Currency and commodity markets have remained range- bound so far this month with a dollar bias. The US dollar staged a modest recovery through the beginning of the month but was quick to pare its gains by the end of trading last week.
With attention turning to the US Federal Reserve and its decision on interest rates, expected on March 15, Bloomberg estimates a hike probability at 94 per cent, up from 40 per cent previously. The hawkish sentiment took the US dollar index upwards to 102.27. The gauge stood at 101.58 in trading yesterday.
On the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX), the British pound slipped to six-week lows at 1.2219 against the greenback, while gold also fell 1.85 per cent to US$1,230 levels through to the beginning of March.
With eyes on the Fed meeting at the end of next week, markets have almost fully priced in a hike. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group’s FedWatch Tool the chances of a hike by 75 to 100 basis points sits at 79.9 per cent, while a hike of 50 to 75 basis points stands at 20.3 per cent.
The recent run of US data would suggest the figures are with the Fed – inflation is growing, durable goods and earnings have shown improvement.
With a relatively light economic calendar this week, the feature will be this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.
February payrolls are expected to show gains of 190,000 new jobs in the headline number, with the overall unemployment rate expected to come in at 4.7 per cent.
I will closely watch the average hourly earnings, a key indicator of price growth, which is expected to improve by 0.3 per cent. With the recent run of weekly jobless claims coming in at monthly lows, I do not foresee any major downside surprises in the report and would expect to see another rally in the greenback if the gains are in excess of 200,000.
This could be the last final big push in the dollar rally before the federal open market committee (FOMC) convenes next Wednesday. Considering this, I maintain our upward resistance in the dollar index at 103.81 followed by 106.45.
While the rate hike is largely priced in, a move to the latter level may be all too ambitious as I expect to see some weakness in the dollar following confirmation of the rate hike and this could result in the US Dollar Index testing support at 99 levels before the end of March once sentiment settles down.
The Australian dollar has also been under pressure following the recent gains in the greenback.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia likely to keep rates unchanged at 1.5 per cent this morning I expect some further weakness in the A$ to $ cross in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s decision next week. Downside support would fall at 0.740 levels with upsides capped at 0.775 going forward.
Also due this week is the European Central Bank’s rate decision. I do not foresee any surprises when ECB president Mario Draghi addresses the media. The euro has gone through a slight renaissance against the dollar – up 0.56 per cent on the month – and upsides would be capped at 1.07 in this current move.
Gold also remains volatile and susceptible as a result of further strength in the dollar index. Almost 1 per cent lower on the month, gold could weaken to $1,180 before the end of this month.
Crude oil has also turned towards 2017 lows. DGCX’s March West Texas Intermediate contract has slipped below $53 levels. While the downsides in crude may be limited, I maintain my view to trigger long entries between $50.50 and $51 levels going forward.
With trading conditions expected to remain highly volatile, it would make sense to trigger fresh positions only after the FOMC decision on March 15.
Gaurav Kashyap is a forex trader based in Dubai
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Final round
25 under - Antoine Rozner (FRA)
23 - Francesco Laporta (ITA), Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA), Andy Sullivan (ENG), Matt Wallace (ENG)
21 - Grant Forrest (SCO)
20 - Ross Fisher (ENG)
19 - Steven Brown (ENG), Joakim Lagergren (SWE), Niklas Lemke (SWE), Marc Warren (SCO), Bernd Wiesberger (AUT)
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
MEYDAN CARD
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group One (PA) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.40pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm Singspiel Stakes Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
8.50pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
9.25pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group Two (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,600m
10pm Dubai Trophy Conditions (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
10.35pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
The National selections:
6.30pm AF Alwajel
7.05pm Ekhtiyaar
7.40pm First View
8.15pm Benbatl
8.50pm Zakouski
9.25pm: Kimbear
10pm: Chasing Dreams
10.35pm: Good Fortune
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2 (Heaton (og) 42', Lindelof 64')
Aston Villa 2 (Grealish 11', Mings 66')
Series information
Pakistan v Dubai
First Test, Dubai International Stadium
Sun Oct 6 to Thu Oct 11
Second Test, Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tue Oct 16 to Sat Oct 20
Play starts at 10am each day
Teams
Pakistan
1 Mohammed Hafeez, 2 Imam-ul-Haq, 3 Azhar Ali, 4 Asad Shafiq, 5 Haris Sohail, 6 Babar Azam, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed, 8 Bilal Asif, 9 Yasir Shah, 10, Mohammed Abbas, 11 Wahab Riaz or Mir Hamza
Australia
1 Usman Khawaja, 2 Aaron Finch, 3 Shaun Marsh, 4 Mitchell Marsh, 5 Travis Head, 6 Marnus Labuschagne, 7 Tim Paine, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Peter Siddle, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jon Holland
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Series result
1st ODI Zimbabwe won by 6 wickets
2nd ODI Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets
3rd ODI Sri Lanka won by 8 wickets
4th ODI Zimbabwe won by 4 wickets
5th ODI Zimbabwe won by 3 wickets
Paltan
Producer: JP Films, Zee Studios
Director: JP Dutta
Cast: Jackie Shroff, Sonu Sood, Arjun Rampal, Siddhanth Kapoor, Luv Sinha and Harshvardhan Rane
Rating: 2/5
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 0
Wolves 2 (Traore 80', 90 4')
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 611bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Price: upon application
On sale: now
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
Results:
Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
