US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to keep the door open to leaving policy tools on the cards in case inflation doesn’t recede as quick as expectations to the target 2 per cent range. AP
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to keep the door open to leaving policy tools on the cards in case inflation doesn’t recede as quick as expectations to the target 2 per cent range. AP
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to keep the door open to leaving policy tools on the cards in case inflation doesn’t recede as quick as expectations to the target 2 per cent range. AP
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to keep the door open to leaving policy tools on the cards in case inflation doesn’t recede as quick as expectations to the target 2 per cent rang

Why US jobs data and June inflation rate may weigh on the Fed’s outlook


Gaurav Kashyap
  • English
  • Arabic

Markets have sewn up June in bullish fashion, capping a strong first half of 2023 in style.

For the fourth consecutive month, June saw gains aplenty in US equities – with the S&P 500 rising by 6 per cent to take its year-to-date gains above 15 per cent.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index saw similar gains last month and is now up more than 38 per cent on the year.

With so much of the recent fundamentals driven by a slowing US inflation story and a resilient US jobs market, the risk-on mood has never been higher this year.

Just last week, the Price Consumption Expenditures price index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – came in below analysts’ estimates and sparked expectations that there may be as little as two remaining rate hikes left in 2023, with the next hike almost all but delivered at the upcoming meeting in July.

US jobs, starting with weekly jobless claims and filtering through to the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, continue to show a hot labour market, which amid the backdrop of the slowing inflation story, suggests markets are now seeing recessionary threats receding.

All these factors have contributed to solid green arrows across riskier asset classes – and July will be key to gauging how realistic and sustainable the gains will be.

It’s been a shortened trading week as a result of the US Independence Day celebrations, but we will have some key pieces of data in the lead-up to the next Fed meeting this month.

It starts with this Friday’s US jobs report. June payrolls are expected to grow by 225,000 (versus 339,000 in May), while the overall unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.7 per cent. Annual growth in average hourly earnings, a decent gauge on US inflation, is expected to slow to 4.2 per cent, compared with 4.3 per cent in May.

I expect some gains in the labour market, which would suggest the resilience in new jobs added to continue.

Short term, this will be supportive of equities and riskier assets on the day. However, with eyes on the next Fed meeting, to be held on July 25-26, this will further entrench the notion that employment is still running hot and the Fed would be more comfortable with overall unemployment to be in excess of 4 per cent.

The next key piece of data before the Fed convenes and announces rates on July 26 is the US consumer price inflation print, due on July 12. Year on year, the CPI increased by 4 per cent in May, while core prices rose by 5.3 per cent annually.

Keep a close eye on how these numbers pan out – clearly inflation is not cooling fast enough – and if we see prints close to the May figures, this could see a slight hawkish tilt, with more caution in the Fed announcement.

These two pieces of data are critical to the Fed’s decision. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool has an 89.9 per cent probability that the Fed will deliver another 25 basis-point hike to take overall rates in the US to a band of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

While this is almost a certainty, dissecting their comments – especially with the two data points discussed earlier having been released – will help gauge price action through the end of July and August.

It is my expectation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remain cautious and he should keep the door open to leaving policy tools on the cards in case inflation doesn’t recede as quick as expectations to their target 2 per cent range.

With the end of the second quarter in the books, earnings season is set to kick off this Friday, with the usual banking giants JP Morgan, Citibank and Wells Fargo set to announce. Tech majors Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon will follow with their results from July 25.

Markets are currently positioning for an anaemic reporting season. Following an average fall of 2 per cent in earnings per share for the S&P 500 during the first quarter, the EPS losses are expected to exacerbate in the second quarter, with some expecting to see drops of more than 5 per cent when compared with the same period last year.

While the negative story around EPS and slowing revenues are largely priced in, it will be more critical to pay attention to what these companies have to say about future guidance.

Gaurav Kashyap is risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

England v South Africa schedule:

  • First Test: At Lord's, England won by 219 runs
  • Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
  • Third Test: The Oval, London, July 27-31, 2pm
  • Fourth Test: Old Trafford, Manchester, August 4-8
Indoor cricket in a nutshell

Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai

16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side

8 There are eight players per team

There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.

5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls

Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership

Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.

Zones

A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs

B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run

Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs

Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full

SERIE A FIXTURES

All times UAE ( 4 GMT)

Saturday
Roma v Udinese (5pm) 
SPAL v Napoli (8pm)
Juventus v Torino (10.45pm)

Sunday
Sampdoria v AC Milan (2.30pm)
Inter Milan v Genoa (5pm)
Crotone v Benevento (5pm)
Verona v Lazio (5pm)
Cagliari v Chievo (5pm)
Sassuolo v Bologna (8pm)
Fiorentina v Atalanta (10.45pm)

Wicked: For Good

Director: Jon M Chu

Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater

Rating: 4/5

The Farewell

Director: Lulu Wang

Stars: Awkwafina, Zhao Shuzhen, Diana Lin, Tzi Ma

Four stars

Dhadak 2

Director: Shazia Iqbal

Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri 

Rating: 1/5

The specs

Price, base / as tested Dh12 million

Engine 8.0-litre quad-turbo, W16

Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch auto

Power 1479 @ 6,700rpm

Torque 1600Nm @ 2,000rpm 0-100kph: 2.6 seconds 0-200kph: 6.1 seconds

Top speed 420 kph (governed)

Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Tips for entertaining with ease

·         Set the table the night before. It’s a small job but it will make you feel more organised once done.

·         As the host, your mood sets the tone. If people arrive to find you red-faced and harried, they’re not going to relax until you do. Take a deep breath and try to exude calm energy.

·         Guests tend to turn up thirsty. Fill a big jug with iced water and lemon or lime slices and encourage people to help themselves.

·         Have some background music on to help create a bit of ambience and fill any initial lulls in conversations.

·         The meal certainly doesn’t need to be ready the moment your guests step through the door, but if there’s a nibble or two that can be passed around it will ward off hunger pangs and buy you a bit more time in the kitchen.

·         You absolutely don’t have to make every element of the brunch from scratch. Take inspiration from our ideas for ready-made extras and by all means pick up a store-bought dessert.

 

Simran

Director Hansal Mehta

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey

Three stars

The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry

Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000

Engine: 3.5-litre V6

Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic

Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm

Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km

RACE SCHEDULE

All times UAE ( 4 GMT)

Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm

Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm

Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm

How to vote

Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.

They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi

Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday) 

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021

Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.

The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.

These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.

“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.

“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.

“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.

“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”

Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.

There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.

“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.

“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.

“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”

Shubh Mangal Saavdhan
Directed by: RS Prasanna
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Bhumi Pednekar

UK%20record%20temperature
%3Cp%3E38.7C%20(101.7F)%20set%20in%20Cambridge%20in%202019%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to avoid crypto fraud
  • Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
  • Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
  • Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
  • Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
  • Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
  • Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
  • Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Series info

Test series schedule 1st Test, Abu Dhabi: Sri Lanka won by 21 runs; 2nd Test, Dubai: Play starts at 2pm, Friday-Tuesday

ODI series schedule 1st ODI, Dubai: October 13; 2nd ODI, Abu Dhabi: October 16; 3rd ODI, Abu Dhabi: October 18; 4th ODI, Sharjah: October 20; 5th ODI, Sharjah: October 23

T20 series schedule 1st T20, Abu Dhabi: October 26; 2nd T20, Abu Dhabi: October 27; 3rd T20, Lahore: October 29

Tickets Available at www.q-tickets.com

Stat Fourteen Fourteen of the past 15 Test matches in the UAE have been decided on the final day. Both of the previous two Tests at Dubai International Stadium have been settled in the last session. Pakistan won with less than an hour to go against West Indies last year. Against England in 2015, there were just three balls left.

Key battle - Azhar Ali v Rangana Herath Herath may not quite be as flash as Muttiah Muralitharan, his former spin-twin who ended his career by taking his 800th wicket with his final delivery in Tests. He still has a decent sense of an ending, though. He won the Abu Dhabi match for his side with 11 wickets, the last of which was his 400th in Tests. It was not the first time he has owned Pakistan, either. A quarter of all his Test victims have been Pakistani. If Pakistan are going to avoid a first ever series defeat in the UAE, Azhar, their senior batsman, needs to stand up and show the way to blunt Herath.

Previous men's records
  • 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
  • 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
  • 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
  • 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
  • 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
  • 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
  • 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
  • 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
  • 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
  • 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin

TV (UAE time);

OSN Sports: from 10am

Hydrogen: Market potential

Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.

"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.

Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.

The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.

INDIA SQUADS

India squad for third Test against Sri Lanka
Virat Kohli (capt), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Shikhar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Wriddhiman Saha, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Vijay Shankar

India squad for ODI series against Sri Lanka
Rohit Sharma (capt), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Siddarth Kaul

Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street

The seven points are:

Shakhbout bin Sultan Street

Dhafeer Street

Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)

Salama bint Butti Street

Al Dhafra Street

Rabdan Street

Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)

ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Infiniti QX50

Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 268hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy: 6.7L / 100km (estimate)

The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo

Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm

Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km

Price: from Dh285,000

On sale: from January 2022 

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm

Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km

Price: from Dh94,900

On sale: now

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

RESULT

Chelsea 2

Willian 13'

Ross Barkley 64'

Liverpool 0

Summer special

Managing the separation process

  • Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
  • Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
  • Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
  • If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
  • The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
  • Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
  • Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.  
Brief scoreline:

Burnley 3

Barnes 63', 70', Berg Gudmundsson 75'

Southampton 3

Man of the match

Ashley Barnes (Burnley)

La Mer lowdown

La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
 

MATCH INFO

Iceland 0 England 1 (Sterling pen 90 1)

Man of the match Kari Arnason (Iceland)

The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year

Correspondents

By Tim Murphy

(Grove Press)

RESULTS

Dubai Kahayla Classic – Group 1 (PA) $750,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Deryan, Ioritz Mendizabal (jockey), Didier Guillemin (trainer).
Godolphin Mile – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
Dubai Gold Cup – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (Turf) 3,200m
Winner: Subjectivist, Joe Fanning, Mark Johnston
Al Quoz Sprint – Group 1 (TB) $1million (T) 1,200m
Winner: Extravagant Kid, Ryan Moore, Brendan Walsh
UAE Derby – Group 2 (TB) $750,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner: Rebel’s Romance, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
Dubai Golden Shaheen – Group 1 (TB) $1.5million (D) 1,200m
Winner: Zenden, Antonio Fresu, Carlos David
Dubai Turf – Group 1 (TB) $4million (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord North, Frankie Dettori, John Gosden
Dubai Sheema Classic – Group 1 (TB) $5million (T) 2,410m
Winner: Mishriff, John Egan, John Gosden

Updated: July 05, 2023, 4:00 AM