Even though evidence is mounting that the US economy may soon be heading into a recession, there are plenty of analysts who say the surge in credit card borrowing is a sign of strong confidence among households.
That's hardly the case. In fact, US households' confidence in the future growth of their incomes has been cooling since late last summer, which means borrowers will only reach for what’s in their wallet to compensate for what their paycheques will not cover.
Many working adults have no recollection of credit card borrowing not being a mainstay among their financing options. But then, few would be able to identify a Diners Club card, which was a popular brand during the 1980s "yuppie" era when Americans first began to embrace credit card spending in earnest. These days, consumers are not keen to lean on credit cards, partly due to a cultural and financial shift in the industry.
The financial crisis arguably altered households’ views on charging beyond their means. It didn’t hurt that the availability of subprime credit all but disappeared for a few years or that the interest rate on credit cards remained in double-digit territory despite the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy. That said, the idea of frugality re-entered many households’ thinking in the wake of the severe hardship the foreclosure crisis brought to bear on millions of working Americans. Debit cards became the predominant form of plastic used at the checkout.
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And yet, consumer credit likely rounded out 2019 at a new $4 trillion milestone as runaway higher education and car-price inflation coupled with ridiculously looser lending standards pushed households to take on record levels of student loan and auto debt. At roughly $1 trillion, credit cards are but a co-star in a star-studded, full-length feature film. A long history of credit card borrowing suggests that we would have multiples of today’s $1.04 billion in outstanding balances had the growth rate of spending on plastic maintained the headier double-digit paces clocked in the 1980s and 1990s.
Several factors worked to slow the rate of credit card usage, few of which were virtuous. The past several recoveries were characterised as “jobless” due to the prolonged period required to recapture prior cycle highs in the employment-to-population ratio and anaemic wage growth that persisted in such environments. And while credit card spending certainly held up during the years the housing bubble was inflating, households didn’t have to lean nearly as hard on plastic when their homes had infamously become de facto ATM machines.
The question is where credit card borrowing goes from here in view of the deteriorating economic outlook. August marked the high in income expectations as measured by Conference Board data. If history is precedent, there will be a rush to tap available credit as households become increasingly aware that the economy is headed into recession.
Layoff announcements began rising on an annualised basis in August. And the quits rate, as measured by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, peaked in August. Former Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, a labour economist by training, was known to lean heavily on the quits rate, which rises as workers gain increased confidence in the availability of jobs. And finally, confidence among small businesses, which we know are the largest source of job creation, also peaked in August. There is a pattern.
You may note that the effective personal income tax rate - defined as the taxes paid on income, including realised net capital gains and on personal property - has tended to move up alongside credit card borrowing with two exceptions in the history depicted. The 1980s and the current episode are marked by falling income taxes, hence the decline in this tax rate ahead of recession. It’s intuitive that this holistic tax rate also rises as stocks rally throughout an expansion and declines into recession as the swing factor of capital gains drives the marginal moves.
Add it all up and it’s likely that any rush to "charge it" will be a last gasp as income expectations continue to decline and eventually cross lines with credit card borrowing. The closer we get to recession, the more desperate a sign credit card borrowing is anything but a reflection on strengthening in household finances. Households wouldn’t be reporting that they expect their incomes to rise less if that was the case.
Danielle DiMartino Booth is the author of Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America
* Bloomberg
MAIN CARD
Bantamweight 56.4kg
Abrorbek Madiminbekov v Mehdi El Jamari
Super heavyweight 94 kg
Adnan Mohammad v Mohammed Ajaraam
Lightweight 60kg
Zakaria Eljamari v Faridoon Alik Zai
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Mahmood Amin v Taha Marrouni
Light welterweight 64.5kg
Siyovush Gulmamadov v Nouredine Samir
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Ilyass Habibali v Haroun Baka
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Episode list:
Ep1: A recovery like no other- the unevenness of the economic recovery
Ep2: PCR and jobs - the future of work - new trends and challenges
Ep3: The recovery and global trade disruptions - globalisation post-pandemic
Ep4: Inflation- services and goods - debt risks
Ep5: Travel and tourism
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 0
Liverpool 2 (Mane 50', 54')
Red card: Andreas Christensen (Chelsea)
Man of the match: Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.
"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.
"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."
Profile Periscope Media
Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)
Launch year: 2020
Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021
Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year
Investors: Co-founders
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 3 (Son 1', Kane 8' & 16') West Ham United 3 (Balbuena 82', Sanchez og 85', Lanzini 90' 4)
Man of the match Harry Kane
RESULTS
Bantamweight
Victor Nunes (BRA) beat Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)
(Split decision)
Featherweight
Hussein Salim (IRQ) beat Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)
(Round 1 submission, armbar)
Catchweight 80kg
Rashed Dawood (UAE) beat Otabek Kadirov (UZB)
(Round-1 submission, rear naked choke)
Lightweight
Ho Taek-oh (KOR) beat Ronald Girones (CUB)
(Round 3 submission, triangle choke)
Lightweight
Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) beat Damien Lapilus (FRA)
(Unanimous points)
Bantamweight
Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) beat Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)
(Round 1 TKO)
Featherweight
Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)
(Round 1 rear naked choke)
Flyweight
Shannon Ross (TUR) beat Donovon Freelow (USA)
(Unanimous decision)
Lightweight
Dan Collins (GBR) beat Mohammad Yahya (UAE)
(Round 2 submission D’arce choke)
Catchweight 73kg
Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM) beat Islam Mamedov (RUS)
(Round 3 submission, kneebar)
Bantamweight world title
Xavier Alaoui (MAR) beat Jaures Dea (CAM)
(Unanimous points 48-46, 49-45, 49-45)
Flyweight world title
Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)
(Round 1 RSC)
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
RESULTS
1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner AF Almomayaz, Hugo Lebouc (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer)
2pm Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Karaginsky, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Sadeedd, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard.
3pm Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner Blue Sovereign, Clement Lecoeuvre, Erwan Charpy.
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Bladesmith, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
FINAL SCORES
Fujairah 130 for 8 in 20 overs
(Sandy Sandeep 29, Hamdan Tahir 26 no, Umair Ali 2-15)
Sharjah 131 for 8 in 19.3 overs
(Kashif Daud 51, Umair Ali 20, Rohan Mustafa 2-17, Sabir Rao 2-26)
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
THE POPE'S ITINERARY
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
