There is an old financial market axiom: "reverse the trend over a long weekend." Basically, as traders take a break from markets, they can sometimes square up their positions and come back to work with a clean trading sheet and often a fresh eye. In other words, it provides a useful safety valve so that investments that have become stale are despatched with little emotion, and the dealer can reappraise where the best opportunities lie.
The sort of extended holiday that many of us enjoyed over the past month or two is normally a particularly strong example of this phenomenon, with trading conditions quiet and market moves minimal at best.
So while last month the talk was of unending quantitative easing, the threat of sovereign debt default contagion in Europe and the lack of faith in governments, the focus has shifted this month, and with it a rather more positive view of events. Whether this survives the harsh reality of market moves has yet to be seen, but currently the attention is on rising interest rates in Asia, positive reaction to the bond auctions of some peripheral European countries, and the move to expand the scope and capacity of the European Financial Stabilisation Fund.
This bout of optimism has prompted some to question the need for retaining an investment in gold, as they would argue that much of the rationale for their original transaction has disappeared.
Depression and hyper-inflation have been avoided, central banks are moving to take control of economies again and the threat of sovereign default, and perhaps most dramatically, even the disappearance of the euro, are no longer considered possible. Hence gold's retreat from its recent all-time highs.
However, this reappraisal of gold's value has been confined to those players who are nimble enough to take advantage of rapid changes in markets, rather than those who are seeking to make a longer-term allocation to the precious metal as part of portfolio diversification.
For the latter group, a break from work would not be considered sufficient to simply switch away from gold. Instead, the investment is considered against multi-year factors. Additionally, gold's attractiveness within a range of investments and its qualities as a hedge against financial dislocation are not in doubt.
Nonetheless, with short-term issues in the ascendant, this could result in gold underperforming in the next few weeks as the market switches from nearby concerns to a longer-term outlook and reduces its exposure. To an extent, this is already happening, with gold struggling against both the US dollar and the euro in the first few days of this year.
But this has been a gradual retracement, and any liquidation from short-term interests has been masked by good physical demand out of Asia, where stocking up is taking place throughout the region in advance of the lunar new year celebrations.
So after plumbing, at the time, 19-year lows in 1999 when gold struggled to stay above US$250, is the story now all over? Has it had its time back in the sun and is it now ready to retreat back to relative obscurity? I have been somewhat strident in my views that the rationale behind the 10-year rally in gold prices was a function of a general unease over the state of financial markets, concern that monetary authorities were merely reacting to events in the global economy rather than controlling them, and a feeling that the wholesale retreat from gold as an acceptable asset, during the 1990s, was overdone.
Even if this bout of optimism for markets persists this year, it is the realisation that gold has been a financial asset for thousands of years that will persist - and that the 1980s and 1990s were the aberration.
Hence, investors will continue to accumulate gold. In such a small market as that for precious metals, even small reallocations of funds can have significant impacts. All the gold that has been mined in world history still constitutes less than 5 per cent of global wealth.
Therefore, despite my concerns over the immediate direction of gold prices, I continue to believe that much of the same rationale that has been driving prices will persist. While some of the motivation behind gold investments may shift over the coming 12 months, the overall result will continue to be much the same, with prices rising still further.
*Jonathan Spall is the director of commodities distribution at Barclays Capital in London, and the author of How to Profit in Gold
EDITOR'S PICK: Internet speeds to increase as du eyes 4G partner.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Company profile
Name: Tratok Portal
Founded: 2017
Based: UAE
Sector: Travel & tourism
Size: 36 employees
Funding: Privately funded
New Zealand squad
Tim Southee (capt), Trent Boult (games 4 and 5), Colin de Grandhomme, Lockie Ferguson (games 1-3), Martin Guptill, Scott Kuggeleijn, Daryl Mitchell, Colin Munro, Jimmy Neesham, Mitchell Santner, Tim Seifert, Ish Sodhi, Ross Taylor, Blair Tickner
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
MATCH INFO
Watford 2 (Sarr 50', Deeney 54' pen)
Manchester United 0
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Director: Peyton Reed
Starring: Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Michael Douglas
Three stars
Nancy 9 (Hassa Beek)
Nancy Ajram
(In2Musica)
The Transfiguration
Director: Michael O’Shea
Starring: Eric Ruffin, Chloe Levine
Three stars
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
Huroob Ezterari
Director: Ahmed Moussa
Starring: Ahmed El Sakka, Amir Karara, Ghada Adel and Moustafa Mohammed
Three stars
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE SPECS
Engine: AMG-enhanced 3.0L inline-6 turbo with EQ Boost and electric auxiliary compressor
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 429hp
Torque: 520Nm
Price: Dh360,200 (starting)
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Shahi
Emirate: Sharjah – Khor Fakkan
Education: Master’s degree in special education, preparing for a PhD in philosophy.
Favourite activities: Bungee jumping
Favourite quote: “My people and I will not settle for anything less than first place” – Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid.
The specs: 2017 Maserati Quattroporte
Price, base / as tested Dh389,000 / Dh559,000
Engine 3.0L twin-turbo V8
Transmission Eight-speed automatic
Power 530hp @ 6,800rpm
Torque 650Nm @ 2,000 rpm
Fuel economy, combined 10.7L / 100km
Korean Film Festival 2019 line-up
Innocent Witness, June 26 at 7pm
On Your Wedding Day, June 27 at 7pm
The Great Battle, June 27 at 9pm
The Witch: Part 1. The Subversion, June 28 at 4pm
Romang, June 28 at 6pm
Mal Mo E: The Secret Mission, June 28 at 8pm
Underdog, June 29 at 2pm
Nearby Sky, June 29 at 4pm
A Resistance, June 29 at 6pm
FIXTURES
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT)
Tuesday
Mairobr v Liverpool
Spartak Moscow v Sevilla
Feyenoord v Shakhtar Donetsk
Manchester City v Napoli
Monaco v Besiktas
RB Leipzig v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid v Tottenham Hotspur
Wednesday
Benfica v Manchester United
CSKA Moscow v Basel
Bayern Munich v Celtic
Anderlecht v Paris Saint-Germain
Qarabag v Atletico Madrid
Chelsea v Roma
Barcelona v Olympiakos
Juventus v Sporting Lisbon
The%20specs
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Racecard
2pm Handicap Dh 90,000 1,800m
2.30pm Handicap Dh120,000 1,950m
3pm Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
3.30pm Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m
4pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
4.30pm Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m
5pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
5.30pm Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m
The National selections:
2pm Arch Gold
2.30pm Conclusion
3pm Al Battar
3.30pm Golden Jaguar
4pm Al Motayar
4.30pm Tapi Sioux
5pm Leadership
5.30pm Dahawi
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
New Zealand 57-0 South Africa
Tries: Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder (2), Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Ofa Tu'ungfasi, Lima Sopoaga, Codie Taylor. Conversions: Beauden Barrett (7). Penalty: Beauden Barrett
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
The flights
Emirates (www.emirates.com) and Etihad (www.etihad.com) both fly direct to Bengaluru, with return fares from Dh 1240. From Bengaluru airport, Coorg is a five-hour drive by car.
The hotels
The Tamara (www.thetamara.com) is located inside a working coffee plantation and offers individual villas with sprawling views of the hills (tariff from Dh1,300, including taxes and breakfast).
When to go
Coorg is an all-year destination, with the peak season for travel extending from the cooler months between October and March.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html" charset="UTF-8" /></head><body><!--PSTYLE=* Labels%3aFH Label 18 Sport--><p>Beach soccer</p><!--PSTYLE=BY Byline--><p>Amith Passela</p><p /></body></html>
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
Reputation
Taylor Swift
(Big Machine Records)
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Sub Regional Qualifier
Event info: The tournament in Kuwait is the first phase of the qualifying process for sides from Asia for the 2020 World T20 in Australia. The UAE must finish within the top three teams out of the six at the competition to advance to the Asia regional finals. Success at regional finals would mean progression to the World T20 Qualifier.
Teams: UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Maldives, Qatar
Friday fixtures: 9.30am (UAE time) - Kuwait v Maldives, Qatar v UAE; 3pm - Saudi Arabia v Bahrain
Profile of Whizkey
Date founded: 04 November 2017
Founders: Abdulaziz AlBlooshi and Harsh Hirani
Based: Dubai, UAE
Number of employees: 10
Sector: AI, software
Cashflow: Dh2.5 Million
Funding stage: Series A
Super Bowl LIII schedule
What Super Bowl LIII
Who is playing New England Patriots v Los Angeles Rams
Where Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, United States
When Sunday (start time is 3.30am on Monday UAE time)
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
