Ma'aden shares fall amid delays


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Ma'aden shares fell the most in six months after the company delayed production from its phosphate plant to the second quarter of next year from the end of this year.

In a sharp reversal of fortune for the company, Ma'aden shares fell almost 10 per cent in intraday trading yesterday, ending an upward momentum that stretched back five months.

The state-run producer, also known as Saudi Arabian Mining Company, said it would put back the start of production at its Ras al Zour phosphate plant to the second quarter of next year from the fourth quarter of this year.

Ma'aden went public in 2008, raising 10.5 billion Saudi riyals to start two projects: a phosphate joint venture with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), the world's largest petrochemicals maker; and an aluminium joint venture with Alcoa.

It is attempting to enter the broad minerals farming sector and diversify beyond its current success as a gold miner, where it earns 95 per cent of its revenues.

But the stock closed 4.5 per cent down at 21.20 riyals yesterday.

While commercial production will start in the third quarter of next year, the delay will not incur additional costs, the company said in a statement to the Saudi exchange yesterday as it remained upbeat about the venture. Analysts, however, are not convinced by Ma'aden's strategy.

"The market is overexcited with the stock and this explains the negative reaction on the exchange," said Ahmed al Qahtani, an analyst at NCB Capital in Riyadh.

He said the company's current price was overvalued. He has an "underweight" rating on the stock and a target price of 16.80 riyals.

"It's very difficult with these large companies to meet deadlines. We assumed the plant would be operational in the third quarter of 2011 but there's obviously been a delay," he said.

Saudi Kayan, another unit of SABIC, has also announced delays in the construction of its 1.5 million tonnes per year capacity Al Jubail petrochemical complex until late next year.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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