The European Central Bank (ECB) needs several more rate rises to tame inflation despite what is likely to be a deep recession in Germany, and should also look into scaling down its balance sheet, Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said on Saturday.
The ECB has raised rates twice already this year, but at 0.75 per cent, its deposit rate is still far below levels most consider to be appropriate when inflation is running at 10 per cent and could hold above the bank's 2 per cent target for years to come.
"Further interest rate hikes will be needed to bring the inflation rate back to 2 per cent in the medium term — not just at the monetary policy meeting at the end of October,” Mr Nagel said in a speech in Washington.
"The ECB Governing Council must not let up too soon.”
Markets currently price in a 75-basis point move on October 27, the same as September's increase, and few if any policymakers have pushed back publicly on these expectations.
"As monetary policy continues to normalise, we will also need to look into scaling back Eurosystem asset holdings, which amount to almost €5 trillion,” Mr Nagel said.
While the ECB has provided no timeline for reducing its balance sheet, a process often called quantitative tightening, policymakers appear to be advocating a start only in 2023, arguing that the bulk of the rate rises should take place before the ECB starts letting some of its debt pile expire.
Monetary policy tightening is needed as inflation is likely to stay high, and Mr Nagel predicted Germany's rate would reach more than 7 per cent next year.
A complication in the process is that the 19-country eurozone faces a recession with Germany, its biggest economy, likely among the biggest losers.
"GDP [in Germany] could decline significantly in the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023,” Mr Nagel said.
"This would imply a recession, that is a significant, broad-based and longer-lasting decrease in economic output.”
While you're here
David Frum: What Biden has to fix - and preserve - from the Trump era
Kareem Shaheen: What will Iran do with Biden's America?
Sunniva Rose: All eyes in Lebanon turn towards Iran
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
UNpaid bills:
Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN budget in 2019
USA – $1.055 billion
Brazil – $143 million
Argentina – $52 million
Mexico – $36 million
Iran – $27 million
Israel – $18 million
Venezuela – $17 million
Korea – $10 million
Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN peacekeeping operations in 2019
USA – $2.38 billion
Brazil – $287 million
Spain – $110 million
France – $103 million
Ukraine – $100 million
MATCH INFO
Wales 1 (Bale 45 3')
Croatia 1 (Vlasic 09')
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
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MATCH INFO
England 19 (Try: Tuilagi; Cons: Farrell; Pens: Ford (4)
New Zealand 7 (Try: Savea; Con: Mo'unga)
Top financial tips for graduates
Araminta Robertson, of the Financially Mint blog, shares her financial advice for university leavers:
1. Build digital or technical skills: After graduation, people can find it extremely hard to find jobs. From programming to digital marketing, your early twenties are for building skills. Future employers will want people with tech skills.
2. Side hustle: At 16, I lived in a village and started teaching online, as well as doing work as a virtual assistant and marketer. There are six skills you can use online: translation; teaching; programming; digital marketing; design and writing. If you master two, you’ll always be able to make money.
3. Networking: Knowing how to make connections is extremely useful. Use LinkedIn to find people who have the job you want, connect and ask to meet for coffee. Ask how they did it and if they know anyone who can help you. I secured quite a few clients this way.
4. Pay yourself first: The minute you receive any income, put about 15 per cent aside into a savings account you won’t touch, to go towards your emergency fund or to start investing. I do 20 per cent. It helped me start saving immediately.
The BIO:
He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal
He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side
By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam
Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border
He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push
His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level
MATCH INFO
Bangla Tigers 108-5 (10 ovs)
Ingram 37, Rossouw 26, Pretorius 2-10
Deccan Gladiators 109-4 (9.5 ovs)
Watson 41, Devcich 27, Wiese 2-15
Gladiators win by six wickets
MATCH DETAILS
Barcelona 0
Slavia Prague 0
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Third-place play-off: New Zealand v Wales, Friday, 1pm
MATCH INFO
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 1 (Martinez 18' pen)
Juventus 2 (Dybala 4', Higuain 80')
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Maiden; Dh165,000; (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap; Dh170,000; (D) 1,200m
7.40pm: Maiden; Dh165,000; (D) 1,900m
8.15pm: Handicap; Dh185,000; (D) 2,000m
8.50pm: Handicap; Dh185,000; (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap; Dh165,000; (D) 2,000m
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In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
While you're here
Con Coughlin: Grandstanding in Turkey leads to terrorism in France
Con Coughlin: The terror threat in Europe remains as potent as ever
Sholto Byrnes: After Charlie Hebdo, is religion dividing the world?
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
While you're here
Hussein Ibish: There are reasons for Democrats and Republicans to be happy
Rashmee Roshan Lall: Who are the women driving Joe Biden's success?
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Zayed Sustainability Prize
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
MATCH INFO
Burnley 1 (Brady 89')
Manchester City 4 (Jesus 24', 50', Rodri 68', Mahrez 87')
The specs: 2018 Peugeot 5008
Price, base / as tested: Dh99,900 / Dh134,900
Engine: 1.6-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 165hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 240Nm @ 1,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.8L / 100km
Small Victories: The True Story of Faith No More by Adrian Harte
Jawbone Press
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press
ENGLAND%20SQUAD
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
While you're here
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
Kandahar%20
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
