Today is the first day of the Abu Dhabi Economic Forum, but the focus should be on the giant catastrophe unfolding in Eastern Europe. The EU, in an emergency summit, has rejected a broad bailout of its beleaguered right flank despite concerns that the mess could put the Euro and even the very European Union in jeopardy. Instead, it hopes to handle the mess on a country-by-country basis, which is exactly the kind of piecemeal response that has kept policymakers behind the ball on this crisis since the first subprime US borrower went belly-up in the fall of 2007.
The EU has a responsibility to help out its beleaguered new members, the Baltics, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland,Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia. Ukraine, where thousands are being laid off and the government appears on the verge of default, is apparently the IMF's continued problem. The bill for the others could be crippling, especially as older EU members such as Ireland and Greece are in no better shape. Banks in Italy and Austria are especially exposed to the rot from the East. So now the ECB is finally edging rates lower as Jean-Claude Trichet studies the Fed's playbook of unconventional measures.
This should serve as a cautionary tale for the GCC as its members consider closer monetary and economic union. As the old saying go, any chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Would Saudi Arabia come to the rescue of, say, Oman or Bahrain, in such a time of crisis? Would Omanand Bahrain want that kind of rescue? Or would it prove as politically touchy as even efforts within the UAE to help out one of its own members? In the meantime, former OPEC Secretary General Dr Adnan Shihab Eldin is warning that the GCC could face a recession as the global economic crisis spreads.
The problem for the UAE is that it more closely resembles Hungary and, in particular Russia, than Slovenia. While Slovenia bankrolled its economic development after the fall of the Iron Curtain with foreign direct investment, the UAE did so by borrowing against the perceived value of its principal natural resource export, oil. Had the UAE done the former instead of the latter, it might have been faced with overcapacity in manufacturing, a much more manageable problem than a collapsing property bubble. As the Economist points out this week, companies cannot easily dig up their high-tech manufacturing plants. The equipment, the investment and the knowhow that came with them tend to stay put. Loans, on the other hand, get called. Or they don't get refinanced.
The lessons are the same: reform, reform, reform. Don't wait until the waters are around your neck to build a levee. More must be done to shore up banks in places like Ajman and Dubai. The guarantees on bank deposits are proving providential. And the peg makes a currency crisis unlikely; the addition of worker remittances to the outflow of investor capital could put pressure on the real exchange rate. We have no real-time sense of where Central Bank reserves stand after the purchase of Dubai's $10 billion in bonds. Presumably there is still plenty in the till.
But as Malaysia, Thailand and now Russia have demonstrated, the only way to defend a fixed exchange rate in the face of massive capital outflows is to either waste billions of dollars in a vain attempt to strong-arm the market or to impose controls on the flow of capital. Were the peg scrapped, it would be devastating for those who have borrowed heavily offshore in dollars and Euros, such as Dubai, but good for the UAE overall, helping it better absorb the shock of falling oil prices, making its other exported services, such as hotel rooms and financial services, relatively cheap and attracting foreign investment. Inflation may be falling, it is true, but the real risk now is deflation. A devaluation would help stave off that possibility.
Now that the federal government is backstopping Dubai's foreign debt with its own dollar reserves (that $10 billion bond issue was in US dollar, note, not in dirham) it may open the way for a devaluation of the dirham. With Dubai's debt safely insulated, a lower dirham would help resuscitate property investment and tourism.
warnold@thenational.ae
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Avatar%20(2009)
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Australia men's Test cricket fixtures 2021/22
One-off Test v Afghanistan:
Nov 27-Dec 1: Blundstone Arena, Hobart
The Ashes v England:
Dec 8-12: 1st Test, Gabba, Brisbane
Dec 16-20: 2nd Test, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (day/night)
Dec 26-30: 3rd Test, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Jan 5-9, 2022: 4th Test, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Jan 14-18: 5th Test, Optus Stadium, Perth
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SPEC%20SHEET
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Types of policy
Term life insurance: this is the cheapest and most-popular form of life cover. You pay a regular monthly premium for a pre-agreed period, typically anything between five and 25 years, or possibly longer. If you die within that time, the policy will pay a cash lump sum, which is typically tax-free even outside the UAE. If you die after the policy ends, you do not get anything in return. There is no cash-in value at any time. Once you stop paying premiums, cover stops.
Whole-of-life insurance: as its name suggests, this type of life cover is designed to run for the rest of your life. You pay regular monthly premiums and in return, get a guaranteed cash lump sum whenever you die. As a result, premiums are typically much higher than one term life insurance, although they do not usually increase with age. In some cases, you have to keep up premiums for as long as you live, although there may be a cut-off period, say, at age 80 but it can go as high as 95. There are penalties if you don’t last the course and you may get a lot less than you paid in.
Critical illness cover: this pays a cash lump sum if you suffer from a serious illness such as cancer, heart disease or stroke. Some policies cover as many as 50 different illnesses, although cancer triggers by far the most claims. The payout is designed to cover major financial responsibilities such as a mortgage or children’s education fees if you fall ill and are unable to work. It is cost effective to combine it with life insurance, with the policy paying out once if you either die or suffer a serious illness.
Income protection: this pays a replacement income if you fall ill and are unable to continue working. On the best policies, this will continue either until you recover, or reach retirement age. Unlike critical illness cover, policies will typically pay out for stress and musculoskeletal problems such as back trouble.
Get inspired
Here are a couple of Valentine’s Day food products that may or may not go the distance (but have got the internet talking anyway).
Sourdough sentiments: Marks & Spencer in the United Kingdom has introduced a slow-baked sourdough loaf dusted with flour to spell out I (heart) you, at £2 (Dh9.5). While it’s not available in the UAE, there’s nothing to stop you taking the idea and creating your own message of love, stencilled on breakfast-inbed toast.
Crisps playing cupid: Crisp company Tyrells has added a spicy addition to its range for Valentine’s Day. The brand describes the new honey and chilli flavour on Twitter as: “A tenderly bracing duo of the tantalising tingle of chilli with sweet and sticky honey. A helping hand to get your heart racing.” Again, not on sale here, but if you’re tempted you could certainly fashion your own flavour mix (spicy Cheetos and caramel popcorn, anyone?).
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills