Since my previous column detailing US President Donald Trump’s tariff illogic, two US trade “deals” plus talks have materialised. Many pundits point to these as “proof” that Mr Trump’s tariff chaos is solely leverage for deal making and freer trade ahead.
Slow down. While no one can read Mr Trump’s mind, don’t overstate his talk or actions’ positive impacts. Endless tariff flip-flopping chiefly fans rising uncertainty, which stocks always hate – hurting America worst. Let me show you – and where to uncover opportunities.
First, you may not believe it, but stocks are intermediate and longer-term truthtellers, particularly big moves and spreads. Through May 23, non-US stocks returned 13.7 per cent this year in USD. China’s gained 16.3 per cent, Europe 19.6 per cent and Mexico 29.1 per cent! Booming! And the US’s S&P 500? Down 1 per cent. Striking lag!
Seen differently: Of the 47 MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) countries, America’s return fell from first over 2023-2024 to 43rd this year. A stunning shift.
What happened? Mr Trump’s on, off, back and forth whipsawing vacillations made funds flee America. Tariffs always hammer the imposing country most.
Stocks know attempts to reduce trade deficits are senseless. A trade deficit means a capital account surplus by definition – that capital is foreign investment into America. Why is reversing that desirable? Why is the government intervening on prior successes – versus letting free markets sort out the most efficient use of capital – positive? How is policy that changes on a whim good?
Stocks know it is bad. Stocks’ truth-telling shows you exactly that. Markets weigh reality, not efforts aimed at discerning Mr Trump’s “true” goals.
What “deals” have emerged since April 9? Looking past Mr Trump’s boastful bluster, only two materialised – Britain and China. Both are fluff. Britain’s is a one-year, non-binding, cancellable agreement to mitigate a few tariffs until a full trade deal can happen – maybe. A deal to make a deal! It affects only a handful of industries. Crucially, Mr Trump’s 10 per cent tariff remains on most UK goods.
The China deal impresses, but only because expectations were incredibly low. Yes, it cuts 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 per cent, while China dropped retaliatory levies from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. Yet it lasts only 90 days – buying time – another deal to make a deal! Plus, tariffs on China remain 30 percentage points higher than in January. Both countries remain impaired, especially the US.
Then, on May 16, Mr Trump boasted 150 nations now sought “deals”. Flip-flopping again, he says there isn’t time to negotiate them. His “solution?” Simply telling nations “soon” what rates they must pay – and perhaps offering chances to appeal.
Didn’t he already do just that on April 2’s “Liberation Day?” How did that work? Badly! How will this work? Will rates be higher or lower than after April 2? He hasn’t said, further fanning uncertainty.
Days later, he threatened the EU with new 50 per cent tariffs – and 25 per cent on Apple products – only to flip again days later, postponing EU tariffs through July 9 after plans to fast-track trade talks emerged.
Does this show Mr Trump’s talk and actions are somehow clever? That he plays 4D chess while we all play checkers? No! No one wins from crazy vacillations or the higher tariff “deals” so far delivered.
Meanwhile, legal challenges to Mr Trump’s tariffs progress maybe killing some of this. And maybe real deals come, actually lowering trade barriers and uncertainty – a huge potential upside. Maybe not.
But as my last column said, even if all tariffs return, the pain will be less than feared – bullish.
Importers can readily skirt America’s understaffed, overwhelmed tariff-collecting Customs and Border Protection staff through illegal and legal means.
The latter include “tariff splitting” – stripping out services-related costs like marketing to reduce goods’ values – or storing imports in bonded warehouses. Or shipping in values under $800, skipping tariffs. And myriad illegal ways like misclassifying and undervaluing goods.
Exporters can “tranship” or re-export through lower tariff nations. Hence, China’s April exports grew despite shipments to America tumbling 21 per cent. South-east Asia absorbed the difference – shipping them on. This drove surges in April re-exports to America – like Singapore’s 113 per cent year-on-year spike! Vietnam and Taiwan enjoy similar surges.
Manufacturers can even reship through Canada or Mexico, gaming the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement tariff exemption. Chinese middlemen advertise such services on TikTok!
Hence, while Uncle Sam’s April total tariff collections rose, they missed administration forecasts by 75 per cent. That will persist.
The good news? Tariff fear exceeds reality, especially outside America. That is bull market fuel – helping non-US stocks maintain their leadership, particularly in Canadian, Chinese and Mexican markets – and in Europe, as I predicted on February 3.
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai
Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:
• Dubai Marina
The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104
• Downtown
Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure. “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154
• City Walk
The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena. “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210
• Jumeirah Lake Towers
Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941
• Palm Jumeirah
Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.
Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152
Stage result
1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34
2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe
3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers
4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco
5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo
6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ
7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team
8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma
9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux
10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate
Company info
Company name: Entrupy
Co-founders: Vidyuth Srinivasan, co-founder/chief executive, Ashlesh Sharma, co-founder/chief technology officer, Lakshmi Subramanian, co-founder/chief scientist
Based: New York, New York
Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.
Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius.
Total customers: Entrupy’s customers include hundreds of secondary resellers, marketplaces and other retail organisations around the world. They are also testing with shipping companies as well as customs agencies to stop fake items from reaching the market in the first place.
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
The biog
Simon Nadim has completed 7,000 dives.
The hardest dive in the UAE is the German U-boat 110m down off the Fujairah coast.
As a child, he loved the documentaries of Jacques Cousteau
He also led a team that discovered the long-lost portion of the Ines oil tanker.
If you are interested in diving, he runs the XR Hub Dive Centre in Fujairah
T20 World Cup Qualifier A, Muscat
Friday, February 18: 10am - Oman v Nepal, Canada v Philippines; 2pm - Ireland v UAE, Germany v Bahrain
Saturday, February 19: 10am - Oman v Canada, Nepal v Philippines; 2pm - UAE v Germany, Ireland v Bahrain
Monday, February 21: 10am - Ireland v Germany, UAE v Bahrain; 2pm - Nepal v Canada, Oman v Philippines
Tuesday, February 22: 2pm – semi-finals
Thursday, February 24: 2pm – final
UAE squad: Ahmed Raza (captain), Muhammad Waseem, Chirag Suri, Vriitya Aravind, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Alishan Sharafu, Raja Akifullah, Karthik Meiyappan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Zafar Farid, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Rahul Bhatia
All matches to be streamed live on icc.tv
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sav%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Purvi%20Munot%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%20as%20of%20March%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
What is dialysis?
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20ASI%20(formerly%20DigestAI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Quddus%20Pativada%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Artificial%20intelligence%2C%20education%20technology%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%243%20million-plus%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GSV%20Ventures%2C%20Character%2C%20Mark%20Cuban%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
South Africa squad
Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wicketkeeper), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wicketkeeper), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
The%20Iron%20Claw
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sean%20Durkin%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Zac%20Efron%2C%20Jeremy%20Allen%20White%2C%20Harris%20Dickinson%2C%20Maura%20Tierney%2C%20Holt%20McCallany%2C%20Lily%20James%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tell Me Who I Am
Director: Ed Perkins
Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis
Four stars
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Thor: Ragnarok
Dir: Taika Waititi
Starring: Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Cate Blanchett, Jeff Goldblum, Mark Ruffalo, Tessa Thompson
Four stars
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Fitness problems in men's tennis
Andy Murray - hip
Novak Djokovic - elbow
Roger Federer - back
Stan Wawrinka - knee
Kei Nishikori - wrist
Marin Cilic - adductor
Habib El Qalb
Assi Al Hallani
(Rotana)
THE DETAILS
Deadpool 2
Dir: David Leitch
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin, Justin Dennison, Zazie Beetz
Four stars
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Scoreline
Arsenal 3
Aubameyang (28'), Welbeck (38', 81')
Red cards: El Neny (90' 3)
Southampton 2
Long (17'), Austin (73')
Red cards: Stephens (90' 2)
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
Asia Cup Qualifier
Final
UAE v Hong Kong
Live on OSN Cricket HD. Coverage starts at 5.30am
