Surging inflation is known as a “silent killer”, as it eats away the real value of your investments without you realising it. But it affects different asset classes in different ways.
So which assets protect you against inflation, and which ones will see their value eroded the fastest?
Stock market
Inflation is bad for business. Rising prices drive up company costs and make consumers feel poorer. The cost of servicing debt also rises, as central bankers increase interest rates in a bid to rein in price growth, even at the expense of triggering a recession.
It has been a bad year for investors, with US stocks falling into a bear market largely due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve will have to tighten its monetary policy.
Yet shares can also offer some inflationary protection to investors if they are patient, says Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell.
“Investors are essentially buying into the profits of companies and while their costs will rise with inflation, some will see their revenues rise, too.”
Companies with pricing power have an edge, as they can push some of their costs on to customers and even take the opportunity to increase margins.
US inflation hit 12 per cent in 1974 and the S&P 500 fell almost 40 per cent, says Nick Paisner, investment content manager at Cazenove Capital.
“The UK fared even worse, with the FTSE All-Share losing more than 70 per cent.”
Sky-high 1970s inflation eroded investor returns in a short period.
“Profits actually grew in nominal terms by 9 per cent a year during the 1970s, but fearing that the economic malaise would never end, the multiple that investors were willing to pay for those earnings roughly halved,” he adds.
Yet one stock market has stood firm in 2022: the FTSE 100 has fallen only 3.75 per cent this year to date, helped by its exposure to energy stocks such as oil companies BP and Shell, and commodity companies including Anglo American and Rio Tinto.
The index also pays generous dividends, currently yielding 3.7 per cent a year, Mr Khalaf says.
“This goes a small way to making up for inflation, before you add in any capital growth.”
Investors can track the FTSE 100 through an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as the iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF.
Investing in the spread of global stocks offers some protection through diversification and now may be a good time to buy while share prices are down, Mr Khalaf says. He tips the iShares MSCI World ETF.
Cash
It is a long time since people said “cash is king” and it is unlikely to regain its crown, with archenemy inflation at the gates.
Interest rate increases are feeding through to savings rates but returns of 2 per cent or 3 per cent offer little solace as inflation heads towards double digits. Savers are seeing the real value of their money fall faster than ever.
Everybody needs a pot of cash on instant access for emergencies, Mr Khalaf says.
“But for savings, you won’t need for five to 10 years or more, you’re still probably better off putting it into the stock market,” he adds.
“At today’s inflation rates, cash is much less appealing.”
If you are wedded to cash, shop around to get the best deal you can.
Bonds
Government and corporate bonds typically get hammered by inflation. They pay a fixed rate of income that looks a lot less attractive when prices and interest rates are rising, but bond prices have slumped alarmingly this year.
At the same time, government bond yields have risen sharply. Ten-year US Treasuries now yield 3.23 per cent, up from only 1.34 per cent a year ago.
They are effectively a form of insurance against rising inflation
Jason Hollands,
managing director at Evelyn Partners,
These rates are still deeply negative in real terms once inflation is factored in, says Jason Hollands, managing director at wealth managers Evelyn Partners.
“As bond markets adjust to this, prices have tumbled.”
Yet there is one type of bond that does offer inflation protection. In the US, they are known as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and index-linked bonds in the UK, Mr Hollands says.
“They are effectively a form of insurance against rising inflation but, like actual insurance, you need to put it in place before you need it rather than when problems arise.”
It is too late to buy them as protection against this year’s problems but they are something to consider when inflation eventually subsides.
“You can get exposure via ETFs, for example, the Lyxor Core US TIPS UCITS ETF,” Mr Hollands says.
Commodities
By contrast, commodities are a traditional inflation hedge. As prices rise, physical assets such as copper, iron ore, oil and gas rise, too.
Often, they drive the inflationary surge, as we have seen with oil and gas prices this year, Mr Hollands says.
But he urges caution to those tempted to invest in the commodity sector now.
“There are signs that inflation may be peaking, and the next big threat is a recession, when commodity prices will naturally slow as demand falls,” he says.
Property
The housing market tends to rise and fall with the ups and downs of the economy, says Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor.
“During a recession, house prices typically cool whereas during a boom, they can rocket,” Ms Scholar says.
“Higher interest rates push up mortgage costs, adding to the burden on potential buyers who are already struggling as the cost of everyday living soars, suppressing demand.”
Today’s troubles follow a long housing market boom fuelled by cheap money, with US property prices more than doubling in a decade, up 117 per cent to March 2022.
Prices look unaffordable, with the average UK property costing 9.1 times the average salary, against 3.55 times 25 years ago in 1997.
However, property has not crashed yet — and it didn’t in the 1970s, either. From 1970 to 1982, the median American house appreciated by 159 per cent, according to research by Robert Shiller, at a similar rate to consumer price inflation.
Property has a key role to play in a diversified portfolio during a period of inflation, Ms Scholar says.
“People always need somewhere to live, while yields and valuations still look attractive relative to other asset classes. It also offers diversification.”
Homeowners already have exposure to the property market and this may not be the ideal time to double down by buying an investment property.
A simpler option is to invest in commercial property, possibly through an ETF such as the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund or iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF.
Gold
Gold is said to be a store of value and inflation hedge, but the price has fallen 4.35 per cent over the past 12 months to $1,717.
Two factors are working against the precious metal. The first is rising interest rates, as gold pays no income, while rival low-risk assets such as cash and bonds now offer more.
The second is that gold is priced in US dollars and the rising value of the greenback is making it more expensive for buyers in other currencies, hitting demand.
Gold-backed ETFs experienced widespread outflows in August, across North America, Europe and Asia, says Adam Perlaky, senior analyst at World Gold Council.
“Flows correlated with gold price movements, amid a period where the Fed pushed rates to levels last seen during the global financial crisis and the dollar reached highs that we have not observed for nearly 20 years.”
Gold could shine again as recession fears grow, as it offers downside protection, Mr Perlaky adds.
“Historically, it has been one of the best-performing assets amid those market conditions.”
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
List of alleged parties
- May 15 2020: Boris Johnson is said to have attended a Downing Street pizza party
- 27 Nov 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
- Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
- Dec 13 2020: Mr Johnson and his then-fiancee Carrie Symonds throw a flat party
- Dec 14 2020: Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative Party headquarters
- Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
- Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014%20PRO%20MAX
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Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Dunki
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Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Squads
India: Kohli (c), Rahul, Shaw, Agarwal, Pujara, Rahane, Vihari, Pant (wk), Ashwin, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Shami, Umesh, Siraj, Thakur
West Indies: Holder (c), Ambris, Bishoo, Brathwaite, Chase, Dowrich (wk), Gabriel, Hamilton, Hetmyer, Hope, Lewis, Paul, Powell, Roach, Warrican, Joseph
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
Women%E2%80%99s%20T20%20World%20Cup%20Qualifier
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BOSH!'s pantry essentials
Nutritional yeast
This is Firth's pick and an ingredient he says, "gives you an instant cheesy flavour". He advises making your own cream cheese with it or simply using it to whip up a mac and cheese or wholesome lasagne. It's available in organic and specialist grocery stores across the UAE.
Seeds
"We've got a big jar of mixed seeds in our kitchen," Theasby explains. "That's what you use to make a bolognese or pie or salad: just grab a handful of seeds and sprinkle them over the top. It's a really good way to make sure you're getting your omegas."
Umami flavours
"I could say soya sauce, but I'll say all umami-makers and have them in the same batch," says Firth. He suggests having items such as Marmite, balsamic vinegar and other general, dark, umami-tasting products in your cupboard "to make your bolognese a little bit more 'umptious'".
Onions and garlic
"If you've got them, you can cook basically anything from that base," says Theasby. "These ingredients are so prevalent in every world cuisine and if you've got them in your cupboard, then you know you've got the foundation of a really nice meal."
Your grain of choice
Whether rice, quinoa, pasta or buckwheat, Firth advises always having a stock of your favourite grains in the cupboard. "That you, you have an instant meal and all you have to do is just chuck a bit of veg in."
'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press
BANGLADESH SQUAD
Mashrafe Mortaza (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Liton Das, Soumya Sarkar, Mushfiqur Rahim (wicketkeeper), Mahmudullah, Shakib Al Hasan (vice captain), Mohammad Mithun, Sabbir Rahaman, Mosaddek Hossain, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Rubel Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman, Abu Jayed (Reporting by Rohith Nair in Bengaluru Editing by Amlan Chakraborty)
Grand Slam Los Angeles results
Men:
56kg – Jorge Nakamura
62kg – Joao Gabriel de Sousa
69kg – Gianni Grippo
77kg – Caio Soares
85kg – Manuel Ribamar
94kg – Gustavo Batista
110kg – Erberth Santos
Women:
49kg – Mayssa Bastos
55kg – Nathalie Ribeiro
62kg – Gabrielle McComb
70kg – Thamara Silva
90kg – Gabrieli Pessanha
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
GCC-UK%20Growth
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: Eghel De Pine, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Sheaar, Szczepan Mazur, Saeed Al Shamsi
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA) Group 3 Dh500,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Torch, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (TB) Listed Dh380,000 1,600m | Winner: Forjatt, Chris Hayes, Nicholas Bachalard
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,400m | Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Ridha ben Attia
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 80,000 1,600m | Winner: Qader, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roaulle
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group B
Barcelona v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight
if you go
The flights
Emirates offer flights to Buenos Aires from Dubai, via Rio De Janeiro from around Dh6,300. emirates.com
Seeing the games
Tangol sell experiences across South America and generally have good access to tickets for most of the big teams in Buenos Aires: Boca Juniors, River Plate, and Independiente. Prices from Dh550 and include pick up and drop off from your hotel in the city. tangol.com
Staying there
Tangol will pick up tourists from any hotel in Buenos Aires, but after the intensity of the game, the Faena makes for tranquil, upmarket accommodation. Doubles from Dh1,110. faena.com
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Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Sunday's Super Four matches
Dubai, 3.30pm
India v Pakistan
Abu Dhabi, 3.30pm
Bangladesh v Afghanistan
Bio
Born in Dibba, Sharjah in 1972.
He is the eldest among 11 brothers and sisters.
He was educated in Sharjah schools and is a graduate of UAE University in Al Ain.
He has written poetry for 30 years and has had work published in local newspapers.
He likes all kinds of adventure movies that relate to his work.
His dream is a safe and preserved environment for all humankind.
His favourite book is The Quran, and 'Maze of Innovation and Creativity', written by his brother.
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Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
FOOTBALL TEST
Team X 1 Team Y 0
Scorers
Red card
Man of the Match
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
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Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Naga
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TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
When December 14-17
UAE Rugby finals day
Games being played at The Sevens, Dubai
2pm, UAE Conference final
Dubai Tigers v Al Ain Amblers
4pm, UAE Premiership final
Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons
