Fears of stagflation are percolating on Wall Street, as investors await data that could shed light on whether the Federal Reserve is succeeding in tamping down inflation without badly hurting growth.
Stagflation — a combination of stagnant growth and persistent inflation that dogged the US in the 1970s — dims the appeal of both equities and bonds, leaving investors fewer places to earn returns.
While far from assured, the scenario has loomed large in investors' minds as last year’s inflation surge forced the Fed to launch an aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle that many expect to bring on a recession.
Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed.
April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86 per cent saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024.
Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. A strong number could weigh on a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 nearly 8 per cent this year.
“Stagflation is a growing concern,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.
“Inflation is a lot higher than the Fed thought it would be, and it’s coming down at an extraordinarily slow pace while we think the economy has already hit its high water mark for the year.”
US employment data on Friday showed hourly wages grew in April at an annual rate of 4.4 per cent, too strong to be consistent with the Fed's 2 per cent inflation target. Growth remained robust, however, with job creation accelerating and the unemployment rate falling to a 53-year low.
Still, bets in futures markets continued to show traders pricing interest rate cuts later this year. Policymakers have insisted they will keep rates at around current level for the remainder of 2023 after raising them another 25 basis points this week.
Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, believes the US will fall into recession later this year. Factors including higher commodity prices and a shift to local supply chains from global ones are likely to keep inflation elevated even as growth declines, Mr Torres said.
He has become more bullish on dividend paying stocks in sectors such as utilities, expecting the extra income to buttress returns as inflation weighs on equity valuations and the S&P 500 treads water.
"The Fed made the mistake of being too accommodative for too long,” Mr Torres said. “It will take more time than the market expects to get the US back to being a 2 per cent inflation country.”
Consumer prices rose by 5 per cent in March, far above levels seen over most of the past decade though down from last June's peak of 9.1 per cent. US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter, while activity in the manufacturing sector remained depressed last month.
Past episodes of stagflation have weighed on stocks. The S&P 500 fell a median of 2.1 per cent during quarters marked by stagflation over the last 60 years, while rising a median 2.5 per cent during all other quarters, according to Goldman Sachs.
Everybody is positioned for the end of the world, but when you know that the Fed is out of the hiking game ... it’s a much sturdier footing for investors than anybody anticipated at this point in 2023
Charlie McElligott,
managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, has been buying gold. Prices for the metal, a popular inflation hedge and haven during uncertain times, have surged to a near record high this year, lifted by geopolitical worries and a looming showdown over the US debt ceiling.
"It looks to me that gold is sniffing out a tinge of stagflation,” said Ms Krosby, who has also added positions to equity sectors she expects to better weather economic turbulence, such as consumer staples.
Other investors were more optimistic, believing growth will hold up.
Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7 per cent growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8 per cent on May 1.
At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.
"Everybody is positioned for the end of the world, but when you know that the Fed is out of the hiking game ... it’s a much sturdier footing for investors than anybody anticipated at this point in 2023."
Biography
Her family: She has four sons, aged 29, 27, 25 and 24 and is a grandmother-of-nine
Favourite book: Flashes of Thought by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid
Favourite drink: Water
Her hobbies: Reading and volunteer work
Favourite music: Classical music
Her motto: I don't wait, I initiate
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Company%20Profile
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Test squad: Azhar Ali (captain), Abid Ali, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Imam-ul-Haq, Imran Khan, Iftikhar Ahmed, Kashif Bhatti, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Rizwan(wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Naseem Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Shan Masood, Yasir Shah
Twenty20 squad: Babar Azam (captain), Asif Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Sohail, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Imam-ul-Haq, Khushdil Shah, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Hasnain, Mohammad Irfan, Mohammad Rizwan (wicketkeeper), Musa Khan, Shadab Khan, Usman Qadir, Wahab Riaz
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
MATCH STATS
Wolves 0
Aston Villa 1 (El Ghazi 90 4' pen)
Red cards: Joao Moutinho (Wolves); Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)
Man of the match: Emi Martinez (Aston Villa)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Results
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A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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Why the Tourist Club?
Originally, The Club (which many people chose to call the “British Club”) was the only place where one could use the beach with changing rooms and a shower, and get refreshments.
In the early 1970s, the Government of Abu Dhabi wanted to give more people a place to get together on the beach, with some facilities for children. The place chosen was where the annual boat race was held, which Sheikh Zayed always attended and which brought crowds of locals and expatriates to the stretch of beach to the left of Le Méridien and the Marina.
It started with a round two-storey building, erected in about two weeks by Orient Contracting for Sheikh Zayed to use at one these races. Soon many facilities were planned and built, and members were invited to join.
Why it was called “Nadi Al Siyahi” is beyond me. But it is likely that one wanted to convey the idea that this was open to all comers. Because there was no danger of encountering alcohol on the premises, unlike at The Club, it was a place in particular for the many Arab expatriate civil servants to join. Initially the fees were very low and membership was offered free to many people, too.
Eventually there was a skating rink, bowling and many other amusements.
Frauke Heard-Bey is a historian and has lived in Abu Dhabi since 1968.
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre V6
Power: 295hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 355Nm at 5,200rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
Price: Dh179,999-plus
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO
Europa League semi-final, second leg
Atletico Madrid (1) v Arsenal (1)
Where: Wanda Metropolitano
When: Thursday, kick-off 10.45pm
Live: On BeIN Sports HD
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,200 metres
Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Younis Kalbani (trainer)
5.30pm: UAE Arabian Derby (PA) | Prestige | Dh150,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Octave, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round 3 (PA) | Group 3 Dh300,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Harrab, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Ali
6.30pm: Emirates Championship (PA) | Group 1 | Dh1million | 2,200m
Winner: BF Mughader, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (TB) | Group 3 | Dh380,000 | 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) | Conditions | Dh70,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF La’Asae, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Europe wide
Some of French groups are threatening Friday to continue their journey to Brussels, the capital of Belgium and the European Union, and to meet up with drivers from other countries on Monday.
Belgian authorities joined French police in banning the threatened blockade. A similar lorry cavalcade was planned for Friday in Vienna but cancelled after authorities prohibited it.
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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