An expected slowdown in the world economy this year means investors around the globe will find it harder to generate returns and will need to revisit their investment strategies amid changing inflation and interest rate dynamics, a top asset manager has said.
Listed on the New York Stock Exchange, UK-based Janus Henderson Investors manages more than $308 billion in assets globally.
Its first office in the Middle East was set up in Dubai, in 2012. Since then, it has been serving clients in the region, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, family offices and ultra-high-net-worth individuals.
The asset management firm also provides tailored investment solutions for some pension funds and SWFs in the region.
There is still a lot of opportunity in the fixed income and equity markets, whether be it in the US or globally, but “that doesn't mean that everything will go up and everything will be easy to make money off”, Ali Dibadj, the firm's global chief executive, told The National in an interview.
As interest rates are about to subside, as hinted by the US Federal Reserve in its December 13 meeting, it means the end of the easy returns for everyone, he warned.
Mr Dibadj advised investors to be “very, very diligent”, adding that they could not “just pick one company because it’s making money, because there might be mini bubbles along the way”.
“Even if the interest rates come down, I will be very surprised if they go down as low as they have been historically, at least for the past 10 years or so,” he said.
Investors need to pick and choose an asset carefully across different markets, regardless of the “enormous” market opportunities, Mr Dibadj said, explaining the shift in the investment environment.
The expected fall in interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of holding cash and could lead to reallocations to the return-generating potential of carefully selected risk assets, he said.
On December 13, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank expected to begin bringing down interest rates from this year.
“Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment. That’s very good news. But inflation is still too high; ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain,” Mr Powell said at the time.
The Fed ended its final policy meeting of the year by leaving interest rates unchanged at 5.4 per cent – their highest level in 22 years.
By aggressively raising rates, the central bank has sought to rein in the surge in US inflation, which had climbed to 9.1 per cent in 2022.
Markets cheered on December 13 and the rally continued until the end of year, with the Wall Street closing 2023 having posted its best annual rise since 2019.
The S&P 500 index ended 2023 more than 24 per cent up while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 13 per cent and the Nasdaq soared 43 per cent, its highest annual gain since 2020, on rate cut hopes.
The MSCI World Index, which tracks large and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets, soared 22 per cent in 2023.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which captures large and mid-cap stocks across 24 emerging markets, also ended higher by about 7 per cent last year while MSCI GCC index closed up 3.7 per cent.
On the fixed-income side, the market rallied last year on rate cut expectations. The S&P US Dollar Global High Yield Corporate Bond Index returned 12.1 per cent to bond investors while S&P Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index had returns of 8.2 per cent.
Emerging investment trends in GCC
In December, Janus Henderson Investors bolstered its business in the Middle East with the appointment of Marwan Al Saleh as senior adviser.
Mr Al Saleh was previously at the Kuwait Investment Authority, where he managed its fixed-income asset allocation from 2016 to 2021.
“We are well into the double digits of billions of dollars of assets under management in the region from some of the most sophisticated investors,” said Mr Dibadj.
“From a global perspective, however, the assets under management [AUM] of the GCC region are still relatively small, comprising around 5 per cent of our global AUM.”
Janus Henderson Investors is bullish about the region's “tremendous” growth potential.
“We've been growing quite well over the past 12 to 18 months in the region, in terms of the number of clients, the number of funds on offer, as well as in terms of assets under management,” Mr Dibadj said.
The AUM of GCC sovereign wealth funds have grown 70 per cent since 2018 to $3.6 trillion, driven by an increase in oil and gas prices, and an active investment approach, credit rating agency DBRS Morningstar said in a report last September.
Last year, the AUM of sovereign wealth funds in the GCC reached a historical peak of $4.1 trillion while investment activity, although lower than it was in 2022, amounted to $82.3 billion, industry specialist Global SWF said in its annual report released on January 1.
In terms of the investment preference of regional institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds, Mr Dibadj said he was seeing distinctive trends.
“As interest rates are higher, a lot of our clients in the GCC and, broadly, the Middle East are looking for public equities, which offer a really interesting opportunity without the liquidity constraints to get private equity type of returns at this point in time,” he said.
The asset management firm also says private debt market, as an asset class, is gradually picking up among region's institutional investors.
“Historically, this asset class has been occupying a significant place in the investment strategies of the sovereign wealth funds and family offices of the region,” Mr Dibadj said.
“However, a lot of that private debt has been investing outside the region, leaving little to invest within. That's the area we expect will continue to grow and hold a lot of opportunity.”
The GCC region continues to be a great place to do business, despite geopolitical volatility in the region, Mr Dibadj said.
“Every part of the world has a different journey, a different trajectory, a different path. For the Middle East specifically, our view is that the region broadly continues to stabilise,” he said.
“Take the UAE, for instance. It's a very young country but the progress that has happened in such a short period of time has been excellent.
“We are quite bullish about the UAE and the GCC and we continue to see progress and a diversifying investment mindset among policymakers, and a strong interest around energy transition.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
Results
4pm: Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Panadol, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
4.35pm: Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m; Winner: Walton Street, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.10pm: Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Canvassed, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O’Meara
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
7.30pm: Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Final Song, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs
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UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group C
Liverpool v Red Star Belgrade
Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Company%20Profile
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Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
FIGHT INFO
Men’s 60kg Round 1:
Ahmad Shuja Jamal (AFG) beat Krisada Takhiankliang (THA) - points
Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) beat Akram Alyminee (YEM) - retired Round 1
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Bhanu Pratap Pandit (IND) - TKO Round 1
Men’s 71kg Round 1:
Seyed Kaveh Soleyman (IRI) beat Abedel Rahman (JOR) - RSC round 3.
Amine Al Moatassime (UAE) walk over Ritiz Puri (NEP)
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Bio
Age: 25
Town: Al Diqdaqah – Ras Al Khaimah
Education: Bachelors degree in mechanical engineering
Favourite colour: White
Favourite place in the UAE: Downtown Dubai
Favourite book: A Life in Administration by Ghazi Al Gosaibi.
First owned baking book: How to Be a Domestic Goddess by Nigella Lawson.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
One-off T20 International: UAE v Australia
When: Monday, October 22, 2pm start
Where: Abu Dhabi Cricket, Oval 1
Tickets: Admission is free
Australia squad: Aaron Finch (captain), Mitch Marsh, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Chris Lynn, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, Darcy Short, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa, Peter Siddle
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Company%C2%A0profile
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Drivers’ championship standings after Singapore:
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes - 263
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari - 235
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes - 212
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull - 162
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari - 138
6. Sergio Perez, Force India - 68
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
THE BIO
Age: 33
Favourite quote: “If you’re going through hell, keep going” Winston Churchill
Favourite breed of dog: All of them. I can’t possibly pick a favourite.
Favourite place in the UAE: The Stray Dogs Centre in Umm Al Quwain. It sounds predictable, but it honestly is my favourite place to spend time. Surrounded by hundreds of dogs that love you - what could possibly be better than that?
Favourite colour: All the colours that dogs come in
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 4 (Mount 18',Werner 44', Hudson-Odoi 49', Havertz 85')
Morecambe 0
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
How to come clean about financial infidelity
- Be honest and transparent: It is always better to own up than be found out. Tell your partner everything they want to know. Show remorse. Inform them of the extent of the situation so they know what they are dealing with.
- Work on yourself: Be honest with yourself and your partner and figure out why you did it. Don’t be ashamed to ask for professional help.
- Give it time: Like any breach of trust, it requires time to rebuild. So be consistent, communicate often and be patient with your partner and yourself.
- Discuss your financial situation regularly: Ensure your spouse is involved in financial matters and decisions. Your ability to consistently follow through with what you say you are going to do when it comes to money can make all the difference in your partner’s willingness to trust you again.
- Work on a plan to resolve the problem together: If there is a lot of debt, for example, create a budget and financial plan together and ensure your partner is fully informed, involved and supported.
Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
