The International Energy Agency expects demand this year to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day. Azad Lashkari / Reuters
The International Energy Agency expects demand this year to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day. Azad Lashkari / Reuters
The International Energy Agency expects demand this year to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day. Azad Lashkari / Reuters
The International Energy Agency expects demand this year to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day. Azad Lashkari / Reuters

IEA says slow progress in cutting oil glut should be no surprise


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The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the slow progress in reducing the world oil glut should come as no surprise.

In its widely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog for rich countries said that oil inventories for the OECD countries rose for the first time in six months in January, the latest month available, when they were 48 million barrels higher at just over 3 billion barrels.

On the supply side, the IEA estimated that compliance by Opec with its output deal was 98 per cent last month, although that was heavily reliant on cuts by Saudi Arabia.

By comparison, there was only about 37 per cent compliance for the 11 non-Opec member countries that joined in the deal.

But it also signalled caution, noting that the output deal was always going to take time to work its way through the large and complex world oil system.

“The market needs time for the full impact of the big supply cuts under the output reduction agreements to be felt,” the IEA said. “For those looking for a rebalancing of the oil market the message is that they should be patient and hold their nerve. In the meantime, the volatility that suddenly broke out last week will probably recur.”

Oil prices have fallen by about 9 per cent in the past week, triggered by data showing rising oil inventories in the US and exacerbated by mixed signals from Saudi Arabia about its view on the market.

The kingdom’s energy ministry on Tuesday took the unusual step of issuing a statement to pledge its commitment to stabilising world oil markets, also to try to clarify confusing data about its level of output.

__________________________________

More oil coverage

Fuel for Thought blog: Saudi Arabia's communication problem

Saudi says committed to oil market stability despite production increase in February

Saudi Arabia tells Opec it raised output to 10 million bpd in February

■ Comment: I'll be back: oil's price slump is tough to kill

■ Analysis: Why mood shifted in the global oil market – and might shift again

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Earlier in the day, the Opec secretariat reported that Saudi Arabia’s output climbed 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month to just over 10 million bpd, according to Saudi Arabia’s self-reported numbers.

But the ministry’s statement later in the day said that “supply to the market” fell last month by 90,000 bpd to 9.9 million bpd, although that implied its January “supply to market” was actually significantly higher than its self-reported output of 9.75 million bpd.

The confusion underlined the problems of communication that Saudi Arabia – and Opec more broadly – has had in trying to deliver a consistent message to the market.

“It’s very difficult to read [Saudi energy minister Khalid] Al Falih compared to [his predecessor, Ali] Al Naimi,” said Jason Tuvey, Middle East economist at Capital Economics in London.

“But based on his latest comments over the last week or so, two things are clear: his opposition to extending the output deal past June has diminished; also, the stuff about not accepting free riders on the deal, obviously pointing the finger at Russia.”

The Saudi dilemma has been to try to push prices to a level that would relieve pressure on his and allies’ economies, while not allowing to run so far that it encourages competitors to move aggressively back into the market.

In any case, oil prices recovered some ground on Wednesday to stand at US$51.91 per barrel by late afternoon Arabian Gulf time, up 99 cents.

The IEA said it still expects demand this year to grow by “a healthy” 1.4 million barrels per day, although it says it has changed its quarterly forecast to reflect demand growth coming later in the year than previously expected.

“The market is still dealing with a vast amount of past supply, which will take time to work its way through the system,” the report says. “The stock build should not … be much of a surprise.”

The IEA explains that Opec countries were “increasing relentlessly” their output ahead of the deal on November 30, surging collectively by about 580,000 bpd in the three months from September. “Export volumes are still appearing in storage around the world and, as part of this, US stocks are building,” it says. “The US is seeing a triple surge in supply: rising imports (exports are also growing), rising domestic production and falling refinery utilisation.”

But the refinery maintenance there has reduced throughput by its plants from 17 million bpd to 15.5 million bpd, and once that is reversed there should be a sharp reduction in stocks, which preliminary data this week from the US Energy Information Agency supports.

amcauley@thenational.ae

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The biog

Fast facts on Neil Armstrong’s personal life:

  • Armstrong was born on August 5, 1930, in Wapakoneta, Ohio
  • He earned his private pilot’s license when he was 16 – he could fly before he could drive
  • There was tragedy in his married life: Neil and Janet Armstrong’s daughter Karen died at the age of two in 1962 after suffering a brain tumour. She was the couple’s only daughter. Their two sons, Rick and Mark, consulted on the film
  • After Armstrong departed Nasa, he bought a farm in the town of Lebanon, Ohio, in 1971 – its airstrip allowed him to tap back into his love of flying
  • In 1994, Janet divorced Neil after 38 years of marriage. Two years earlier, Neil met Carol Knight, who became his second wife in 1994 
Brief scores:

Arsenal 4

Xhaka 25', Lacazette 55', Ramsey 79', Aubameyang 83'

Fulham 1

Kamara 69'

Tamkeen's offering
  • Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
  • Option 2: 50% across three years
  • Option 3: 30% across five years 
The specs

Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8

Transmission: seven-speed

Power: 620bhp

Torque: 760Nm

Price: Dh898,000

On sale: now

The alternatives

• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.

• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.

• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.

2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.

• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases -  but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.

The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder

Transmission: CVT auto

Power: 181bhp

Torque: 244Nm

Price: Dh122,900 

Kill%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nikhil%20Nagesh%20Bhat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Lakshya%2C%20Tanya%20Maniktala%2C%20Ashish%20Vidyarthi%2C%20Harsh%20Chhaya%2C%20Raghav%20Juyal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.5%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

MATCH INFO

Chelsea 1 (Hudson-Odoi 90 1')

Manchester City 3 (Gundogan 18', Foden 21', De Bruyne 34')

Man of the match: Ilkay Gundogan (Man City)

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20Znap%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarted%3A%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFounder%3A%20Uday%20Rathod%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIndustry%3A%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%241m%2B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EInvestors%3A%20Family%2C%20friends%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai Rugby Sevens, December 5 -7

World Sevens Series Pools

A – Fiji, France, Argentina, Japan

B – United States, Australia, Scotland, Ireland

C – New Zealand, Samoa, Canada, Wales

D – South Africa, England, Spain, Kenya

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company

The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.

He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.

“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.

“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.

HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon. 

With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.

THE BIO

Ambition: To create awareness among young about people with disabilities and make the world a more inclusive place

Job Title: Human resources administrator, Expo 2020 Dubai

First jobs: Co-ordinator with Magrudy Enterprises; HR coordinator at Jumeirah Group

Entrepreneur: Started his own graphic design business

Favourite singer: Avril Lavigne

Favourite travel destination: Germany and Saudi Arabia

Family: Six sisters

Who has been sanctioned?

Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.

Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.

Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.

Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY

Starting at 10am:

Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang

Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)

Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)

Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera 

Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas

Real Madrid 1
Ronaldo (87')

Athletic Bilbao 1
Williams (14')

Grand slam winners since July 2003

Who has won major titles since Wimbledon 2003 when Roger Federer won his first grand slam

Roger Federer 19 (8 Wimbledon, 5 Australian Open, 5 US Open, 1 French Open)

Rafael Nadal 16 (10 French Open, 3 US Open, 2 Wimbledon, 1 Australian Open)

Novak Djokovic 12 (6 Australian Open, 3 Wimbledon, 2 US Open, 1 French Open)

Andy Murray 3 (2 Wimbledon, 1 US Open)

Stan Wawrinka 3 (1 Australian Open, 1 French Open, 1 US Open)

Andy Roddick 1 (1 US Open) 

Gaston Gaudio 1 (1 French Open)

Marat Safin 1 (1 Australian Open)

Juan Martin del Potro 1 (1 US Open)

Marin Cilic 1 (1 US Open)

Profile

Company: Justmop.com

Date started: December 2015

Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan

Sector: Technology and home services

Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai

Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month

Funding:  The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups. 

Saturday's results

West Ham 2-3 Tottenham
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton
Bournemouth 1-2 Wolves
Brighton 0-2 Leicester City
Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
Everton 0-2 Norwich City
Watford 0-3 Burnley

Manchester City v Chelsea, 9.30pm 

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
'The Batman'

Stars:Robert Pattinson

Director:Matt Reeves

Rating: 5/5

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

The biog

Name: Shamsa Hassan Safar

Nationality: Emirati

Education: Degree in emergency medical services at Higher Colleges of Technology

Favourite book: Between two hearts- Arabic novels

Favourite music: Mohammed Abdu and modern Arabic songs

Favourite way to spend time off: Family visits and spending time with friends

Tips for used car buyers
  • Choose cars with GCC specifications
  • Get a service history for cars less than five years old
  • Don’t go cheap on the inspection
  • Check for oil leaks
  • Do a Google search on the standard problems for your car model
  • Do your due diligence. Get a transfer of ownership done at an official RTA centre
  • Check the vehicle’s condition. You don’t want to buy a car that’s a good deal but ends up costing you Dh10,000 in repairs every month
  • Validate warranty and service contracts with the relevant agency and and make sure they are valid when ownership is transferred
  • If you are planning to sell the car soon, buy one with a good resale value. The two most popular cars in the UAE are black or white in colour and other colours are harder to sell

Tarek Kabrit, chief executive of Seez, and Imad Hammad, chief executive and co-founder of CarSwitch.com

Start-up hopes to end Japan's love affair with cash

Across most of Asia, people pay for taxi rides, restaurant meals and merchandise with smartphone-readable barcodes — except in Japan, where cash still rules. Now, as the country’s biggest web companies race to dominate the payments market, one Tokyo-based startup says it has a fighting chance to win with its QR app.

Origami had a head start when it introduced a QR-code payment service in late 2015 and has since signed up fast-food chain KFC, Tokyo’s largest cab company Nihon Kotsu and convenience store operator Lawson. The company raised $66 million in September to expand nationwide and plans to more than double its staff of about 100 employees, says founder Yoshiki Yasui.

Origami is betting that stores, which until now relied on direct mail and email newsletters, will pay for the ability to reach customers on their smartphones. For example, a hair salon using Origami’s payment app would be able to send a message to past customers with a coupon for their next haircut.

Quick Response codes, the dotted squares that can be read by smartphone cameras, were invented in the 1990s by a unit of Toyota Motor to track automotive parts. But when the Japanese pioneered digital payments almost two decades ago with contactless cards for train fares, they chose the so-called near-field communications technology. The high cost of rolling out NFC payments, convenient ATMs and a culture where lost wallets are often returned have all been cited as reasons why cash remains king in the archipelago. In China, however, QR codes dominate.

Cashless payments, which includes credit cards, accounted for just 20 per cent of total consumer spending in Japan during 2016, compared with 60 per cent in China and 89 per cent in South Korea, according to a report by the Bank of Japan.

MATCH INFO

Manchester United 6 (McTominay 2', 3'; Fernandes 20', 70' pen; Lindelof 37'; James 65')

Leeds United 2 (Cooper 41'; Dallas 73')

Man of the match: Scott McTominay (Manchester United)