The Syrian pound is likely to face volatility in the short term, say analysts. AP
The Syrian pound is likely to face volatility in the short term, say analysts. AP
The Syrian pound is likely to face volatility in the short term, say analysts. AP
The Syrian pound is likely to face volatility in the short term, say analysts. AP

Further Syrian currency devaluation 'can be avoided' with stable transitional government


Shweta Jain
  • English
  • Arabic

Live updates: Follow the latest on Syria

While the Syrian pound crashed after the fall of president Bashar Al Assad’s regime, further declines can be arrested if the country gets a stable transitional government, analysts have said.

The fall of Damascus ended the five-decade rule of the Assad family when rebels took control of the capital on Sunday. The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, have placed the civil administration under the supervision of Mohammad Al Jalali, the last prime minister who served under Mr Al Assad.

The Syrian pound, which plummeted on Sunday, had recovered slightly on Monday. The selling price of the dollar in Aleppo reached 18,000 Syrian pounds on Monday, while the buying price was 17,000, according to the SP Today website. The selling price of the dollar in Damascus reached 17,000 Syrian pounds, with 16,000 as the buying price.

A burning picture of Bashar Al Assad, ousted as president after rebels seized the capital, in Qamishli, Syria. Reuters
A burning picture of Bashar Al Assad, ousted as president after rebels seized the capital, in Qamishli, Syria. Reuters

The fall of the dictatorial regime led to the Syrian pound “trading at unprecedented lows, reflecting political instability, loss of investor confidence and economic paralysis”, said Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

“The currency’s collapse is exacerbating hyperinflation, widespread poverty and humanitarian crises while deterring foreign investment and reconstruction,” he told The National.

“To prevent further devaluation, Syria needs a stable transitional government, international financial assistance, prudent monetary policies like unified exchange rates, and diversification of its economy to reduce reliance on imports."

A political reshuffle of this amplitude will increase currency volatility in the short run, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

“The medium, long-term outlook [for the pound] depends on the country’s ability to form a strong government and to support reconstruction,” she told The National. "In the foreseeable future, restoration of oil exports could help improve the financial situation."

Scott Livermore, Oxford Economics’ chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa, stressed that it was hard to predict what lies ahead for the Syrian pound "as there is so much uncertainty".

“It seems unlikely the outlook for the currency shifts meaningfully in the near term," he said. "The political transition will likely be fraught with risks, given rival factions and sources of financing are uncertain. We really need to see how the post-Assad Syria is shaping up.”

  • A member of the Syrian opposition passes a Hama governorate sign on the Damascus to Aleppo motorway on Tuesday. EPA
    A member of the Syrian opposition passes a Hama governorate sign on the Damascus to Aleppo motorway on Tuesday. EPA
  • Signs of fighting in Hama. AP
    Signs of fighting in Hama. AP
  • Anti-government fighters in the town of Suran, between Aleppo and Hama. AFP
    Anti-government fighters in the town of Suran, between Aleppo and Hama. AFP
  • Syrian opposition fighters with a tank taken from the army in the town of Maarat Al Numan, south of Idlib. AP
    Syrian opposition fighters with a tank taken from the army in the town of Maarat Al Numan, south of Idlib. AP
  • An abandoned Syrian army tank on the outskirts of Hama. AP
    An abandoned Syrian army tank on the outskirts of Hama. AP
  • More abandoned tanks on the highway to Damascus, near the town of Suran, north of Hama. AFP
    More abandoned tanks on the highway to Damascus, near the town of Suran, north of Hama. AFP
  • Civilians escape the fighting in Suran. AP
    Civilians escape the fighting in Suran. AP
  • Anti-government fighters take possession of a Syrian army tank in Suran. AFP
    Anti-government fighters take possession of a Syrian army tank in Suran. AFP
  • Anti-government fighters on the highway to Damascus. AFP
    Anti-government fighters on the highway to Damascus. AFP
  • Civilians flee fighting in Suran. AFP
    Civilians flee fighting in Suran. AFP
  • Fighting rages in Suran. AFP
    Fighting rages in Suran. AFP
  • An aerial view of Suran. AFP
    An aerial view of Suran. AFP

The Syrian pound has been depreciating steadily since 2011 due to the civil war, sanctions and various political developments. The official exchange rate of the Syrian pound declined 270-fold against the US dollar between 2011 and 2023, reaching 12,562 to a dollar, the World Bank said.

Since 2020, the Syrian pound has lost more than 90 per cent of its value against the US dollar in the parallel market. In 2023 alone, the average market price of the Syrian pound recorded a 141 per cent depreciation against the US dollar. Throughout last year, the Central Bank of Syria devalued the official exchange rate several times, although it remained consistently below the prevailing market rate.

A worsening economic situation and the imposition of new US sanctions in mid-2020 that encouraged capital flight and reduced remittances have further fuelled the depreciation.

According to Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, while the pound has seen “substantial depreciation” since the start of the civil war in Syria, it could regain some ground with the end of the Assad regime.

Recovery is likely, “especially as more Syrian expats are planning to return and [they] could step in to rebuild the broken economy ... therefore, the Syrian pound could appreciate once the new government takes place”, he said.

The Central Bank of Syria will have an immense task to stabilise the currency “by implementing regulatory reforms” to control liquidity within the market and prevent a spread between the black market and banks.

“Additionally, the government will need to work on diversifying the country’s income by attracting more foreign investment,” Mr Valecha said.

Before the war started, Syria’s economy relied on tourism, transit trade returns, agricultural products and earnings of Syrian expats.

“Once the new government settles, the Syrian real estate and construction sector could blossom as neighbouring countries are ready to step in and help the new government rebuild the broken infrastructure,” Mr Valecha said. “In the longer term, the Syrian government will have to work on bringing back tourists to the country, which will provide a hard currency stream income to Syria.”

The Birkin bag is made by Hermès. 
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.

Farage on Muslim Brotherhood

Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.

Origin
Dan Brown
Doubleday

About Takalam

Date started: early 2020

Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh

Based: Abu Dhabi

Sector: HealthTech and wellness

Number of staff: 4

Funding to date: Bootstrapped

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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

The Florida Project

Director: Sean Baker

Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe

Four stars

Profile Periscope Media

Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)

Launch year: 2020

Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021

Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year

Investors: Co-founders

Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Results

5pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m

Winner No Riesgo Al Maury, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)

5.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m

Winner Marwa W’Rsan, Sam Hitchcott, Jaci Wickham.

6pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m

Winner Dahess D’Arabie, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi.

6.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m

Winner Safin Al Reef, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi.

7pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 2,200m

Winner Thulbaseera Al Jasra, Shakir Al Balushi, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.

7.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh 80,000 2,200m

Winner Autumn Pride, Szczepan Mazur, Helal Al Alawi.

UK's plans to cut net migration

Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.

Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.

But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.

Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.

Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.

The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.

Museum of the Future in numbers
  •  78 metres is the height of the museum
  •  30,000 square metres is its total area
  •  17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
  •  14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
  •  1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior 
  •  7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
  •  2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
  •  100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
  •  Dh145 is the price of a ticket
MATCH INFO

Red Star Belgrade v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight (Thursday), UAE

Super%20Mario%20Bros%20Wonder
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20EPD%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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ATP RANKINGS (NOVEMBER 4)

1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 9,585 pts ( 1)
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8,945 (-1)
3. Roger Federer (SUI) 6,190
4. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 5,705
5. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 5,025
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 4,000 ( 1)
7. Alexander Zverev (GER) 2,945 (-1)
8. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 2,670 ( 1)
9. Roberto Bautista (ESP) 2,540 ( 1)
10. Gaël Monfils (FRA) 2,530 ( 3)
11. David Goffin (BEL) 2,335 ( 3)
12. Fabio Fognini (ITA) 2,290
13. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 2,180 (-2)
14. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2,125 ( 1)
15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2,050 ( 13)
16. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 2,000
17. Karen Khachanov (RUS) 1,840 (-9)
18. Alex De Minaur (AUS) 1,775
19. John Isner (USA) 1,770 (-2)
20. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 1,747 ( 7)

BMW M5 specs

Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor

Power: 727hp

Torque: 1,000Nm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh650,000

Updated: December 09, 2024, 12:14 PM