Many investors will be full of regrets after a volatile 2022, especially those who piled into risky assets at the top of the market in November last year, only for them to crash from inflated highs.
The investment world has been turned upside-down this year, and not only by the Russia-Ukraine war.
We have also seen an energy shock, ongoing Covid lockdowns in China and, most important of all from an investment point of view, the end of the cheap money era as inflation returns after more than 40 years.
That finally killed off the longest US bull market run in history, as a dozen years of near-zero interest rates and fiscal and monetary stimulus came to an abrupt end and interest rates increased.
Money is no longer available in cheap abundance and investors have to be more careful with it, wiping out frothier corners of the market.
Perhaps a bigger shock is that safe-haven asset classes crashed, too. So, there is plenty to regret, but more to look forward to next year.
US tech
The US S&P 500 enjoyed a terrific decade, as tech companies Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and Google-owner Alphabet turned into trillion-dollar companies. Or, in the case of Apple, Microsoft and (very briefly) Google, $2 trillion companies.
However, this year saw the S&P 500 drop more than a quarter into bear market territory, with the Nasdaq down a third.
Amazon, Netflix and Tesla have lost half their value this year, with Facebook (now renamed Meta Platforms) plunging two thirds.
Investors buy growth companies to share in their future profits, but when inflation explodes, it erodes the value of those earnings in real terms making them less attractive.
The outlook for US tech in 2023 now rests on consumer prices and interest rate movements, says Joshua Mahony, senior market analyst at online trading platform IG.
“Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google have all made gains lately, but those same names may be hit hard if inflation proves difficult to control,” he adds.
Equity markets now present a buying opportunity, says Stéphane Monier, chief investment officer at Swiss private bank Lombard Odier.
“As inflation and the threat of higher rates begin to fade, stock valuations and multiples will benefit.”
Easing financial conditions will boost sentiment and investors will start to look ahead for a cyclical recovery in 2024, he says.
Regret ratio: surprisingly low.
The bull run had to end at some point and long-term investors in US tech should still be nicely ahead. Tesla stock is still up 585 per cent over five years. Over 10 years, it has soared 6,869 per cent.
Watch: Why is everything so expensive right now?
Emerging markets
War in Ukraine, soaring energy prices, lockdowns in China, a global recession and the strong US dollar were tough on emerging markets, which fell 17.43 per cent in the year to November 30, according to MSCI.
Yet, Mr Monier expects emerging equities to rebound once the US Federal Reserve “pivots” on interest rates. They may outperform developed markets as international investor appetite and confidence returns.
Regret ratio: low.
Everybody knew emerging markets were risky. The recovery will come.
Crypto
Hardcore crypto investors don’t do regret. Like most cults, any setbacks are typically seen as another step towards the promised land.
Even Bitcoin’s crash from $67,000 to $16,500 has not dimmed enthusiasm for this largely useless asset class. Nor has the collapse of FTX and arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried on fraud and conspiracy charges.
Bitcoin actually rose on the news, as crypto investors saw this as another step towards regulation and respectability.
Crypto will continue to lurch from feast to famine, says Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell.
The proliferation of coins and crypto ecosystems has been funded by a wall of blank cheque money that will be harder to come by as interest rates rise
Laith Khalaf,
head of investment analysis, AJ Bell
“The proliferation of coins and crypto ecosystems has been funded by a wall of blank cheque money that will be harder to come by as interest rates rise.”
Regret ratio: not as high as it should be.
Anybody who bought into the idea of a Bitcoin being “digital gold” should be seething with regrets after this year’s crash. If crypto investors do not realise the risks they are taking, there is no hope for them.
US dollar
Nobody will regret holding the US dollar this year. At the time of writing, it is up more than 7 per cent against the euro, Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars, almost 10 per cent against sterling and nearly 20 per cent against the Japanese yen.
The greenback is the ultimate safe haven and it has been given a further boost by the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening.
“It remains head and shoulders above the rest of the major currencies thanks to the Fed’s hawkish stance and a relatively stronger US economy,” says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and Forex.
The Fed has lifted its funds rate from 0.5 per cent to 4.4 per cent, giving investors a better return.
Watch: US Federal Reserve chief warns of 'pain' in reducing inflation
As long as inflation and interest rates stay high, so will the dollar, Mr Razaqzada says.
“The Fed will have to be quite dovish to cause the dollar to sell off significantly further from current levels.”
Regret ratio: zero.
The US dollar will inevitably fall when inflation eases. It’s had a great run, though.
Gold
Gold is supposed to be the ultimate “no regrets” investment because of its safe-haven status and reputation as a hedge against inflation, but this year it has been hugely disappointing.
After peaking at $2,074.60 on March 8, the gold price slumped below $1,700 in September and had recovered slightly to trade at $1,775 at the time of writing.
Gold is priced in US dollars and greenback strength has made it more expensive for buyers in other currencies, hitting demand, as have China's lockdowns.
Also, gold does not pay interest, while rival safe-haven cash does.
The Fed will have to be quite dovish to cause the dollar to sell off significantly further from current levels
Fawad Razaqzada,
market analyst, City Index and Forex
Gold could regain some of its lost appeal this year, says Mr Monier. “With lower rates, a weaker US dollar, and a reopening China, the price should rise.”
Regret ratio: surprisingly high.
Gold has been a store of value for more than 4,000 years, but not this year. It is worth retaining some exposure as a portfolio wild card.
Cash
After more than a decade of near-zero returns, cash is now flying with rates of 4 per cent a year or more now available, with no risk.
However, inflation is flying much higher, so the value of your holdings will still be falling in real terms.
Regret ratio: low.
Everybody should hold some cash and it's great news that savers are finally getting a return on their money. It still isn't a home for long-term wealth, though.
Bonds
Investors expect equities to crash. Bonds, not so much. Especially by up to 20 per cent as happened this year.
Bonds could be back next year, says Kathy Jones, fixed income chief at Charles Schwab.
“After years of low yields followed by a brutal drop in prices during 2022, returns appear poised to rebound. Bonds may now provide attractive yields at lower risk than we have seen for several years.”
Ms Jones warns that it may still be “a bumpy ride” depending on “global central banks’ tightening policies, a volatile global economy and ongoing political uncertainty”.
Regret ratio: fairly high.
Bond investors expect to be shielded from volatility, rather than exposed to it. Yet, today could prove an attractive buying opportunity.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20Znap%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarted%3A%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFounder%3A%20Uday%20Rathod%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIndustry%3A%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%241m%2B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EInvestors%3A%20Family%2C%20friends%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gertrude Bell's life in focus
A feature film
At one point, two feature films were in the works, but only German director Werner Herzog’s project starring Nicole Kidman would be made. While there were high hopes he would do a worthy job of directing the biopic, when Queen of the Desert arrived in 2015 it was a disappointment. Critics panned the film, in which Herzog largely glossed over Bell’s political work in favour of her ill-fated romances.
A documentary
A project that did do justice to Bell arrived the next year: Sabine Krayenbuhl and Zeva Oelbaum’s Letters from Baghdad: The Extraordinary Life and Times of Gertrude Bell. Drawing on more than 1,000 pieces of archival footage, 1,700 documents and 1,600 letters, the filmmakers painstakingly pieced together a compelling narrative that managed to convey both the depth of Bell’s experience and her tortured love life.
Books, letters and archives
Two biographies have been written about Bell, and both are worth reading: Georgina Howell’s 2006 book Queen of the Desert and Janet Wallach’s 1996 effort Desert Queen. Bell published several books documenting her travels and there are also several volumes of her letters, although they are hard to find in print. Original documents are housed at the Gertrude Bell Archive at the University of Newcastle, which has an online catalogue.
Tips for avoiding trouble online
- Do not post incorrect information and beware of fake news
- Do not publish or repost racist or hate speech, yours or anyone else’s
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- Do not defame anyone. Have a difference of opinion with someone? Don’t attack them on social media
- Do not forget your children and monitor their online activities
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
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The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
RESULTS
Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
Bio:
Favourite Quote: Prophet Mohammad's quotes There is reward for kindness to every living thing and A good man treats women with honour
Favourite Hobby: Serving poor people
Favourite Book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite food: Fish and vegetables
Favourite place to visit: London
Aquaman%20and%20the%20Lost%20Kingdom
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20James%20Wan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jason%20Mamoa%2C%20Patrick%20Wilson%2C%20Amber%20Heard%2C%20Yahya%20Abdul-Mateen%20II%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ACC 2019: The winners in full
Best Actress Maha Alemi, Sofia
Best Actor Mohamed Dhrif, Weldi
Best Screenplay Meryem Benm’Barek, Sofia
Best Documentary Of Fathers and Sons by Talal Derki
Best Film Yomeddine by Abu Bakr Shawky
Best Director Nadine Labaki, Capernaum
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh289,000
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
West Asia Premiership
Thursday
Jebel Ali Dragons 13-34 Dubai Exiles
Friday
Dubai Knights Eagles 16-27 Dubai Tigers
RESULTS
5pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Purebred Arabian Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Winked, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Cup Listed (TB) Dh 380,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Boerhan, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
6.30pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Group 3 (PA) Dh 500,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Jewel Crown Group 1 (PA) Dh 5,000,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Messi, Pat Dobbs, Timo Keersmaekers
7.30pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Handicap (PA) Dh 150,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Harrab, Ryan Curatolo, Jean de Roualle
8pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alareeq, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
Breast cancer in men: the facts
1) Breast cancer is men is rare but can develop rapidly. It usually occurs in those over the ages of 60, but can occasionally affect younger men.
2) Symptoms can include a lump, discharge, swollen glands or a rash.
3) People with a history of cancer in the family can be more susceptible.
4) Treatments include surgery and chemotherapy but early diagnosis is the key.
5) Anyone concerned is urged to contact their doctor
