Lord Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs chief economist and the man who coined the term Brics in 2001, joined me for breakfast at the AIM Summit in Downtown Dubai.
Despite his long-term optimism about the technology’s potential, Mr O’Neill distances himself from the market’s current obsession. “I'm more cautious. Despite everything I've just said. Too much of a value person”
“I've struggled just to see how it could have done what it's done the past couple of years. And I have to say what what really bothers me in the past couple of months is now that we have various parts of the market, even seem to be basically investing in each other... That brings back memories of 1998-99 and the build-up to that, the Nasdaq bubble. So no – I’d stay away.”
He still sees promise where artificial intelligence can deliver real-world productivity. “I’m quite heavily involved in early-stage venture work – applications of AI in health or education where we can get transformational outcomes. I look at that as profit with a purpose.
“Central bank monetary policy is perhaps still contrary to the current general view” How could every asset class be doing well at the same time? how could every asset class be doing well at the same time? Doesn't really make a lot of sense other than a consequence of very accommodative, provision of money.”
Markets, he adds, are often far ahead in figuring things out. O’Neill warns that investors risk repeating history. He said he had just checked the University of Michigan five-year inflation expectations – 3.7 per cent – above the range of the past 30 years,” he says. “That doesn’t suggest inflation is beaten. The longer it stays at those levels, the more ingrained it gets into the psychology of life… we’re going to end up going back to the 1960s and 1970s, inflation becoming a real issue.”
Brics and the dollar challenge
Two decades after coining the term, O’Neill sees a new dynamic between China and India that could reshape global power. “It’s more symbolism, but it’s powerful symbolism and it’s getting bigger,” he says of meetings involving China's President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“If India and China started to really treat each other seriously, then you’re talking a whole different ball game.
”He argues that the post-Second World War institutions – the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and even the G20 – no longer reflect the balance of power today.
“All these guys are underrepresented in them,” he says. “But you’re not going to change any of it unless you start to treat each other more seriously on trade “if the Indians and the Chinese, instead of sort of taking lumps out of each other on the border every other year, actually started to seriously pursue free trade with each other... then you could start to believe all these things about the use of their currencies more, a lot more seriously than all the talk I often hear.
O’Neill, who has watched past attempts by the yen and euro to challenge the greenback, cautions that change comes only when the US pushes others to seek alternatives. he says. If the US keeps doing things to provoke, other governments, policymakers as well as private investors to look for something else, that process in itself might force these alternatives to become more realistic than otherwise would be the case.
He recalls how the world’s mood shifted after 9/11. “ I thought the underlying symbolism of the brutal attack on 9/11 .. is the world had basically had enough of Americanisation,” O’Neill says.
“We then had a decade of many equity markets outperforming the US and many years of the dollar being weak … but that stopped in 2011..
“I can't see anything specific provoking at all, unless Trump or a follow on to Trump gets in… making fundamentally wrong decisions for the sustainable credibility of the United States.”
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Aryan%20Lakra%2C%20Ashwanth%20Valthapa%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20CP%20Rizwaan%2C%20Hazrat%20Billal%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%20and%20Zawar%20Farid.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight Championship AJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETHE%20SPECS%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EEngine%3A%203.5-litre%20V6%0D%3Cbr%3ETransmission%3A%209-speed%20automatc%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20279hp%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20350Nm%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh250%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Family: wife, four children, 11 grandchildren, 16 great-grandchildren
Reads: Newspapers, historical, religious books and biographies
Education: High school in Thatta, a city now in Pakistan
Regrets: Not completing college in Karachi when universities were shut down following protests by freedom fighters for the British to quit India
Happiness: Work on creative ideas, you will also need ideals to make people happy
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amit%20Joshi%20and%20Aradhana%20Sah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECast%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shahid%20Kapoor%2C%20Kriti%20Sanon%2C%20Dharmendra%2C%20Dimple%20Kapadia%2C%20Rakesh%20Bedi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Andor
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tony%20Gilroy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDiego%20Luna%2C%20Genevieve%20O'Reilly%2C%20Alex%20Ferns%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%205%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
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