It has been a tempestuous start to 2022 for financial markets and we can expect more of the same as we head into the second half of January.
Expectations of monetary policy tightening against a backdrop of higher pricing pressures have resulted in the US Federal Reserve coming out with its most hawkish rhetoric yet. This has led to an increase in market volatility over the past few weeks.
US inflation pressures in December peaked at more than 40-year highs, data showed. The US consumer price index (CPI) – a measure of a weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services – increased by 0.5 per cent a month from November and by 7 per cent compared with a year ago.
The news only reinforced sentiment that the Fed will look to raise rates three times this year, with the first increase expected as early as its meeting in March. This confirmed the hawkish tilt by the Fed, which has all but dropped its “transitory inflation” lingo – the driving theme in 2021.
The effect has been felt in US stock markets. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones index was trading 1.5 per cent lower on the month while the S&P 500 index was lower by 2.55 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down by more than 5 per cent.
Traditionally, stock market volatility increases during high inflationary periods and growth stocks generally tend to be hit harder, compared with value stocks, as a function of higher prices eroding current cash flows, which are lower in the latter.
As we look ahead, we do not expect too many comments from the Fed in the run-up to its meeting on January 26.
I expect the turbulence to continue as we enter into the fourth-quarter earnings season. Amid higher-than-expected earnings, cyclical stocks should outperform their technology counterparts, in line with the earlier explanation.
Looking at the currency markets, the euro and the British pound have, thus far, turned in a positive performance against the US dollar this month.
The British pound benefited from the Bank of England’s interest rate increase last month. Technically, the sterling has looked to test the channel above 1.3750, which should then expose 1.40 levels.
Fundamentally, there is a lot of key data coming out on the UK calendar this week but all focus will be on Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey’s views on future rates when he is due to speak on Wednesday.
The euro moved higher against the US dollar, trading above 1.14 on the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX). I expect any further upward momentum to cease at 1.15 levels.
Commodity markets have performed well through the start of the year, headlined by strong crude oil prices.
The DGCX’s West Texas crude intermediary contract moved above $83 a barrel for the first time in two months and looks to test the more than seven-year high established in November 2021, above $85.
I expect the turbulence to continue as we enter into the fourth quarter earnings season
Gaurav Kashyap,
head of futures, EGM Futures
Finally, volatility continued in gold – prices have gyrated between $1,780 and $1,830 this month. With volatility expected to continue, look for this range to widen, with support coming in at the $1,740 level and upper resistance set to kick in above $1,870 on the DGCX.
Looking ahead, along with the Fed meeting on January 26, we await European inflation data on January 20 and the Bank of Canada rate decision and associated statement on January 26, too.
US gross domestic product figures will be released on January 27, with the country's economic output expected to have increased to 5.6 per cent quarter on quarter.
Gaurav Kashyap is head of futures at EGM Futures. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of EGM Futures
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Company%20Profile
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Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 258hp from 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
On sale: now
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
THE BIO
Favourite author - Paulo Coelho
Favourite holiday destination - Cuba
New York Times or Jordan Times? NYT is a school and JT was my practice field
Role model - My Grandfather
Dream interviewee - Che Guevara
FA%20Cup%20semi-final%20draw
%3Cp%3ECoventry%20City%20v%20Manchester%20United%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Chelsea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20Games%20to%20be%20played%20at%20Wembley%20Stadium%20on%20weekend%20of%20April%2020%2F21.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Top goalscorers in Europe
34 goals - Robert Lewandowski (68 points)
34 - Ciro Immobile (68)
31 - Cristiano Ronaldo (62)
28 - Timo Werner (56)
25 - Lionel Messi (50)
*29 - Erling Haaland (50)
23 - Romelu Lukaku (46)
23 - Jamie Vardy (46)
*NOTE: Haaland's goals for Salzburg count for 1.5 points per goal. Goals for Dortmund count for two points per goal.
STAR%20WARS%20JEDI%3A%20SURVIVOR
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Respawn%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electronic%20Arts%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PC%2C%20Playstation%205%2C%20Xbox%20Series%20X%20and%20S%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Directed by Sam Mendes
Starring Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel Mays
4.5/5
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Henderson, Pickford, Pope.
Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Dier, Gomez, Keane, Maguire, Maitland-Niles, Mings, Saka, Trippier, Walker.
Midfielders Henderson, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse, Winks.
Forwards Abraham, Barnes, Calvert-Lewin, Grealish, Ings, Kane, Rashford, Sancho, Sterling.
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
WIDE%20VIEW
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%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20has%20been%20moored%20off%20the%20Yemeni%20coast%20of%20Ras%20Issa%20since%201988.%3Cbr%3EThe%20Houthis%20have%20been%20blockading%20UN%20efforts%20to%20inspect%20and%20maintain%20the%20vessel%20since%202015%2C%20when%20the%20war%20between%20the%20group%20and%20the%20Yemen%20government%2C%20backed%20by%20the%20Saudi-led%20coalition%20began.%3Cbr%3ESince%20then%2C%20a%20handful%20of%20people%20acting%20as%20a%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.ae%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%26esrc%3Ds%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D%26ved%3D2ahUKEwiw2OfUuKr4AhVBuKQKHTTzB7cQFnoECB4QAQ%26url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.thenationalnews.com%252Fworld%252Fmena%252Fyemen-s-floating-bomb-tanker-millions-kept-safe-by-skeleton-crew-1.1104713%26usg%3DAOvVaw0t9FPiRsx7zK7aEYgc65Ad%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3Eskeleton%20crew%3C%2Fa%3E%2C%20have%20performed%20rudimentary%20maintenance%20work%20to%20keep%20the%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20intact.%3Cbr%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20is%20connected%20to%20a%20pipeline%20from%20the%20oil-rich%20city%20of%20Marib%2C%20and%20was%20once%20a%20hub%20for%20the%20storage%20and%20export%20of%20crude%20oil.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%E2%80%99s%20environmental%20and%20humanitarian%20impact%20may%20extend%20well%20beyond%20Yemen%2C%20experts%20believe%2C%20into%20the%20surrounding%20waters%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia%2C%20Djibouti%20and%20Eritrea%2C%20impacting%20marine-life%20and%20vital%20infrastructure%20like%20desalination%20plans%20and%20fishing%20ports.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE Premiership
Results
Dubai Exiles 24-28 Jebel Ali Dragons
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 43-27 Dubai Hurricanes
Fixture
Friday, March 29, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons, The Sevens, Dubai
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C020Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEarly%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh530%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
UAE%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Aryan%20Lakra%2C%20Ashwanth%20Valthapa%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20CP%20Rizwaan%2C%20Hazrat%20Billal%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%20and%20Zawar%20Farid.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadeera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERabih%20El%20Chaar%20and%20Reem%20Khattar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECleanTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHope%20Ventures%2C%20Rasameel%20Investments%20and%20support%20from%20accelerator%20programmes%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: JAP Almahfuz, Fernando Jara (jockey), Irfan Ellahi (trainer).
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Momtaz, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,400m
Winner: Yaalail, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh180,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Dahess D’Arabie, Fernando Jara, Helal Al Alawi.
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2.200m
Winner: Ezz Al Rawasi, Connor Beasley, Helal Al Alawi.
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
