Economists gave a mixed reaction to the official UAE economic growth forecast of up to 3.2 per cent this year, which was revealed yesterday by the Ministry of Economy.
The economy would expand by that rate if oil averaged a price of US$85 over the year, said Sultan al Mansouri, Minister of Economy.
"I think that 3.2 per cent for GDP growth is a little optimistic, unless there is a substantial increase in the level of oil production, which does not look likely," said John Sfakianakis, the chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi in Riyadh.
"I am sticking to my forecast of around 2 per cent, the bulk of that coming from Abu Dhabi and not from Dubai."
Speaking in Dubai at the launch of the UAE 2009 economic report, Mr al Mansouri said he was optimistic the UAE was recovering from the global financial slowdown.
"It [GDP] depends on what happens with the price of oil but it should settle between $80 and $85."
However, if oil averaged $75 for the year, GDP growth would be lower at about 2.5 per cent, he said. Oil was priced at $74 a barrel on Friday.
The report on the country's economic performance last year, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, said it expected oil demand to increase near the end of this year, which will help absorb excess supply and maintain prices between $75 and $85 a barrel.
"I think oil prices are an important factor but much more significant variables will be a resumption of credit growth, access to international funding and progress in reforms," said Simon Williams, the regional chief economist at HSBC. He said he expected lower growth of 2 per cent this year.
The IMF last week said it was standing by its growth forecast of 1.3 per cent for the UAE despite Dubai World's recent agreement on debt restructuring.
Record oil prices helped push GDP growth to 7.4 per cent in 2008 before the financial crisis sent crude prices down and triggered a downturn in the property sector.
The Ministry's report said the UAE's economy remained underpinned by oil prices and its efforts to diversify its non-oil economy into sectors such as trade, tourism and high-end manufacturing. The share of the non-oil sector of the economy rose from 66.5 per cent in 2008 to 71 per cent last year, it said.
"The economy must begin to diversify into service sectors, most notably into trade, logistics, tourism, financial services and high-value manufacturing," the report said.
Despite declining oil prices, the report said the economy avoided a recession to expand last year by 1.3 per cent, higher than some other estimates. The IMF estimated the economy shrunk by 0.7 per cent last year.
Mr al Mansouri said the IMF figures were not necessarily as accurate as the Ministry's.
"We would recommend that you take our figures," he said.
Given the global environment, the drop in oil production and the difficulties Dubai's economy experienced, a modest contraction in the UAE's GDP last year seemed likely, said Mr Williams.
Dubai World this month announced a $23.5bn (Dh86.31bn) restructuring deal with its main lenders, helping to address the emirate's most pressing debt problem. Dubai's debt is estimated at about $107bn, equivalent to 136 per cent of its GDP, according to the Institute of International Finance.
Dubai last year received $20bn from Abu Dhabi and the central bank to stabilise the economy after property prices fell by up to 50 per cent from their highs in 2008.
In response to growing demand from for hydrocarbons from Asia, the UAE planned to increase oil production, according to the report.
tarnold@thenational.ae
fkane@thenational.ae
The biog
Date of birth: 27 May, 1995
Place of birth: Dubai, UAE
Status: Single
School: Al Ittihad private school in Al Mamzar
University: University of Sharjah
Degree: Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Hobby: I enjoy travelling a lot, not just for fun, but I like to cross things off my bucket list and the map and do something there like a 'green project'.
MATCH INFO
Manchester United v Manchester City, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match is on BeIN Sports
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Baby Driver
Director: Edgar Wright
Starring: Ansel Elgort, Kevin Spacey, Jamie Foxx, Lily James
Three and a half stars
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
MATCH INFO
Day 2 at the Gabba
Australia 312-1
Warner 151 not out, Burns 97, Labuschagne 55 not out
Pakistan 240
Shafiq 76, Starc 4-52
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
7.05pm: Handicap Dh 185,000 2,000m
7.40pm: Maiden Dh 165,000 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap Dh 190,000 1,400m
8.50pm: Handicap Dh 175,000 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap Dh 175,000 1,200m
10pm: Handicap Dh 165,000 1,600m
Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species
Camelpox
Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.
Falconpox
Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.
Houbarapox
Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPOPC%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAmna%20Aijaz%2C%20Haroon%20Tahir%20and%20Arafat%20Ali%20Khan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eart%20and%20e-commerce%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%20u%3C%2Fstrong%3Endisclosed%20amount%20raised%20through%20Waverider%20Entertainment%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
No Shame
Lily Allen
(Parlophone)
Four tips to secure IoT networks
Mohammed Abukhater, vice president at FireEye in the Middle East, said:
- Keep device software up-to-date. Most come with basic operating system, so users should ensure that they always have the latest version
- Besides a strong password, use two-step authentication. There should be a second log-in step like adding a code sent to your mobile number
- Usually smart devices come with many unnecessary features. Users should lock those features that are not required or used frequently
- Always create a different guest network for visitors
Black Panther
Dir: Ryan Coogler
Starring: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o
Five stars
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800Nm%20at%202%2C750-6%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERear-mounted%20eight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E13.6L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Orderbook%20open%3B%20deliveries%20start%20end%20of%20year%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh970%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
Need to know
Unlike other mobile wallets and payment apps, a unique feature of eWallet is that there is no need to have a bank account, credit or debit card to do digital payments.
Customers only need a valid Emirates ID and a working UAE mobile number to register for eWallet account.
Heather, the Totality
Matthew Weiner,
Canongate
RESULT
Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')
MATCH STATS
Wolves 0
Aston Villa 1 (El Ghazi 90 4' pen)
Red cards: Joao Moutinho (Wolves); Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)
Man of the match: Emi Martinez (Aston Villa)
RESULTS
Welterweight
Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) beat Mostafa Radi (PAL)
(Unanimous points decision)
Catchweight 75kg
Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR) beat Leandro Martins (BRA)
(Second round knockout)
Flyweight (female)
Manon Fiorot (FRA) beat Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
(RSC in third round)
Featherweight
Bogdan Kirilenko (UZB) beat Ahmed Al Darmaki
(Disqualification)
Lightweight
Izzedine Al Derabani (JOR) beat Rey Nacionales (PHI)
(Unanimous points)
Featherweight
Yousef Al Housani (UAE) beat Mohamed Fargan (IND)
(TKO first round)
Catchweight 69kg
Jung Han-gook (KOR) beat Max Lima (BRA)
(First round submission by foot-lock)
Catchweight 71kg
Usman Nurmogamedov (RUS) beat Jerry Kvarnstrom (FIN)
(TKO round 1).
Featherweight title (5 rounds)
Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) v Alexandru Chitoran (ROU)
(TKO round 1).
Lightweight title (5 rounds)
Bruno Machado (BRA) beat Mike Santiago (USA)
(RSC round 2).
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THURSDAY FIXTURES
4.15pm: Italy v Spain (Group A)
5.30pm: Egypt v Mexico (Group B)
6.45pm: UAE v Japan (Group A)
8pm: Iran v Russia (Group B)