Gold hit a record high of $2,431.29 on April 12. Reuters
Gold hit a record high of $2,431.29 on April 12. Reuters
Gold hit a record high of $2,431.29 on April 12. Reuters
Gold hit a record high of $2,431.29 on April 12. Reuters

Gold prices drop to two-and-a-half week low on easing Middle East conflict


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Gold prices fell on Tuesday to their lowest levels in more than two weeks on easing concerns of an escalation in the Middle East crisis, and as investors booked profits while awaiting key US data for new clues on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory.

Spot gold was down by about 1 per cent at $2,304.99 an ounce as of 3.36am GMT. US gold futures fell 1.2 per cent to $2,318.80.

“Gold has been the recipient of different types of buying flows in recent months, and now one of those flows has slightly dried up with safe-haven demand receding,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Gold dipped more than 2 per cent in the previous session, marking its biggest intraday fall in more than a year, as fears of a wider regional conflict eased after Iran said it had no plan to retaliate following an apparent Israeli drone attack.

“Investors are seeing this as an opportunity to lock in some profits after gold's recent run of good form,” Mr Waterer said.

Gold hit a record high of $2,431.29 on April 12.

This week's main economic focus will be on the US gross domestic product data on Thursday and Personal Consumption Expenditures print on Friday.

“If these happen to produce a beat to the upside, we could see a further extension of the wait for interest rate relief. Such a scenario could cause the gold price to take a larger step back … in the short term from an opportunity-cost perspective,” Mr Waterer said.

Markets forecast for a 0.3 per cent increase in the headline PCE number in March, unchanged from the previous month, and a year-on-year gain of 2.6 per cent, compared with a 2.5 per cent increase in February, according to a Reuters poll.

Among other precious metals, spot silver fell about 1 per cent to $26.92 an ounce while spot platinum dropped 0.7 per cent to $911.10 and palladium slumped 1.1 per cent to $997.75.

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THURSDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY

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Starting at 10am:

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Updated: April 23, 2024, 5:25 AM