Zoltan Gorog is ready for the Russian invasion; the real estate agent in the Hungarian town of Paks has added Cyrillic to the blue and white sign hanging above his offices.
He’s set up empty desks for when he needs to expand to cope with the surge in business.
Rather than a flood of people, though, there’s barely a trickle. Five years after Hungary’s government signed an agreement with Russian nuclear energy company Rosatom to build two new reactors at the aging plant near the town, there’s still no start date for the bulk of the work.
“We had to realise it’s not as simple to construct a nuclear plant as, say, a car plant,” said Mr Gorog, who plans to be the go-to guy for settling the engineers, metal workers, electricians and physicists needed to complete the job. “It’s hard to imagine the changes ahead,” he said, as he opened his laptop to show off available apartments – unaffordable for most locals, but fitted out to accommodate richer Russian guests.
While wealthier countries such as Germany and France baulk at adding facilities because of the cost and environmental risks, in former communist Europe the problem is that enthusiasm for nuclear isn’t matched by the ability to make projects happen. Across the region, where the Soviet Union fitted out most of the reactors still in use today, authorities are squeezed by time and money.
Plants near the end of their operating lives, increasing demand for energy and deadlines for cutting carbon emissions are spurring governments to seek to add capacity. Along with Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovenia are looking to expand or refurbish facilities. Bulgaria and Poland want to build new plants.
But plans are often stymied by soaring construction costs and the complexity of design requirements for European Union members, making most planned projects from the region at least a decade away from completion. With new reactors often costing anything up to €15 billion (Dh61.41bn) to build, governments may find themselves hard-pressed to push on.
“In terms of costs, it’s not a winning technology right now, and the odds are it probably never will be,” said Rob Barnett, a senior energy policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence in London. “It’s ultimately a question whether governments want the technology to exist and are they willing to subsidise the costs in order to have it as power generation technology.”
The furthest along is Slovakia, which may connect a new reactor to its grid by next year, though even there the process has been fraught with delays, opposition by neighbouring Austria, a spat over financing and accusations of mismanagement.
A more typical example is Bulgaria, which has so far been unsuccessful in finding the cash to build a second plant in the northern town of Belene. The plan was first shelved after communism fell and would cost the state almost a quarter of its economic output to complete. Poland, Europe’s biggest consumer of coal for power, is looking to start its first-ever reactor in 2033, though it lacks government approval for the funding.
Even the plans that look the most solid have suffered delays. Romania, which debated for a decade whether to add new reactors to its Cernavoda plant near the Black Sea, signed a preliminary deal in May with China General Nuclear Power. Still, there's no agreement on the financing or a timeline.
Hungary does have most of the money lined up for its €12.5bn contract for the Paks project it signed in January 2014, a deal that reflected the cosy relationship between Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia is financing 80 per cent of it via a €10bn loan to Hungary that must be repaid along with interest.
That still hasn’t been enough to get the project going. It took almost two years to obtain the EU’s seal of approval and another two years have passed since then. The government in Budapest indirectly blames Rosatom for failing to file the required plans. With the only certainty being that the new reactors won’t start producing electricity in 2026, as originally scheduled, the cabinet is in talks with Moscow on delaying the loan repayment until after the new capacity goes online.
Rosatom’s chief executive, Alexey Likhachev, blamed the EU and said work would continue through the summer. “The project had delays because of the procedures in the European Union,” he said in June.
“We are now adjusting the timing. We are not dragging out the work. We have already contracted most of the heavy equipment and are actively contracting Hungarian companies now to build the construction and installation base.”
Building out nuclear power facilities is the most expensive option because of the layers of safety that are continually being factored into the process. The three most notable nuclear accidents – Three-Mile Island in the US, Chernobyl in Ukraine, and Fukushima in Japan – helped strengthen the science and technology behind nuclear.
At Paks, just over 100 kilometres down the Danube river from Budapest, only 300 of 6,000 permits have been approved.
“One of the lessons of Chernobyl is that it is very important to deal with nuclear safety questions transparently,” said Balthasar Lindauer, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s director of nuclear safety. “It’s impressive when you go and see the magnitude the problem created there.”
Whatever the risks, nuclear power is supported among general populations, especially in towns closest to the operations, where facilities are the main sources of income.
When the first reactors at Hungary’s Paks plant were being built prior to starting up in 1982, the small town was transformed. A cultural centre and theatre were built and workers and locals mingled and sometimes got married, said Judit Kunfalvi, 60, a jewellery store owner who is looking forward to catering to the Russians who may eventually come.
This time around, residents estimate as many as 10,000 workers and their families will flood in once the project gets going properly. Mr Gorog is not the only local gearing up to cater to the Russians. On the riverbank, Paks’ most popular restaurant, the Halaszcsarda fish tavern, has added Russian to the menu and has already won some customers from the initial Rosatom workforce.
“It gives a chance for the town to develop,” said owner Kunfalvi, standing behind a glass counter that covers an array of broaches and earrings and stretches across most of the 40-square-metre store on the tiny main street.
“There’s a lot of hard work around the project.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Bridgerton%20season%20three%20-%20part%20one
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Indika
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2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Sub Regional Qualifier
Event info: The tournament in Kuwait this month is the first phase of the qualifying process for sides from Asia for the 2020 World T20 in Australia. The UAE must finish within the top three teams out of the six at the competition to advance to the Asia regional finals. Success at regional finals would mean progression to the World T20 Qualifier.
UAE’s fixtures: Fri Apr 20, UAE v Qatar; Sat Apr 21, UAE v Saudi Arabia; Mon Apr 23, UAE v Bahrain; Tue Apr 24, UAE v Maldives; Thu Apr 26, UAE v Kuwait
World T20 2020 Qualifying process:
- Sixteen teams will play at the World T20 in two years’ time.
- Australia have already qualified as hosts
- Nine places are available to the top nine ranked sides in the ICC’s T20i standings, not including Australia, on Dec 31, 2018.
- The final six teams will be decided by a 14-team World T20 Qualifier.
World T20 standings: 1 Pakistan; 2 Australia; 3 India; 4 New Zealand; 5 England; 6 South Africa; 7 West Indies; 8 Sri Lanka; 9 Afghanistan; 10 Bangladesh; 11 Scotland; 12 Zimbabwe; 13 UAE; 14 Netherlands; 15 Hong Kong; 16 Papua New Guinea; 17 Oman; 18 Ireland
MATCH INFO
English Premiership semi-finals
Saracens 57
Wasps 33
Exeter Chiefs 36
Newcastle Falcons 5
Scores
Oman 109-3 in 18.4 overs (Aqib Ilyas 45 not out, Aamir Kaleem 27) beat UAE 108-9 in 20 overs (Usman 27, Mustafa 24, Fayyaz 3-16, Bilal 3-23)
The specs: 2018 Bentley Bentayga V8
Price, base: Dh853,226
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 550hp @ 6,000pm
Torque: 770Nm @ 1,960rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.4L / 100km
Predictions
Predicted winners for final round of games before play-offs:
- Friday: Delhi v Chennai - Chennai
- Saturday: Rajasthan v Bangalore - Bangalore
- Saturday: Hyderabad v Kolkata - Hyderabad
- Sunday: Delhi v Mumbai - Mumbai
- Sunday - Chennai v Punjab - Chennai
Final top-four (who will make play-offs): Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Bangalore
Iftar programme at the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding
Established in 1998, the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding was created with a vision to teach residents about the traditions and customs of the UAE. Its motto is ‘open doors, open minds’. All year-round, visitors can sign up for a traditional Emirati breakfast, lunch or dinner meal, as well as a range of walking tours, including ones to sites such as the Jumeirah Mosque or Al Fahidi Historical Neighbourhood.
Every year during Ramadan, an iftar programme is rolled out. This allows guests to break their fast with the centre’s presenters, visit a nearby mosque and observe their guides while they pray. These events last for about two hours and are open to the public, or can be booked for a private event.
Until the end of Ramadan, the iftar events take place from 7pm until 9pm, from Saturday to Thursday. Advanced booking is required.
For more details, email openminds@cultures.ae or visit www.cultures.ae
SPECS
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If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
