Oil prices rebounded on Friday but posted a third monthly decline in a row, capping a volatile trading session set off by reports that the US was ready to attack Venezuela.
Media reports claimed that Washington was prepared for an air strike against Opec's ninth-biggest producer, after the Pentagon said it had sent warships to the Caribbean and F-35 stealth warplanes to Puerto Rico, in addition to an aircraft carrier strike group en route to the Caribbean.
However, the Pentagon said the fleet was there to cut drug trafficking. US President Donald Trump denied an attack was imminent, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the reports were fake.
Earlier in the day, crude prices were trading lower on a weaker dollar and before an Opec+ meeting in which the production alliance is expected to increase output again.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, added 0.62 per cent to settle at $64.77 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, slipped 0.68 per cent to close at $60.98 a barrel.
On a weekly basis, Brent and WTI retreated nearly 1 per cent, after posting their biggest weekly gain since June last Friday.
From the end of September, they slipped 2 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively. Year-to-date, Brent has retreated more than 13 per cent, while WTI has slid about 15 per cent.
Opec+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, this month agreed to another output increase for November as the supergroup of oil producers continued to unwind production cuts put in place two years ago.
The group – which also includes the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – would be boosting production for the ninth month in a row as it focuses on regaining market share and supporting the growth of its economies.
The market is also keeping tabs on the effects of the latest western sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies over the Ukraine war, which have raised supply concerns.
Analysts, however, have previously told The National that the oil glut is “exaggerated” and demand continues to remain strong.
RBC Capital Markets expects Opec+ to opt for another modest 137,000 barrel-a-day increase for December despite the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil.
“While we think that the sanctions on the two Russian oil exporters will prove material if enforced, we do not think Saudi Arabia and its Opec partners would look to surge output before seeing clear evidence of supply disruption,” said Helima Croft of RBC.
“While the White House might like Saudi Arabia to accelerate the return of supply to the market, any move to do so would leave very thin spare capacity buffers to offset any additional outages.”
However, the new sanctions are unlikely to create a major supply shock as Russia is expected to continue to sell oil in global markets.
Between 500,000 to 600,000 bpd of Russian oil production is at risk of being curtailed following the US move, Rystad Energy estimates.
“If the Opec+ producers do indeed opt for another 137,000-bpd increase, the actual addition will be much smaller than the headline figure, as most of the producers are nearly maxed and Saudi Arabia is the only country with substantial spare capacity,” Ms Croft of RBC said.
Oil prices were also affected by the stronger dollar, boosted by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments that another interest rate cut was guaranteed in December, after the US central bank slashed rates again this week.
Crude prices were also hit by economic data from China, which indicated factory activity in the world's second-biggest economy had declined for a seventh consecutive month in October. China is the biggest importer of oil in the world.
“Supply should outstrip demand as Opec+ spare capacity returns, pressuring commodity prices and sector EPS [earnings per share],” analysts at Swiss bank Lombard Odier said.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Chinese Grand Prix schedule (in UAE time)
Friday: First practice - 6am; Second practice - 10am
Saturday: Final practice - 7am; Qualifying - 10am
Sunday: Chinese Grand Prix - 10.10am
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
2021 World Triathlon Championship Series
May 15: Yokohama, Japan
June 5: Leeds, UK
June 24: Montreal, Canada
July 10: Hamburg, Germany
Aug 17-22: Edmonton, Canada (World Triathlon Championship Final)
Nov 5-6 : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Date TBC: Chengdu, China
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
LAST-16 FIXTURES
Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
THE DETAILS
Kaala
Dir: Pa. Ranjith
Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar
Rating: 1.5/5
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
Tell Me Who I Am
Director: Ed Perkins
Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis
Four stars
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8
Power: 503hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 685Nm at 2,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Price: from Dh850,000
On sale: now
