You may not remember it, but stock markets actually started 2020 in relatively good shape, until the Covid-19 pandemic struck and everything went haywire.
Share prices crashed in March by up to a third as the world economy went into lockdown, only to recover as the US Federal Reserve and other central bankers flooded the world with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Investors and speculators piled in as liquidity fears eased, driving markets to new highs.
Markets seem to be in a holding state for now, as investors are wary of buying ahead of a possible second crash and three major questions hanging over the global economy. These are: will we see a second wave of the pandemic? Can stimulus save us again? And can President Donald Trump win a second term when the US goes to the polls on November 3?
The answers to these questions will dictate where share prices move over the second half of the year.
Will we see a second wave of Covid-19?
There is plenty of talk about whether we will get a second wave of the coronavirus, but the truth is we aren't done with the first one yet.
World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says the virus is not under control in most of the world and is actually "getting worse".
More than 14 million people have been infected worldwide so far, with more than 600,000 dead, according to Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking the virus. On Friday, the US reported a world record 77,300 new infections in a single day, while infections in Brazil shot past two million, and one million in India.
Jim Leaviss, fixed income specialist at fund manager M&G Investments, says countries are reopening their economies to limit the financial fallout only to discover that there is a price to pay. “In the absence of a vaccine, an acceleration of Covid-19 cases is almost inevitable."
He remains optimistic, though, as treatments improve and countries learn to shield the most vulnerable. “Most developed economies should return to some form of normality,” Mr Leaviss says.
Unemployment is the biggest worry – and the impact on consumption. In the US, unemployment is up by 12 million. In the UK, the government is paying the salaries of an incredible nine million workers, more than a quarter of the workforce.
The drop in global travel and trade and social distancing nervousness make hopes of a V-shaped recovery “difficult to support”, Mr Leaviss adds.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the pandemic is reversing globalisation as “the world is being driven by self-interest, distrust and a game of us versus them”, and this will prove painful.
Global supply chains will be dragged back home as countries look to be self-sufficient in key industries, driving up prices. “This will be extremely expensive for the consumer, for governments and for jobs,” he says.
Despite all-out stimulus, Mr Garnry says markets remain fragile with a "very volatile summer” in store.
Brave contrarian investors may find opportunities in Europe, where share prices look cheaper than the overvalued US, or in defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples and utility stocks, Mr Garnry says.
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, says markets are in this for the long haul, as countries reimpose lockdowns to contain a surge in new cases. “Virus infections could ebb and flow for up to five years,” he says.
Mr Paolini also favours European equities, saying they "trade on cheaper multiples” than many markets, but is wary of the overpriced US.
China was the first country to be gripped by the virus, and among the first to open up. Although it has seen a second wave of infections, David Chao, global market strategist, Asia-Pacific at fund manager Invesco, says these have been quickly quashed, with minimal economic impact. "China is not out of the woods, but households will most likely step up their purchasing in the second half of the year.”
Mr Chao welcomes the recent correction as “a healthy return to reality" and suggests using further share price weakness as a buying opportunity.
Can more stimulus save the day?
The scale of this year’s downturn is brutal. Mr Paolini says consensus figures suggest a 20 per cent drop in company profitability this year, but he predicts a bigger fall of between 30 and 40 per cent.
Despite the hellish figure, he believes stock markets can avoid a second crash because “central banks are committed to containing the damage".
Globally, fiscal and monetary stimulus is now estimated to total $14 trillion (Dh51.42tn) – and counting.
Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial in Dubai, says the Fed balance sheet alone could touch $10tn by the end of the year, and this should power a recovery. “Some of the forward looking data indicates that real economic growth is likely to pick up in the second half of the year,” he says.
Mr Valecha does not rule out another stock market dip, but says that would be an opportunity to buy stocks with the aim of holding them for the longer term.
In the longer run, he says there are grounds to be positive: “If we get a Covid-19 vaccine by the end of the year, this would shore up consumer confidence."
There is danger, however, in relying on the Fed to bail investors out once again. Russ Mould, investment director of online investment platform AJ Bell, says the Fed is actually shrinking its balance sheet. It has just slipped below $7tn, after four successive weekly cuts. “Perhaps the Fed is becoming nervous amid fresh talk of bubbles, especially in the big US technology stocks,” says Mr Mould.
Few doubt the Fed will splurge again, if required. Central bankers are effectively propping up today’s stock markets.
That gives investors peace of mind, but how long can such a situation last?
Politics will also play a part
The politically divided US has another issue to face this year, as Donald Trump fights to avoid becoming the first one-term President since George Bush Senior, who lost to Democrat Bill Clinton in the 1992 election.
Mr Trump may be controversial and politically divisive, but Mr Valecha says markets want him to win again and volatility could increase as November looms. “Democratic candidate Joe Biden is seen as negative for equities due to his stated policy of reversing Trump’s tax cuts,” he says.
Tom Stevenson, investment director at fund manager Fidelity International, says Mr Biden would be both good and bad for investors: “His presidency would be less chaotic, but arguably less business and market-friendly too."
Patrik Lang, head of equities and global equity strategy at Julius Baer, says the threat posed by Mr Biden has been overdone: “In our view, a victory for Joe Biden would only have a moderate impact on equity markets, as S&P 500 earnings for 2021 would probably remain unchanged.”
While higher taxes could slow business growth, he says: “This would be largely offset by increased infrastructure spending, a rise in the minimum wage, and a general boost in consumer spending.”
Renewable energy stocks may be a potential winner from a Democratic presidency, while materials and oil and gas stocks could lose, Mr Lang says.
"A Mr Biden victory is already partially priced into markets," he adds. "We see further upside for eurozone equities but continue to prefer the US due to better earnings growth perspectives.”
Of the three major issues facing investors, the US election is the least alarming. Right now, the pandemic and how we respond is the number one concern by far.
History shows that times of uncertainty like these are the most rewarding to invest, provided you build a diversified portfolio of investments that you are willing to hold for the long-term.
These days, that means at least 10 years. Preferably much, much longer.
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Planes grounded by coronavirus
British Airways: Cancels all direct flights to and from mainland China
Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific: Cutting capacity to/from mainland China by 50 per cent from Jan. 30
Chicago-based United Airlines: Reducing flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong
Ai Seoul: Suspended all flights to China
Finnair: Suspending flights to Nanjing and Beijing Daxing until the end of March
Indonesia's Lion Air: Suspending all flights to China from February
South Korea's Asiana Airlines, Jeju Air and Jin Air: Suspend all flights
Museum of the Future in numbers
- 78 metres is the height of the museum
- 30,000 square metres is its total area
- 17,000 square metres is the length of the stainless steel facade
- 14 kilometres is the length of LED lights used on the facade
- 1,024 individual pieces make up the exterior
- 7 floors in all, with one for administrative offices
- 2,400 diagonally intersecting steel members frame the torus shape
- 100 species of trees and plants dot the gardens
- Dh145 is the price of a ticket
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Twin%20electric%20motors%20and%20105kWh%20battery%20pack%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E619hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUp%20to%20561km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQ3%20or%20Q4%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh635%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
McIlroy's struggles in 2016/17
European Tour: 6 events, 16 rounds, 5 cuts, 0 wins, 3 top-10s, 4 top-25s, 72,5567 points, ranked 16th
PGA Tour: 8 events, 26 rounds, 6 cuts, 0 wins, 4 top-10s, 5 top-25s, 526 points, ranked 71st
Her most famous song
Aghadan Alqak (Would I Ever Find You Again)?
Would I ever find you again
You, the heaven of my love, my yearning and madness;
You, the kiss to my soul, my cheer and
sadness?
Would your lights ever break the night of my eyes again?
Would I ever find you again?
This world is volume and you're the notion,
This world is night and you're the lifetime,
This world is eyes and you're the vision,
This world is sky and you're the moon time,
Have mercy on the heart that belongs to you.
Lyrics: Al Hadi Adam; Composer: Mohammed Abdel Wahab
More on Quran memorisation:
PLAY-OFF%20DRAW
%3Cp%3EBarcelona%20%20v%20Manchester%20United%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EJuventus%20v%20Nantes%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESporting%20Lisbon%20v%20Midtjylland%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EShakhtar%20Donetsk%20v%20Rennes%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EAjax%20v%20Union%20Berlin%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBayer%20Leverkusen%20v%20Monaco%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESevilla%20v%20PSV%20Eindhoven%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESalzburg%20v%20Roma%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
On Instagram: @WithHopeUAE
Although social media can be harmful to our mental health, paradoxically, one of the antidotes comes with the many social-media accounts devoted to normalising mental-health struggles. With Hope UAE is one of them.
The group, which has about 3,600 followers, was started three years ago by five Emirati women to address the stigma surrounding the subject. Via Instagram, the group recently began featuring personal accounts by Emiratis. The posts are written under the hashtag #mymindmatters, along with a black-and-white photo of the subject holding the group’s signature red balloon.
“Depression is ugly,” says one of the users, Amani. “It paints everything around me and everything in me.”
Saaed, meanwhile, faces the daunting task of caring for four family members with psychological disorders. “I’ve had no support and no resources here to help me,” he says. “It has been, and still is, a one-man battle against the demons of fractured minds.”
In addition to With Hope UAE’s frank social-media presence, the group holds talks and workshops in Dubai. “Change takes time,” Reem Al Ali, vice chairman and a founding member of With Hope UAE, told The National earlier this year. “It won’t happen overnight, and it will take persistent and passionate people to bring about this change.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The biog
Hometown: Birchgrove, Sydney Australia
Age: 59
Favourite TV series: Outlander Netflix series
Favourite place in the UAE: Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque / desert / Louvre Abu Dhabi
Favourite book: Father of our Nation: Collected Quotes of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan
Thing you will miss most about the UAE: My friends and family, Formula 1, having Friday's off, desert adventures, and Arabic culture and people
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
%3Cp%3ECory%20Sandhagen%20v%20Umar%20Nurmagomedov%0D%3Cbr%3ENick%20Diaz%20v%20Vicente%20Luque%0D%3Cbr%3EMichael%20Chiesa%20v%20Tony%20Ferguson%0D%3Cbr%3EDeiveson%20Figueiredo%20v%20Marlon%20Vera%0D%3Cbr%3EMackenzie%20Dern%20v%20Loopy%20Godinez%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETickets%20for%20the%20August%203%20Fight%20Night%2C%20held%20in%20partnership%20with%20the%20Department%20of%20Culture%20and%20Tourism%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20went%20on%20sale%20earlier%20this%20month%2C%20through%20www.etihadarena.ae%20and%20www.ticketmaster.ae.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Favourite Quote: “Real victories are those that protect human life, not those that result from its destruction emerge from its ashes,” by The late king Hussain of Jordan.
Favourite Hobby: Writing and cooking
Favourite Book: The Prophet by Gibran Khalil Gibran
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206-cylinder%203-litre%2C%20with%20petrol%20and%20diesel%20variants%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20286hp%20(petrol)%2C%20249hp%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E450Nm%20(petrol)%2C%20550Nm%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EStarting%20at%20%2469%2C800%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Breaking News: The Remaking of Journalism and Why It Matters Now
Alan Rushbridger, Canongate
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sideup%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202019%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Waleed%20Rashed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cairo%2C%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20technology%2C%20e-commerce%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.2%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Launch%20Africa%20VC%2C%20500%20Global%2C%20Riyadh%20Angels%2C%20Alex%20Angels%2C%20Al%20Tuwaijri%20Fund%20and%20Saudi%20angel%20investor%20Faisal%20Al%20Abdulsalam%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
