Gulf crude producers are positioned to benefit from sanctions and a threatened oil embargo against Iran - if calm can be maintained - as Saudi Arabia considers increasing production to cover lost supply.
The EU's embargo of oil imports, which goes into effect on July 1, has renewed a rise in oil prices that was briefly halted on fears over the global economic crisis.
Brinksmanship over Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz sparked a rally in oil prices at the end of last year, with sabre-rattling by Iran and the US sending the price of Brent crude futures to highs of US$111.11 per barrel.
Political risk is likely to be factored into crude prices for much of the foreseeable future, said Ole Hansen, the senior commodity strategist at Saxo Bank.
"Over the coming days and weeks, however the market will be nervously awaiting the next move from Iran, and in the unlikely event it leads to a military conflict, the price of oil has the potential of spiking higher by anything between 20 and 40 dollars depending on the impact on free passage through the Strait," he said.
The International Energy Agency estimates oil production in Iran, the Middle East's second-biggest oil producer, accounts for 5.7 per cent of the world total.
Saudi Arabia's oil minister told CNN last week that the kingdom was willing to increase production to cover the shortfall from Iran, prompting a rebuke from Iran's foreign minister.
Assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open, the Gulf states could reap a windfall from additional oil revenues, said Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer at Emirates NBD Private Banking.
"With the Iran situation at the moment … there's the opportunity for the GCC to do well out of that," he said.
"You could say that the Iran embargo could create other problems, but in terms of oil production that would be a positive."
ghunter@thenational.ae
Race card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-2 Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 2,200m
6.30pm: Liwa Oaisi Group 2 (PA) Dh300,000 1,400m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m
The National selections: 5pm: Flit Al Maury, 5.30pm: Sadah, 6pm: RB Seqondtonone, 6.30pm: RB Money To Burn, 7pm: SS Jalmood, 7.30pm: Dalaalaat
THE LIGHT
Director: Tom Tykwer
Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger
Rating: 3/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
The Transfiguration
Director: Michael O’Shea
Starring: Eric Ruffin, Chloe Levine
Three stars
Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
1,000 Books to Read Before You Die: A Life-Changing List
James Mustich, Workman
CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGuillermo%20del%20Toro%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tim%20Blake%20Nelson%2C%20Sebastian%20Roche%2C%20Elpidia%20Carrillo%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Brief scoreline:
Toss: South Africa, elected to bowl first
England (311-8): Stokes 89, Morgan 57, Roy 54, Root 51; Ngidi 3-66
South Africa (207): De Kock 68, Van der Dussen 50; Archer 3-27, Stokes 2-12
Kill%20Bill%20Volume%201
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Quentin%20Tarantino%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Uma%20Thurman%2C%20David%20Carradine%20and%20Michael%20Madsen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mozn%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammed%20Alhussein%2C%20Khaled%20Al%20Ghoneim%2C%20Abdullah%20Alsaeed%20and%20Malik%20Alyousef%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Riyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Shorooq%20Partners%2C%20VentureSouq%2C%20Sukna%20Ventures%20and%20others%3C%2Fp%3E%0A