lice. Head lice are most frequently located behind the ears and near the neckline.
Treating lice at home
Head lice must be treated as soon as they are spotted. Start by checking everyone in the family for them, then follow these steps. Remove and wash all clothing and bedding with hot water. Apply medicine according to the label instructions. If some live lice are still found eight to 12 hours after treatment, but are moving more slowly than before, do not re-treat. Comb dead and remaining live lice out of the hair using a fine-toothed comb.
After the initial treatment, check for, comb and remove nits and lice from hair every two to three days. Soak combs and brushes in hot water for 10 minutes.Vacuum the floor and furniture, particularly where the infested person sat or lay.
Courtesy Dr Vishal Rajmal Mehta, specialist paediatrics, RAK Hospital
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Grubtech
Founders: Mohamed Al Fayed and Mohammed Hammedi
Launched: October 2019
Employees: 50
Financing stage: Seed round (raised $2 million)
