US stock indexes edged lower on Wednesday in a volatile day of trading after the Federal Reserve began its latest easing cycle with an aggressive 50-basis point cut.
After the announcement, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said inflation has eased “significantly” over the past two years, allowing the central bank to now focus on protecting the US labour market and economy. The decision lowers the Fed's benchmark range from 5.25-5.50 per cent to 4.75-5.00 per cent.
“This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labour market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving towards a more neutral stance,” Mr Powell told reporters.
The Fed's preferred inflation metric has fallen to 2.5 per cent since its peak rate at 7.1 per cent in 2022. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.2 per cent and average payroll gains have fallen to 116,000 over the past three months.
“The Fed is shifting from fighting inflation to preventing a downturn in the economy,” said Kenneth Kim, senior economist at accounting firm KPMG.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 103 points to 41,503.10, although it is still near the all-time high it set on Monday. The S&P 500 closed 0.29 per cent lower, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.31 per cent.
“Not an extraordinary end of day market reaction to what in can certainly be seen as a bit of a surprise,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth, adding that it was also difficult to gauge market reaction considering the news conference ended about 40 minutes before the closing bell.
Although a 25-basis point cut was predicted by most economists, futures markets placed the probability of the larger 50-basis point cut at about two thirds heading into Wednesday's decision.
Mr Hogan said the larger rate cut showed a strong signal that the Fed is determined to bring rates closer to the neutral rate “in a fashion that won't take as much heavy lifting by the end of the calendar year”.
Quarterly projections released by the Federal Open Market Committee showed it expects to reduce rates by a further 50 basis points in the final two meetings this year. The median Fed official forecast rates would be cut by another full percentage point in 2025.
Mr Powell denied that the central bank was behind the curve on cutting interest rates. A number of officials in July suggested they would have been open to a rate cut then.
“There's no sense that the committee feels it's in a rush to do this,” he said.
Treasury yields also experienced volatility, with the 10-Year Treasury edged up to 3.71 per cent as of 5pm ET. The two-year Treasury rose to 3.62 per cent.
“Markets had largely priced in what the Fed gave us. It allowed for some room for traders to take profits here given that it's already priced in to a significant degree. So a little bit of profit-taking,” said John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics.
Mr Canavan said there could be a corrective rise in yields during the near term, which could push down equities.
“But that's really just a short-term position more than anything, in my view, and the longer-term outlook is that the economy will remain on solid footing,” he said.
“The Fed will continue to ease, and the combination will continue to move Treasury yields lower over the next year, offering equities good support.”
The Central Bank of the UAE joined the Fed in cutting rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. Central banks in England and Japan are expected to hold rates steady when they meet this week.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
England's all-time record goalscorers:
Wayne Rooney 53
Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
Michael Owen 40
Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
Viv Woodward 29
Frank Lampard 29
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Brief scoreline:
Liverpool 2
Mane 51', Salah 53'
Chelsea 0
Man of the Match: Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia
UAE Rugby finals day
Games being played at The Sevens, Dubai
2pm, UAE Conference final
Dubai Tigers v Al Ain Amblers
4pm, UAE Premiership final
Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The End of Loneliness
Benedict Wells
Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins
Sceptre
