The world economy is set to face a recession, with inflation on the rise, geopolitical tensions spreading and the global supply chain still struggling to recover.
The probability of a soft landing is unlikely and two to three problematic quarters appear to be looming as central banks continue to increase interest rates to combat inflation.
However, that is not great news for riskier assets such as stocks.
____________
Watch: what is a recession?
The interest rate hikes have also affected bonds on the secondary market: their returns are now more palatable and their value has suffered a hit, but this has been reflected in the overall value of even the most cautious existing asset allocations
For more than a decade, stocks were on a bull run, fuelled by expansive monetary policies, both conventional and more “creative”, by central banks.
I’ve been critical of these policies as I believe that such a prolonged period of massive stimulus has created a situation in which it has only partly ended up in the real economy, ultimately “doping” the stock market — and all financial markets in general — beyond measure.
The cheap credit also created bubble-like situations in some real estate markets globally, which could, in turn, lead to issues for the banking sector.
In this scenario, wise investors may have continuously rebalanced their investment portfolios to take advantage of the stock market bull run to keep their desired risk exposure, resulting in a rising cash component.
However, it may not have been reallocated to the bond market, as extremely low interest rates typically don't encourage exposure to investment-grade bonds given the risk related to the rise in interest rates.
This ultimately ends with a manageable exposure to risky assets and reduced volatility of returns in the overall portfolio.
So, what must investors do now that stock markets are in bear territory? I believe central banks may have learnt a lesson and might seize the opportunity to normalise their policies, as they are doing with interest rates.
However, interest rates might be close to their peak, as we can see an uptick in unemployment data in the US and news of big players such as Facebook owner Meta planning massive layoffs making the headlines.
In the absence of further shocks on energy prices, this could also affect Consumer Price Index data, which is one of the most important indicators for central banks in their monetary policy decisions and lead them to slow down the pace of rising rates, or even bring them to a halt.
In this scenario, it makes sense to start buying bonds on primary markets in a buy-and-hold perspective and cherry pick bonds on the secondary market, even on a speculative approach.
Investors should consider building this component of their portfolios now — when interest rate rises start to slow, the market will react immediately.
As for the stock market, there are already some good buying opportunities in the technology sector, which has been among the biggest losers in 2022.
The excess of cash should be gradually reallocated to seize opportunities that financial markets are offering now and in the future.
Has the risky asset market bottomed? Can we move in and fill up the stock-related part of our portfolios?
I still think that there are downside risks to consider, especially if central banks don't indulge in any new “creative” monetary policies.
Therefore, we should resist the temptation of rushing into a buying frenzy to avoid exceeding our comfort zone in terms of risk tolerance.
That is closer to gambling than investing — and, more often than not, leads to disappointment.
Roberto d’Ambrosio is the chief executive of Axiory Global
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Race%20card
%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%201%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20%2450%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E6.35pm%3A%20Dubai%20Racing%20Club%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20%24100%2C000%20(D)%202%2C410m%3Cbr%3E7.10pm%3A%20Dubawi%20Stakes%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(TB)%20%24150%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E7.45pm%3A%20Jumeirah%20Classic%20Trial%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(TB)%20%24150%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E8.20pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%201%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(TB)%20%24250%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E8.55pm%3A%20Al%20Fahidi%20Fort%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(TB)%20%24180%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E9.30pm%3A%20Ertijaal%20Dubai%20Dash%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20%24100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C000m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
RACE RESULTS
1. Valtteri Bottas (FIN/Mercedes) 1hr 21min 48.527sec
2. Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari) at 0.658sec
3. Daniel Ricciardo (AUS/Red Bull) 6.012
4. Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes) 7.430
5. Kimi Räikkönen (FIN/Ferrari) 20.370
6. Romain Grosjean (FRA/Haas) 1:13.160
7. Sergio Pérez (MEX/Force India) 1 lap
8. Esteban Ocon (FRA/Force India) 1 lap
9. Felipe Massa (BRA/Williams) 1 lap
10. Lance Stroll (CAN/Williams) 1 lap
11. Jolyon Palmer (GBR/Renault) 1 lap
12. Stoffel Vandoorne (BEL/McLaren) 1 lap
13. Nico Hülkenberg (GER/Renault) 1 lap
14. Pascal Wehrlein (GER/Sauber) 1 lap
15. Marcus Ericsson (SWE/Sauber) 2 laps
16. Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Toro Rosso) 3 laps
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies direct from Dubai to Rio de Janeiro from Dh7,000 return including taxes. Avianca fliles from Rio to Cusco via Lima from $399 (Dhxx) return including taxes.
The trip
From US$1,830 per deluxe cabin, twin share, for the one-night Spirit of the Water itinerary and US$4,630 per deluxe cabin for the Peruvian Highlands itinerary, inclusive of meals, and beverages. Surcharges apply for some excursions.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
Schedule:
Pakistan v Sri Lanka:
28 Sep-2 Oct, 1st Test, Abu Dhabi
6-10 Oct, 2nd Test (day-night), Dubai
13 Oct, 1st ODI, Dubai
16 Oct, 2nd ODI, Abu Dhabi
18 Oct, 3rd ODI, Abu Dhabi
20 Oct, 4th ODI, Sharjah
23 Oct, 5th ODI, Sharjah
26 Oct, 1st T20I, Abu Dhabi
27 Oct, 2nd T20I, Abu Dhabi
29 Oct, 3rd T20I, Lahore
Jawan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAtlee%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Nayanthara%2C%20Vijay%20Sethupathi%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
US%20federal%20gun%20reform%20since%20Sandy%20Hook
%3Cp%3E-%20April%2017%2C%202013%3A%20A%20bipartisan-drafted%20bill%20to%20expand%20background%20checks%20and%20ban%20assault%20weapons%20fails%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20July%202015%3A%20Bill%20to%20require%20background%20checks%20for%20all%20gun%20sales%20is%20introduced%20in%20House%20of%20Representatives.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2012%2C%202016%3A%20Orlando%20shooting.%20Barack%20Obama%20calls%20on%20Congress%20to%20renew%20law%20prohibiting%20sale%20of%20assault-style%20weapons%20and%20high-capacity%20magazines.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20October%201%2C%202017%3A%20Las%20Vegas%20shooting.%20US%20lawmakers%20call%20for%20banning%20bump-fire%20stocks%2C%20and%20some%20renew%20call%20for%20assault%20weapons%20ban.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20February%2014%2C%202018%3A%20Seventeen%20pupils%20are%20killed%20and%2017%20are%20wounded%20during%20a%20mass%20shooting%20in%20Parkland%2C%20Florida.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20December%2018%2C%202018%3A%20Donald%20Trump%20announces%20a%20ban%20on%20bump-fire%20stocks.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20August%202019%3A%20US%20House%20passes%20law%20expanding%20background%20checks.%20It%20is%20not%20brought%20to%20a%20vote%20in%20the%20Senate.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20April%2011%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20announces%20measures%20to%20crack%20down%20on%20hard-to-trace%20'ghost%20guns'.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20May%2024%2C%202022%3A%20Nineteen%20children%20and%20two%20teachers%20are%20killed%20at%20an%20elementary%20school%20in%20Uvalde%2C%20Texas.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20June%2025%2C%202022%3A%20Joe%20Biden%20signs%20into%20law%20the%20first%20federal%20gun-control%20bill%20in%20decades.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The past winners
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2011 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2012 - Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2013 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2015 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 - Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khodar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cairo%20and%20Alexandria%2C%20in%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ayman%20Hamza%2C%20Yasser%20Eidrous%20and%20Amr%20El%20Sheikh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20agriculture%20technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Saudi%20Arabia%E2%80%99s%20Revival%20Lab%20and%20others%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEmployees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
The%20Little%20Mermaid%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rob%20Marshall%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHalle%20Bailey%2C%20Jonah%20Hauer-King%2C%20Melissa%20McCarthy%2C%20Javier%20Bardem%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000, 2,400m
Winner: Recordman, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000, 2,200m
Winner: AF Taraha, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000, 1,400m
Winner: Dhafra, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000, 1,400m
Winner: Maqam, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000, 1,600m
Winner: AF Momtaz, Fernando Jara, Musabah Al Muhairi
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000, 1,600m
Winner: Optimizm, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
