We all knew the Magnificent Seven US mega-cap tech companies couldn't shoot the lights out forever.
The only question was when they’d be knocked off their saddles. The answer appears to be right now.
Global stock markets are crashing, and Big Tech is at the heart of it.
Suddenly, instead of anticipating a soft economic landing, investors are panicking over the prospect of a hard one, as the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates in August backfires.
Recession fears have rocketed after last week’s feeble US manufacturing and job data, and disappointing earnings from Amazon, Apple and Intel.
Fears of escalation in the Middle East have added to the sense of dread plunging markets into “absolute turmoil”, says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG.
“In two days, markets went from looking forward to a September rate cut in a growing economy to fretting about an impending recession.”
Asian, European and UK markets are plunging but this sell-off is made in the US, Mr Beauchamp says.
“We're likely to have a summer of volatility ahead of us.”
The next Fed rate-setting meeting is not due until September 17, six weeks away.
The Fed may have to double down with a 50-basis point cut, but Mr Beauchamp says: “Even this may be too little, too late.”
Money markets are pricing in a 60 per cent probability of an emergency Fed cut. While this could stem the rout, it might also spook investors further, by suggesting US policymakers have lost control of events.
At the time of writing, artificial intelligence chip maker Nvidia’s shares are still up 136 per cent over one year and a scarcely believable 2,686 per cent over five.
Now they’re falling fast and the rest of the Mag 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla) are being trampled in the stampede to sell.
The panic has brought into focus a second question that investors have been asking. When Big Tech finally falls, will smaller companies take its place?
Smaller company performance is highly cyclical. They tend to grow faster when the economy is booming and investors are ready to take on more risk but are first in line for a beating when markets crash.
Inflation hits smaller companies relatively hard as they typically borrow more to fund their operations and face higher bills when interest rates rise.
Also, rising prices reduce the value of their future earnings in real terms.
If the Fed does speed up rate cuts, that process could reverse in their favour.
The Great Rotation, as it has been called, began in July as overvalued Big Tech slipped while undervalued small caps revived, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial in Dubai.
“The rotation reflects a growing belief in smaller companies as market conditions shift, particularly in the financial, biotechnology and energy sectors.”
The Russell 2000 Index of US smaller companies jumped 10.1 per cent in July, its biggest monthly gain since December.
July is typically a good month for the S&P 500 but this year it grew just 1.1 per cent, its worst July performance in 10 years. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8 per cent, which also marked its worst July in a decade.
Many expect smaller companies to enjoy a further lift if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins November's presidential election, Mr Valecha says.
“Mr Trump has proposed cutting corporate tax from 21 per cent to 15 per cent and curbing the influence of financial regulators. Both would be particularly advantageous for small caps,” he adds.
However, it would take a brave investor to pile into the sector right now.
The Great Rotation is now hanging in the balance, with the Russell 2000 falling almost as fast as the S&P 500, as investors dump all they can in a race for the exits.
“High-quality large-cap companies typically have stronger balance sheets and proven resilience, making them relatively more attractive in a dip,” Mr Valecha says.
Tony Hallside, chief executive at Dubai-based brokers STP Partners, says overlooked small caps have much to offer, including greater agility, higher growth prospects and the opportunity to tap into niche markets and emerging industries, but it’s important to strike a balance.
“Diversification remains key. Rather than switching horses entirely, investors should maintain a diversified portfolio that leverages the strengths of both Big Tech and smaller companies,” he says.
Charu Chanana, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank, is also sceptical about making a big sector shift right now.
“The idea of dumping tech stocks in favour of smaller companies is an intriguing one. But it’s not really about one or the other.”
The idea of dumping tech stocks in favour of smaller companies is an intriguing one. But it’s not really about one or the other
Charu Chanana,
head of FX strategy, Saxo Bank
Investors must remember that the smaller companies sector “largely comprises unprofitable companies”, she says.
“Investing in high-quality stocks with strong fundamentals and a defensive positioning is key to hedge against the risk of a broader market downturn.”
However, Mohamed Hashad, chief market strategist at Noor Capital, still favours smaller companies and says the market cycle may finally shift back in their favour once the current panic eases.
“Tech giants have enjoyed substantial growth but as dominant players, they face major challenges, while smaller companies offer the potential for disruptive innovation.”
Many investors will have outsize exposure to Big Tech and should consider plugging gaps in their portfolios by investing in smaller businesses.
“Rebalancing allows one to seize opportunities while mitigating potential downsides,” he says.
For those who think small is beautiful in today’s climate, Mr Hashad highlights the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF, which provides exposure to developed markets outside the US.
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF could balance that by targeting emerging markets.
For those who want US exposure, Mr Valecha highlights the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, Invesco S&P SmallCap Financials ETF and Invesco S&P SmallCap Health Care ETF.
When the dust settles on today's turmoil, investors have a decision to make. Some will continue to think big by taking advantage of reduced Mag 7 valuations.
Others may decide they’ve gone too large and it’s time to think small instead. As ever, it's probably best to get a bit of both.
John%20Wick%3A%20Chapter%204
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chad%20Stahelski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Keanu%20Reeves%2C%20Laurence%20Fishburne%2C%20George%20Georgiou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Equinox
Price, base / as tested: Dh76,900 / Dh110,900
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder
Gearbox: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 252hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: Torque: 352Nm @ 2,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.5L / 100km
MATCH INFO
English Premiership semi-finals
Saracens 57
Wasps 33
Exeter Chiefs 36
Newcastle Falcons 5
yallacompare profile
Date of launch: 2014
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Silent Hill f
Publisher: Konami
Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC
Rating: 4.5/5
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20ASI%20(formerly%20DigestAI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Quddus%20Pativada%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Artificial%20intelligence%2C%20education%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%243%20million-plus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GSV%20Ventures%2C%20Character%2C%20Mark%20Cuban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Bio
Born in Dibba, Sharjah in 1972.
He is the eldest among 11 brothers and sisters.
He was educated in Sharjah schools and is a graduate of UAE University in Al Ain.
He has written poetry for 30 years and has had work published in local newspapers.
He likes all kinds of adventure movies that relate to his work.
His dream is a safe and preserved environment for all humankind.
His favourite book is The Quran, and 'Maze of Innovation and Creativity', written by his brother.
The specs: 2018 Harley-Davidson Fat Boy
Price, base / as tested Dh97,600
Engine 1,745cc Milwaukee-Eight v-twin engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 78hp @ 5,250rpm
Torque 145Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.0L / 100km (estimate)
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Results
2.30pm: Park Avenue – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 2,000m; Winner: Rb Seqondtonone, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
3.05pm: Al Furjan – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Bosphorus, Dane O’Neill, Bhupat Seemar
3.40pm: Mina – Rated Condition (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Royal Mews, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
4.15pm: Aliyah – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,900m; Winner: Ursa Minor, Ray Dawson, Ahmad bin Harmash
4.50pm: Riviera Beach – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 2,200m; Winner: Woodditton, Saif Al Balushi, Ahmad bin Harmash
5.25pm: Riviera – Handicap (TB) Dh2,000 (T) 2,000m; Winner: Al Madhar, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
6pm: Creek Views – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Al Salt, Dane O’Neill, Erwan Charpy
UAE'S%20YOUNG%20GUNS
%3Cp%3E1%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20age%2026%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E2%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20age%2020%2C%2066%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E3%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20age%2021%2C%2065%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E4%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20age%2021%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E5%20Heena%20Hotchandani%2C%20age%2023%2C%2016%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E6%20Rinitha%20Rajith%2C%20age%2018%2C%2034%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E7%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20age%2017%2C%2053%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E8%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%2C%20age%2017%2C%2068%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E9%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20age%2017%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E10%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20age%2018%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E11%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20age%2018%2C%2046%20matches%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGrowdash%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJuly%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESean%20Trevaskis%20and%20Enver%20Sorkun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERestaurant%20technology%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Plus%20VC%2C%20Judah%20VC%2C%20TPN%20Investments%20and%20angel%20investors%2C%20including%20former%20Talabat%20chief%20executive%20Abdulhamid%20Alomar%2C%20and%20entrepreneur%20Zeid%20Husban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Wales 1 (Bale 45 3')
Croatia 1 (Vlasic 09')
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Zayed Sustainability Prize
ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre, 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: CVT
Power: 170bhp
Torque: 220Nm
Price: Dh98,900
RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Samau Xmnsor, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Ottoman, Szczepan Mazur, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Sharkh, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 85,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Yaraa, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Maaly Al Reef, Bernardo Pinheiro, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Jinjal, Fabrice Veron, Ahmed Al Shemaili
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Al Sail, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
