For a dozen years after the financial crisis, stocks and shares were the only game in town, as years of easy money sent asset prices to the moon and cash paid next to nothing.
Over the past 18 months, the investment world has flipped, with investors embarking on a “dash for cash” as interest rates rise, while shares struggle as inflation squeezes spending and growth.
The US may be enjoying a bull market but that has been driven purely by the hype around the artificial intelligence revolution, which now seems to have got out of hand.
Investors have been piling into the “magnificent seven” US tech mega-caps – Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla – but strip them out of the S&P 500 and the index is up only 5.6 per cent this year, while hopes that the Chinese stock market will recover have floundered.
A growing number of investors are now asking why they should put their capital on the line amid today’s slim pickings when they can get 5 per cent or 6 per cent a year on cash deposits without taking any risks at all.
Cash returns look set to improve as the US Federal Reserve and other banks intensify the fight against inflation by raising rates even higher.
The Fed held its funds rate at 5.25 per cent in June but markets are now pricing in a 90 per cent likelihood of a rate increase at its next meeting on July 25 and 26, with its recently published minutes suggesting at least one further rise to follow this year, and possibly more.
It may be forced to tighten as the US jobs market continues to boom, with payrolls data repeatedly beating expectations, says Fawad Razaqazda, market analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
“Will that trend continue? If it does, interest rates will likely rise and remain higher for longer,” he says.
As far as equities are concerned, the best is already in for 2023, says Nadege Dufosse, global head of multi-asset at fund manager Candriam.
Emerging Asia may perform well but otherwise “restrictive monetary policies should continue to spread throughout the economies of developed countries, and inflation is likely to decelerate only gradually”, she says.
Saxo chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen says investors are “naive” about growth prospects while the AI hype has gone too far.
“The economy is currently loaded with excess debt and asset valuations are at all-time highs. A soft landing is very unlikely in this environment,” he says.
Many have responded to the changing environment by shunning stock markets and seeking safety in cash and money market funds, which offer a portfolio of short-term cash deposits, money market instruments and high-quality bonds, according to Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International.
“As interest rates rise, money market funds represent an attractive return for risk-averse investors for the first time in years,” he says.
They appeal to investors who are concerned about market volatility, saving for a short-term goal or looking for somewhere to park their cash while deciding where to invest next, he adds.
Yet money market funds could make a poor long-term investment as Mr Stevenson suggests that “returns have lagged behind shares and bonds over more extended periods”.
Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at fund platform AJ Bell, says cash and money market funds may look attractive today but history shows that over the long run, stocks remain the better bet.
“Barclays has analysed UK investment returns since 1899 and found that over a 10-year period, shares beat cash 90 per cent of the time,” he says.
Jason Hollands, managing director at fund platform Bestinvest, says while higher interest rates are a headwind for equities, cash still pays less than inflation, eroding the value of deposits in real terms.
“Cash looks superficially attractive but holding too much for long periods will only make you worse off over time.”
With cash, savers only earn the headline interest rate while shares offer both capital growth and dividend income, which compound to deliver a superior total return over time, Mr Hollands says.
Instead of hiding in cash, he advises savers to increase their exposure to bonds, where yields have been rising strongly.
In the US, two-year Treasuries now yield more than 5 per cent a year while two-year UK gilts yield about 5.5 per cent.
While two-year fixed-rate savings bonds may offer a slightly better return, you cannot access your money in that time, he says.
“In contrast, you could sell your bonds at any time if you need some cash.”
Rather than buying individual government bonds, investors can have access to a spread of them through an exchange-traded fund such as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, which focuses on investment-grade US bonds and with a trailing 30-day yield of 4.4 per cent.
Mr Hollands suggests we may soon reach “peak cash” as central banks in the US, the UK and Europe approach the end of the current tightening cycle.
“Interest rates are likely to fall next year as inflation abates and these economies sink into recession caused by aggressive policy tightening,” he says.
As interest rates rise, money market funds represent an attractive return for risk-averse investors for the first time in years
Tom Stevenson,
Fidelity International's investment director
When that day arrives, returns on cash will fall while lower borrowing costs should revive stock markets.
Mr Hollands is also wary of AI hype and expects Asia and emerging markets to lead the stock market recovery.
Today, he tips lower-risk sectors such as health care, consumer staples and materials as the economy looks set to struggle for a while longer.
Cash is back and about time, too. Savers have had a rotten deal for years and it is good to see the imbalance redressed.
But investors should not give up on shares yet. At some point, later this year or in early 2024, they are expected to flip back into favour, and those who are brave enough to buy them today will be rewarded when they do.
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
Zombieland: Double Tap
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Stars: Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone
Four out of five stars
If%20you%20go
%3Cp%3E%0DThere%20are%20regular%20flights%20from%20Dubai%20to%20Addis%20Ababa%20with%20Ethiopian%20Airlines%20with%20return%20fares%20from%20Dh1%2C700.%20Nashulai%20Journeys%20offers%20tailormade%20and%20ready%20made%20trips%20in%20Africa%20while%20Tesfa%20Tours%20has%20a%20number%20of%20different%20community%20trekking%20tours%20throughout%20northern%20Ethiopia.%20%20The%20Ben%20Abeba%20Lodge%20has%20rooms%20from%20Dh228%2C%20and%20champions%20a%20programme%20of%20re-forestation%20in%20the%20surrounding%20area.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SHOW COURTS ORDER OF PLAY
Wimbledon order of play on Tuesday, July 11
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Centre Court
Adrian Mannarino v Novak Djokovic (2)
Venus Williams (10) v Jelena Ostapenko (13)
Johanna Konta (6) v Simona Halep (2)
Court 1
Garbine Muguruza (14) v
Svetlana Kuznetsova (7)
Magdalena Rybarikova v Coco Vandeweghe (24)
More coverage from the Future Forum
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Results
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Aatebat Al Khalediah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Avenue, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: My Catch, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
Emirates exiles
Will Wilson is not the first player to have attained high-class representative honours after first learning to play rugby on the playing fields of UAE.
Jonny Macdonald
Abu Dhabi-born and raised, the current Jebel Ali Dragons assistant coach was selected to play for Scotland at the Hong Kong Sevens in 2011.
Jordan Onojaife
Having started rugby by chance when the Jumeirah College team were short of players, he later won the World Under 20 Championship with England.
Devante Onojaife
Followed older brother Jordan into England age-group rugby, as well as the pro game at Northampton Saints, but recently switched allegiance to Scotland.
'I Want You Back'
Director:Jason Orley
Stars:Jenny Slate, Charlie Day
Rating:4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Moonfall
Director: Rolan Emmerich
Stars: Patrick Wilson, Halle Berry
Rating: 3/5
ARSENAL IN 1977
Feb 05 Arsenal 0-0 Sunderland
Feb 12 Manchester City 1-0 Arsenal
Feb 15 Middlesbrough 3-0 Arsenal
Feb 19 Arsenal 2-3 West Ham
Feb 26 Middlesbrough 4-1 Arsenal (FA Cup)
Mar 01 Everton 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 05 Arsenal 1-4 ipswich
March 08 Arsenal 1-2 West Brom
Mar 12 QPR 2-1 Arsenal
Mar 23 Stoke 1-1 Arsenal
Apr 02 Arsenal 3-0 Leicester
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Formula One top 10 drivers' standings after Japan
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 306
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 234
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 192
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 148
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 111
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 82
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 65
9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 48
10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 34
Company profile
Company name: Dharma
Date started: 2018
Founders: Charaf El Mansouri, Nisma Benani, Leah Howe
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: TravelTech
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investors: Convivialite Ventures, BY Partners, Shorooq Partners, L& Ventures, Flat6Labs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20May%2028%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESunday%2C%20May%2029%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ETuesday%2C%20May%2031%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3EWednesday%2C%20June%201%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%203%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%204%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAhmed%20Raza%20(captain)%2C%20Chirag%20Suri%2C%20Muhammad%20Waseem%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20CP%20Rizwan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Kashif%20Daud%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20Akif%20Raja%2C%20Rahul%20Bhatia%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETable%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Oman%2032%2019%2011%2040%20%2B0.156%3Cbr%3E2.%20Scotland%2016%2011%203%2024%20%2B0.574%3Cbr%3E3.%20UAE%2018%2010%206%2022%20%2B0.22%3Cbr%3E4.%20Namibia%2014%207%207%2014%20%2B0.096%3Cbr%3E5.%20United%20States%2016%207%209%2014%20-0.229%3Cbr%3E6.%20Nepal%2012%206%206%2012%20%2B0.113%3Cbr%3E7.%20Papua%20New%20Guinea%2020%201%2019%202%20-0.856%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Dodge Durango SRT
Price, base / as tested: Dh259,000
Engine: 6.4-litre V8
Power: 475hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 640Nm @ 4,300rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'The Lost Daughter'
Director: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Starring: Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson
Rating: 4/5
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Stage result
1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34
2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe
3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers
4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco
5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo
6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ
7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team
8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma
9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux
10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate
Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
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A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
The%20Beekeeper
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDavid%20Ayer%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJason%20Statham%2C%20Josh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Emmy%20Raver-Lampman%2C%20Minnie%20Driver%2C%20Jeremy%20Irons%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
