Lower commodity prices lure investors into recession rally


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The consensus is that inflation is burning itself out and that we now face a more conventional global slowdown. Oil prices, for example, staged their biggest one-day drop last night since 2004 on signs of easing tensions in Georgia. But supplies remain tight and vulnerable to new supply shocks. And credit concerns remain, which may force up spreads and force central bankers to ease policy more aggressively. Many investors, therefore, remain unconvinced that inflation is behind us entirely and Treasuries, which should rise as the prospect of inflation abates, fell overnight, even as the dollar tip-toed upward with the rally in stocks. That would be symptomatic of a return to risk appetite, which doesn't make sense if you're expecting a global slowdown. Yet Asian equities are rallying on the back of Wall Street's big jump last night. Fed chief Bernanke still warns that the outlook for inflation remains uncertain. Indeed, some economists think Bernanke cut rates too fast and still needs to raise them to snuff inflation out once and for all. Lower prices will tend to stoke relatively inelastic demand for essential commodities like food and oil, particularly in emerging markets where growth is projected to remain just below 10 per cent. Persistent credit issues, combined with the possibility of more rate cuts, could further weaken the US dollar, moreover, contributing to commodity price increases. There are still shortages in China for things like copper that are mirrored throughout the emerging world. In the UAE, for example, much of the inflation is not imported, but the result of systemic bottlenecks driven by economic growth and speculation in property. With signs emerging that the property slump is spreading to emerging markets, including Dubai, things may change rapidly. The tendency in the market is to focus on the area where it gets the most information, i.e. the US and Europe, and extrapolate outward into more opaque global markets. US demand is certainly falling. The outlook for auto sales looks grim, which could feed into prices for a range of commodities, from metals to oil for gas tanks and plastics. And Bernanke has made it clear in Jackson Hole not to expect good news from the US economy. One major source of concern is that foreign central banks, mostly China, will now pull back from buying the debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. China has been buying in excess of $60 billion a week of the so-called agency debt, thereby recycling its ballooning currency reserves and keeping US interest rates lower than they might have been given the size of its current account deficit and the worsening housing slump. But now China's purchases appear to have fallen off a cliff. Concerns about the health of the two agencies, which are vital to the functioning of the US housing market, are no doubt one reason. Another reason may be that China is finally going to do what the US has always urged it to do: channel more of its savings into domestic investment to create a demand-driven economy. In my column last week, I wrote that many economists in Asia expect China to try to kick-start its economy with fiscal stimulus in the wake of the Olympics - when China put the industrial sector into deep-freeze. If China decides to draw on its foreign exchange reserves to increase domestic liquidity and allow the renminbi to appreciate, it could end what Brad Setser calls the "quiet bailout" of the US by foreign central banks. While it might seem more likely that China would not allow the appreciation of the RMB, but rather try to keep it stable to stimulate exports for a quicker fix to its slowdown, the fact that demand for exports is so weak while China's demand for infrastructure and jobs is so great could prompt new thinking in Beijing. warnold@thenational.ae

RESULTS
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Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Gorillaz 
The Now Now 

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Listen to Extra Time
Dhadak

Director: Shashank Khaitan

Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana

Stars: 3

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
Jawan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAtlee%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Nayanthara%2C%20Vijay%20Sethupathi%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
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Schedule for Asia Cup

Sept 15: Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Dubai)

Sept 16: Pakistan v Qualifier (Dubai)

Sept 17: Sri Lanka v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 18: India v Qualifier (Dubai)

Sept 19: India v Pakistan (Dubai)

Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four

Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai) 

Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)

Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)

Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 28: Final (Dubai)

If you go

The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Santiago, via Sao Paolo cost from Dh5,295 with Emirates


The trip
A five-day trip (not including two days of flight travel) was split between Santiago and in Puerto Varas, with more time spent in the later where excursions were organised by TurisTour.
 

When to go
The summer months, from December to February are best though there is beauty in each season

Afghanistan Premier League - at a glance

Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium

Fixtures:

Tue, Oct 16, 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Kabul Zwanan; Wed, Oct 17, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Nangarhar Leopards; 8pm: Kandahar Knights v Paktia Panthers; Thu, Oct 18, 4pm: Balkh Legends v Kandahar Knights; 8pm: Kabul Zwanan v Paktia Panthers; Fri, Oct 19, 8pm: First semi-final; Sat, Oct 20, 8pm: Second semi-final; Sun, Oct 21, 8pm: final

Table:

1. Balkh Legends 6 5 1 10

2. Paktia Panthers 6 4 2 8

3. Kabul Zwanan 6 3 3 6

4. Nagarhar Leopards 7 2 5 4

5. Kandahar Knights 5 1 4 2

Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company

Scoreline

Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')

Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')

Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'

Score

Third Test, Day 2

New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)

Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings

Match info

Manchester City 3 (Jesus 22', 50', Sterling 69')
Everton 1 (Calvert-Lewin 65')

The five types of long-term residential visas

Obed Suhail of ServiceMarket, an online home services marketplace, outlines the five types of long-term residential visas:

Investors:

A 10-year residency visa can be obtained by investors who invest Dh10 million, out of which 60 per cent should not be in real estate. It can be a public investment through a deposit or in a business. Those who invest Dh5 million or more in property are eligible for a five-year residency visa. The invested amount should be completely owned by the investors, not loaned, and retained for at least three years.

Entrepreneurs:

A five-year multiple entry visa is available to entrepreneurs with a previous project worth Dh0.5m or those with the approval of an accredited business incubator in the UAE.  

Specialists

Expats with specialised talents, including doctors, specialists, scientists, inventors, and creative individuals working in the field of culture and art are eligible for a 10-year visa, given that they have a valid employment contract in one of these fields in the country.

Outstanding students:

A five-year visa will be granted to outstanding students who have a grade of 95 per cent or higher in a secondary school, or those who graduate with a GPA of 3.75 from a university. 

Retirees:

Expats who are at least 55 years old can obtain a five-year retirement visa if they invest Dh2m in property, have savings of Dh1m or more, or have a monthly income of at least Dh20,000.

Tickets

Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.

Dubai World Cup Carnival card:

6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) | US$175,000 2,410 metres

7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (Dirt) $100,000 1,400m

7.40pm: Handicap (T) $145,000 1,000m

8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) $200,000 1,200m

8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) $200,000 1,800m

9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 1,400m

LAST-16 FIXTURES

Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi

LIST OF INVITEES

Shergo Kurdi (am) 
Rayhan Thomas
Saud Al Sharee (am)
Min Woo Lee
Todd Clements
Matthew Jordan
AbdulRahman Al Mansour (am)
Matteo Manassero
Alfie Plant
Othman Al Mulla
Shaun Norris

ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon

For more information go to www.abudhabi.triathlon.org.

Racecard:

6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres

7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m

7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m

8.15pm: Meydan Trophy | Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m

8.50pm: Balanchine | Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m

9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m

10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m.

Tomb%20Raider%20I%E2%80%93III%20Remastered
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai World Cup nominations

UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer

USA: Seeking The Soul/Dallas Stewart, Imperial Hunt/Luis Carvajal Jr, Audible/Todd Pletcher, Roy H/Peter Miller, Yoshida/William Mott, Promises Fulfilled/Dale Romans, Gunnevera/Antonio Sano, XY Jet/Jorge Navarro, Pavel/Doug O’Neill, Switzerland/Steve Asmussen.

Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.

ELIO

Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett

Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina

Rating: 4/5

Quick%20facts
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStorstockholms%20Lokaltrafik%20(SL)%20offers%20free%20guided%20tours%20of%20art%20in%20the%20metro%20and%20at%20the%20stations%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20tours%20are%20free%20of%20charge%3B%20all%20you%20need%20is%20a%20valid%20SL%20ticket%2C%20for%20which%20a%20single%20journey%20(valid%20for%2075%20minutes)%20costs%2039%20Swedish%20krone%20(%243.75)%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETravel%20cards%20for%20unlimited%20journeys%20are%20priced%20at%20165%20Swedish%20krone%20for%2024%20hours%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAvoid%20rush%20hour%20%E2%80%93%20between%209.30%20am%20and%204.30%20pm%20%E2%80%93%20to%20explore%20the%20artwork%20at%20leisure%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
DIVINE%20INTERVENTOIN
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Brief scoreline:

Liverpool 2

Mane 51', Salah 53'

Chelsea 0

Man of the Match: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20ASI%20(formerly%20DigestAI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Quddus%20Pativada%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Artificial%20intelligence%2C%20education%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%243%20million-plus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GSV%20Ventures%2C%20Character%2C%20Mark%20Cuban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE SQUAD

UAE team
1. Chris Jones-Griffiths 2. Gio Fourie 3. Craig Nutt 4. Daniel Perry 5. Isaac Porter 6. Matt Mills 7. Hamish Anderson 8. Jaen Botes 9. Barry Dwyer 10. Luke Stevenson (captain) 11. Sean Carey 12. Andrew Powell 13. Saki Naisau 14. Thinus Steyn 15. Matt Richards

Replacements
16. Lukas Waddington 17. Murray Reason 18. Ahmed Moosa 19. Stephen Ferguson 20. Sean Stevens 21. Ed Armitage 22. Kini Natuna 23. Majid Al Balooshi

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

THE BIO

Bio Box

Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul

Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader

Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet

Favorite food: seafood

Favorite place to travel: Lebanon

Favorite movie: Braveheart

SPEC SHEET

Display: 10.4-inch IPS LCD, 400 nits, toughened glass

CPU: Unisoc T610; Mali G52 GPU

Memory: 4GB

Storage: 64GB, up to 512GB microSD

Camera: 8MP rear, 5MP front

Connectivity: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.0, USB-C, 3.5mm audio

Battery: 8200mAh, up to 10 hours video

Platform: Android 11

Audio: Stereo speakers, 2 mics

Durability: IP52

Biometrics: Face unlock

Price: Dh849

'Peninsula'

Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra

Director: ​Yeon Sang-ho

Rating: 2/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs

Price, base / as tested Dh135,000

Engine 1.6L turbo

Gearbox Six speed automatic with manual and sports mode

Power 165hp @ 6,000rpm

Torque 240Nm @ 1,400rpm 0-100kph: 9.2 seconds

Top speed 420 kph (governed)

Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

How to help

Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200

MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman

Director: Jesse Armstrong

Rating: 3.5/5

How to help

Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200

Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin

F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates